A laymans view of economy, markets and other stuff -

tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16709404682109551172012-02-20T13:39:41.376+01:00A laymans view of economy, markets and other stuff -Technical analysis of Major Markets, F/X, and other stuff This is my diary for trading Views expressed in this are only for educational purposes. They ARE NOT recommendations to BUY or SELL anything!! ALL comments and criticisms welcome. House for rent summer 2012 ! http://www.ruralrentlhaurin.commdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.comBlogger2351100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-40819797535333338312012-02-20T13:39:00.002+01:002012-02-20T13:39:41.389+01:00Crude oil heading to 111 target

Crude oil still heading to 111 minimum target short term , and more likely higher medium term CRUDE OIL weekly chart AB leg followed by consolidation, classic BULL FLAG. Now broken up above the top of the flag, could get move to 129, which is where CD = AB leg up. Also coincides with 50% Fib retrace of fall from July 2008 highs. CRUDE DAILY CHART Daily looks like approaching overbought,

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-34423096239776066112012-02-17T12:36:00.000+01:002012-02-17T12:36:04.779+01:00GBPUSD Cable revisited

CABLE WEEKLY CHART Still in large triangle, tested the lower boundary and now rebounded. Also breaking a down trend from 1.67 high in August 2011, so LONGER TERM could be ready to head to the upper boundary at approx 1.65 CABLE DAILY CHART On the daily also looks like the bear case has weakened, and if we break 1.5930 to the upside 1.65 could be possible. Some more consolidation may

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-1906573064000078122012-02-17T09:14:00.001+01:002012-02-17T09:19:02.249+01:00FTSE close to break out ...again

FTSE 1 HOUR CHART The hourly chart shows the uptrend perfectly. Prices are "banging" on the resistance at 5920.. A clean break through here should accelerate the up move, possibly beginning the end of the move.. Looking for a relatively quick move to 6100, to take profits and possibly go SHORT As always there is at LEAST 1 different scenario... A break below the BLUE uptrend line..probably

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-49254019998835064782012-02-16T11:04:00.001+01:002012-02-16T11:04:25.457+01:00Copper back to first support level

Copper still on target for higher levels form the triangle break out pattern. Now retracing at first support 374/373 (previous high) Possible to get move down as low as 365 (retest of the break out level) Basically overbought indicators are now reset.. COPPER DAILY

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-77265073092359840192012-02-16T09:37:00.001+01:002012-02-16T09:37:05.938+01:00Parabolic move AAPL similar to SILVER?

Well AAPL triggered a sell off yesterday rallying as high as 528 before selling off. It is in a parabolic move up, so looking at a chart of silver (which also had a parabolic move up in April 2011) APPLE DAILY CHART Now compare to SILVER daily what happened next??? So the initial fall was 2 days, before it rallied to test the highs again and THEN collapsed. Everybody was

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-56705381587807395142012-02-15T11:25:00.000+01:002012-02-15T11:18:24.532+01:00FTSE and DAX LONG term charts (MONTHLY)

While markets are trading at or near recent highs worth taking a step back with a look at the bigger picture, IE MONTHLY charts. We are not very far off the all time highs. MACD in both cases looks to be turning up (lagging indicator) RSI is NOT overbought SO on a LONG term view these markets could be ready to challenge the ALL TIME HIGHS. BUT shorter term probably due a correction on the

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-46230746768970967312012-02-15T11:15:00.000+01:002012-02-15T11:15:23.332+01:00DAX and FTSE daily

Both trading near resistance levels, and not giving much back so far, which suggests a move higher which could be fast, before a more sizeable correction. FTSE could move to 6100, where there is RESISTANCE DAX 6970 From those levels probability favours move down. FTSE DAILY DAX DAILY

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-15294723111119639722012-02-14T13:24:00.002+01:002012-02-15T11:33:11.669+01:00EURO

Rally from 1.26 to 1.33 has stalled. Is that it? Despite today's downgrades form Moody's the euro recovered after an initial sell off. making recent action more likely to be a CONSOLIDATION of the move up, rather than TOPPING. Key level, 1.30 (a break below there would change scenario to bearish and at least a retest of the lows at 1.26) Otherwise, above that level, suggests a continuation of

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-46480279098462508602012-02-14T13:12:00.001+01:002012-02-14T13:12:37.374+01:00Today

Bad news out of Europe and bears get sucked in again ! FTSE 30 minute chart possible inverse head and shoulders neckline 5920 target 6000 NDX daily chart The Nasdaq has been a leader in the equity rally. Looking at past rallies on the daily chart we can see that we are either nearing a top (UNLIKELY) or (MORE LIKELY) a minor correction of 5-7 % before the rally continues up Especially

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-58670598421342998792012-02-13T14:37:00.001+01:002012-02-13T14:55:21.474+01:00Copper and Crude

Copper has been leading the "RISK" rally since mid December, BUT now looks like a rest is needed with NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE shown on the chart, also coinciding with short term dollar strength... Possible move to as low as 365, but 375 looks more likely before resumption of the trend UP, targeting 440/450 .. COPPER DAILY CRUDE OIL also looks close to breaking our of recent

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-59694593598768918972012-02-09T11:01:00.002+01:002012-02-09T11:01:18.329+01:00FTSE a look at the trend UP..different time frames

4 hour FTSE chart We can see that since end of November the trend is UP.. and we are at a minor resistance near 5915 hence the market consolidating. We may get a push down to the trend line 5775, before pushing through. The FTSE DAILY chart shows resistance more clearly The push above should target 6100 minimum. FTSE WEEKLY chart Above 6100 we target the highs of the FTSE at

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-3236489646904392522012-02-08T12:14:00.000+01:002012-02-08T12:15:04.192+01:00Fake out to the downside Crude and Euro

Crude oil managed to spook yesterday with a nice fake out to the downside, and probably encouraged some short selling and/or triggered stop losses for longs...before reversing sharply higher... 30 min chart below.. So still in the potential BULL FLAG.. and now more likely to see a break above 101 (after a bit of time to digest yesterday's gains) The daily chart shows the FLAG MACD

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-44881672271332905322012-02-07T09:45:00.001+01:002012-02-07T09:46:54.534+01:00Crude oil..still consolidating or forming a top?

Crude oil still in a channel...trending lower, BUT is it a bull flag or topping? Daily chart Personally it looks like after the bottom formed in Oct 11, which showed bullish divergence between Price and RSI, we had a STRONG LEG up to the November high, and since then it looks like it is in consolidation for at LEAST one more leg higher. A significant break of the December lows would

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-25380223140546062752012-02-06T13:09:00.002+01:002012-02-06T13:09:57.781+01:00EURUSD consolidating ready for break higher.

Or it could break lower..BUT EURO short position still large.. As seen in chart below .large speculators SHORT Commercial ..LONG usually commercials are right in medium term European news is OLD HAT!! Even Greece default will have short lived effect on the market, as it has been talked about for so long IMHO Euro daily chart Looking at the 4hr chart below: we can see the

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-2535212520539078362012-02-03T16:45:00.001+01:002012-02-03T16:45:33.504+01:00FTSE almost to 1st target

As pointed out in previous post chart here the FTSE has almost made it the 1st objective at 5915, though we may get a little pop higher to 5960. Looking at the chart below we can see previous resistance at the 5916-5960 level so expecting some sort of correction from there. If we burst through that then 6100 level comes into play. The April 2011 highs.. Weekly chart shows resistance at

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-9240790317466666762012-02-02T13:41:00.000+01:002012-02-02T13:41:05.815+01:00Equity markets in need of a rest?

Looking at the daily charts of many indices it looks like they need a pause at least before moving higher.. here's the DAX DAILY Reasons for a correction 1.RSI in overbought levels 2. Maybe some late longs ie weak longs in near the highs BUT the trend is UP, so unless very nimble best to wait for correction to get long again. also looking at the WEEKLY chart Can see that not

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-52773759716308968422012-02-01T13:49:00.000+01:002012-02-01T13:49:08.334+01:00Longs win again

DAX has broken through it's recent high FTSE still needs to get there Euro on it's way to 1.35 minimum Oil tried to break out of the bull flag yesterday and was pushed back..so probably quite a few longs were stopped out and maybe even more shorts stepped in.. Now need to see how it reacts .if it can hold these levels 98 -99 USD then I think we see another attempt at a breakout, measured

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-5563048307026744742012-01-31T15:12:00.001+01:002012-01-31T15:12:47.085+01:00FTSE and DAX daily

Both markets pulled back yesterday, giving an opportunity to get LONG AGAIN!! However, reading a lot of blogs, listening to CNBC (useful as a CONTRARIAN indicator) it seems still that the majority "don't trust the rally" "forming a top here" "Euro is a sell" So it seems that many will have sold into recent strength and any weakness they take as a sign that the market is now going down. Feels

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-34395084737840193892012-01-31T12:10:00.001+01:002012-01-31T12:10:38.888+01:00Not much has changed

Nothing really has changed for the medium term. Markets pulled back yesterday and are quickly recovering Expecting new highs soon.. quick look at EURUSD WEEKLY vs DOW INDUSTRIAL to see long term perspective.. The outlined areas are where the EURO and the DOW have diverged... €/$ WEEKLY A few scenarios possible BUTwith record short position a move to at least 1.39/1.490 seems likely.

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-31347320926692575612012-01-27T15:21:00.002+01:002012-01-27T15:21:41.722+01:00FTSE another chance to buy?

GDP figs disappoint in US Markets needed a breather BUT getting close to buying levels again good support at 5708 and target for next 2-3 weeks min 6000

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-68719855124393473092012-01-26T11:54:00.000+01:002012-01-26T11:54:10.391+01:00Copper nice move up, time for a rest?

Copper broke out of the triangle and now looks a little over extended on the daily chart...HOWEVER the upside target from the triangle is still in the region of 439.. BUT there should be a pullback soon which would be a good long entry. Maybe even if nimble some small shorts to play the correction could be had...risky against the trend..

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-12436518089235648862012-01-26T11:38:00.001+01:002012-01-26T11:38:20.730+01:00Aussie dollar vs USD ..

Might be time to take some profits if long AUDUSD and wait for pullback for re-entry... Or if really nimble SHORT..but it would be against the trend and for very short term.. Would probably tie in with a pullback in equity markets see previous post here Longer term if triangle break out is not a false one..at a minimum should see this test the highs vs USD at 1.1

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-52187085500007244182012-01-26T09:29:00.000+01:002012-01-26T09:29:11.319+01:00History repeats or rhymes..fractal?

Looking at the DOW daily chart The action so in the red boxes looks pretty similar. Plus we have total disbelief in the rally so far, so expect a dramatic push up for a short term top as happened in the 1st circled area of the 1st red box. Then a similar fall to encourage longs to sell and short sellers, before the market rallies again. So on a big push up would probably be right to sell/

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-83855165056390292422012-01-25T09:37:00.001+01:002012-01-25T09:37:37.089+01:00FTSE perfect retest ..so far!

Perfect retest of the consolidation area in the FTSE at 5720...(so far)...as per yesterday's post click here Today's 4 hr chart so far... Now it needs some follow through to the upside, a break above 5782 brings the next area of resistance into play around the 5810 level.("STICKY AREA"). It's also good to look at other markets eg DAX, COPPER for clues as to possible path for the next few

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-17033701427875123532012-01-24T12:18:00.000+01:002012-01-24T12:18:15.486+01:00Weakness expected..when to buy again?

Dax down 1 %, FTSE down 0.8 % Euro consolidating recent gains.. so when to BUY again? DAX 15 mins chart showing support levels aggressive buy here at 6360 more conservative wait for a confirmed short term bottom and then buy, could even go as low as the GAP DAX 3 hrs DAX daily Also a bit overbought but RSI now out of overbought zone Finally a look at the FTSE 4 hour chart

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-25631814294788547602012-01-23T14:40:00.000+01:002012-01-23T14:40:22.454+01:00Crude thoughts

Looking at the daily chart of Crude (WTI) does it look BULLISH or BEARISH? Interesting things to note..when trend is down and RSI gets to 50 or just above ..it seems right to sell, and conversely when trend is up and RSI drops to 44 it seems right to buy. So where are we now? Trended down from May 2011 to October 2011, possible double bottom at 76 level.. Rallied to 106, and now seems to be

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-74776456364568905982012-01-19T12:54:00.002+01:002012-01-19T12:54:49.171+01:00FTSE stepping back to see the full picture

FTSE monthly chart LONG term view... just for perspective.. If bulls start running could be at minimum challenge of 6100 level, and if that breaks then test of all time highs...SCARY! RSI is neutral, MACD could be in process of turning up

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-26423380141694517672012-01-19T09:58:00.003+01:002012-01-19T09:58:58.761+01:00EURO DAILY, breaking out of falling wedge?

A look at the EURUSD DAILY chart Price action is poking above that descending trend line (upper boundary of the falling wedge). If we get a sustained push expect SHORT covering to come in, and a sharp rally. Sentiment is still BEARISH on the EURUSD and there is still a record SHORT position.. conditions RIPE for a BIG squeeze!!

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-52287525083219654842012-01-19T09:48:00.000+01:002012-01-19T09:48:04.381+01:00DAX a look at 4 time frames nearing resistance at 6400

The DAX has broken through the 6170 resistance and headed to near 6400 quite quickly. This level is the last Major resistance as can be seen in the Weekly chart below. DAX WEEKLY The RSI is not at overbought levels. If we look at the Daily chart below, we can see we are nearing short term overbought, so some rest is needed. HOWEVER looking at FTSE which is close to breaking out at 5720

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-60897582332733198482012-01-18T10:56:00.001+01:002012-01-18T11:02:17.159+01:00FTSE ..consolidating rally from 5330 to 5700

Looking at the 4 hr chart we can see the rally from 20/12/2011 to 04/01/2012 a total of 382 points Since then the market is rangebound with attempts at breaking out over 5720 repelled and selling off to as low as 5580 so far... so it looks like CONSOLIDATION of the move up..which means we should see a break above 5720 resistance in near future.. The DAX seems to have broken resistance at

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-2578436768054386132012-01-12T12:06:00.000+01:002012-01-12T12:06:08.911+01:00DAX update...breaking out

Well the DAX has continued its move upward interspersed with a few scary down moves...(all to shake out weak longs), now we are entering an area where we could see a quick move to 6400... and if we bust through there DON'T BE SHORT!!

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-42922831464607086052012-01-12T10:45:00.000+01:002012-01-12T10:45:25.416+01:00Awaiting ECB, BOE looking at EURUSD and GBPUSD

Looking at the EURUSD chart and awaiting ECB decision... 2 things 1. Markets are always pricing in future developments as perceived by investors 2. Market knows and has known since teh surprise rate cut by the ECB that interest rates will not be going UP in the Eurozone.. SO ...EURO shorts still at record highs...if we get a move down on the ECB news BEWARE if it is short lived..a move down and

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-91636151071882971642012-01-12T10:25:00.000+01:002012-01-12T10:25:10.594+01:00Some contrarian news

USUALLY when these BIG announcements are made, they tend to be near or at the bottom of the cycle. Managements like to EXTRAPOLATE.( Extend the application of (a method or conclusion, esp. one based on statistics) to an unknown situation by assuming that existing trends will continue or similar methods will be applicable) From experience I remember a lot of lay offs towards the end of 2002...

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-34125738174761095412012-01-10T09:34:00.003+01:002012-01-10T09:34:55.393+01:00EURO weakness coming to an end ...(medium term)

There are record numbers of EURO shorts and looking at the DAILY chart of EURUSD we can see some positive divergences building ..POSITIVE DIVERGENCE between PRICE and RSI. This is when the PRICE reaches a NEW LOW, but the RSI doesn't This is highlighted on the chart (first circled area) and the current situation in the 2nd circled area. On the EURJPY the divergence is clear on the WEEKLY

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-85712274134431286172012-01-10T09:14:00.001+01:002012-01-10T09:14:37.591+01:00Yesterday and TODAY

Well yesterday's late fall in the markets with the DAX trading for a brief moment below 6000, and the FTSE approached 5600, may have been the shake out of WEAK hands, referred to in yesterday's post . Today markets have opened with gaps up of 1 %, may be a bit of back filling before a push higher. KEY levels DAX 6170 FTSE 5712 30 minute charts shown below Looking to buy on

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-40139545392206124952012-01-09T15:17:00.002+01:002012-01-09T15:17:21.131+01:00FTSE still on track for higher levels..

FTSE has been working off overbought conditions..now looking like either one more small drop to 5560 or we are on our way higher.. FTSE 3 hour chart The DAX also looking similar.. DAX daily chart DAX 3 hour chart Obviously if we get any bad "NEWS" out of the MERKOZY affair the short term may be a bit more volatile.. BUT longer term once the "sell the news" crowd have

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-49311682109061402182012-01-03T15:06:00.002+01:002012-01-03T15:06:57.201+01:00New YEAR !! 2012 rally...!

Will it be the "end of the world as we know it?" .. Probably not ! DAX and FTSE are breaking our of downtrends /triangle formations..Copper close to breaking out of a triangle as well.. DAX has some tough resistance between 6170 and 6400 above 6400 and clear skies above...target 7200 Also Euro pairs look like finding support and with HUGE short positions a rally above key levels may

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-49630247976390558312011-12-22T16:11:00.001+01:002011-12-22T16:11:47.584+01:00Quiet Xmas markets

With Xmas only 4 days away things are quiet but mildly bullish... here's a 4 hr chart of the DOW with a bullish inverse head and shoulder Neckline at 12230.. and if we bust through that and a possible retest, target could be +1000 points higher... Maybe not before Xmas but could be for Q1 2012 DAX and FTSE have also broken out of recent down trend which could have been FALLING WEDGES..

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-22349608916275053302011-12-09T10:25:00.001+01:002011-12-09T10:34:06.020+01:00DAX Elliott waves for FUN

Not an expert so more a bit of mental masturbation and a bit of fun whilst waiting for the NEWS !! So it seems everybody is bearish again; VIX at high levels, "shoot sell first , ask questions later" mentality prevailing, well to some the recent fall in the markets may just be a correction of the big run up from 25 Nov lows. Of course the DAX has been sold more than others (Germany at core of

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-89825505568808383572011-12-08T11:55:00.001+01:002011-12-08T12:03:39.978+01:00Waiting for Godot...

Markets marking time especially currency markets... waiting for the BIG news out of the EU summit.. both charts show the tight range we have eben in since the day the world's Central Banks announced tehir concerted action, resulting in the big spike on November 30th. Nothing to do but wait ! The AUDUSD looks like it wants to break higher through the 1.029 /1.02 level. EURO looks like it has

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-46769528687753199812011-12-07T10:18:00.001+01:002011-12-07T10:44:24.333+01:00CABLE head and shoulders or Double Bottom?

Like many indices it seems that most are universally BEARISH on cable, euro and Aussie dollar vs dollar. Looking at the daily CABLE (£/$) chart The BEAR case (head and shoulders) is clearly outlined and would target 1.40 or lower However there is pretty strong support mid term at the 1.53 level..and we may have already bottomed or one more dip lower before we rally. Also we seems to have

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-83340900419172948842011-12-07T10:04:00.001+01:002011-12-07T10:11:09.645+01:00DAX daily..toasted bears on menu?

Yesterday the DAX gapped lower, but today has GAPPED higher.. We are still near the "obvious" resistance" and psychologically many will be looking for the FALL from here. Maybe. BUT if yesterday was the extent of the selling and many are short then the SURPRISE move will be higher and once we breach the "obvious resistance" the next level will be 6400 fairly quickly, where we may pause and

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-79197390005587686092011-12-06T08:40:00.001+01:002011-12-06T08:49:26.880+01:00Time for a rest?

Well after the big run up last week, looks like markets want a rest. Looking at FTSE 4 hr chart, after the break out from that channel, we COULD go as low to retest that channel, but I would say doubtful . More likely we see some weakness maybe as low as 5400, before the rally gets going again.. CAVEAT: Obviously if we get some "news" out of Europe by end of the week it may accentuate the

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-60923583791680621832011-12-01T11:12:00.001+01:002011-12-01T11:17:56.129+01:00DAX daily ..BULL FLAG

When markets are showing similar patterns usually reinforces the analysis. The DAX also broke what now looks like a BIG bull flag on the daily chart. If so, and referring to my trusted Edwards and Magee, the measured move would be to approx 7200 !! With a lot of skepticism in the market this could be achieved in the next couple of months. 6145 levels looks like the "OBVIOUS" resistance

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-70444205605209751572011-12-01T10:26:00.001+01:002011-12-01T10:31:07.215+01:00FTSE daily update

After yesterday's post , the Central Bank action pushed FTSE through that channel. Reading press and other media, there is still a lot of disbelief in the "rally", so am expecting a relatively small pullback, and another push higher before a more meaningful pullback... Longer term it seems that there will be a lot of money looking for return, and the world will be awash with liquidity.

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-41186481724864347032011-11-30T12:29:00.001+01:002011-11-30T12:32:20.002+01:00The UBER bullish scenario..FTSE...

Well today it looks like quite a few markets are breaking out of what looks like BULL FLAGS on daily charts..albeit quite BIG ones! As the markets usually like to throw curve balls and the world press are super negative and bearish...what IF??? Just a thought to keep at the back of one's mind... (that plus the Falling wedges in FX may me adding up to a not so bearish future..medium term)

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-35775127454105229622011-11-30T09:16:00.001+01:002011-11-30T09:23:33.090+01:00EURO DOLLAR falling wedge (bullish)

Additional notes after re-reading my Edwards and Magee "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"...unlike a Rising Wedge ("When prices break out of a Rising Wedge they usually fall away rapidly"), in a Falling Wedge "they are more apt to drift sidewise or in a dull "saucering-around" movement before they begin to rise" May not be applicable to FX ..but worth watching..

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-38304154883097699012011-11-30T09:13:00.001+01:002011-11-30T09:16:07.796+01:00Still BAD news...

European news (bad news) still dominating Financial press and TV media, everybody assuming the rally is a "flash in the pan"...and that EUROPE is DOOMED!! Still too much negativity.. Expecting a lot of churning still at these levels..buy on weakness

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-36758094814843082362011-11-29T12:03:00.001+01:002011-11-29T12:15:04.062+01:00Commodities

SILVER Silver...seems to be at support..around 30 USD. could have a move up to 35, and ideally a move up to 38/40 where it may be a SHORT COPPER Copper also looks like finding support at around 325.. Move to 400? on the cards CRUDE OIL Slightly different chart... Broke uptrend last week...now is that enough of a breather for a run to new highs? Was overbought, recent sell off has reset

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-21275246263402544712011-11-29T10:25:00.001+01:002011-11-29T10:34:45.090+01:00DAX daily update

Well the fall out of the chop was a little deeper than expected..BUT we are still in a channel and now approaching a key level 5785.. a break above that and the rally is back on...otherwise we may just trade in the channel. Things to note.. 1. Despite all the negative news markets have not "fallen out of bed" ie they have only given up between 50 - 70 % of the rally from October lows 2. The

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-80270047309211066202011-11-23T15:08:00.001+01:002011-11-23T15:10:51.312+01:00ALL BAD NEWS?!!!

FT and Marketwatch headlines for today...all negative news..note to self BEWARE of being short at these levels.. Many blogs are touting end of the world scenarios and 2008 comparisons Holiday in US quiet trading for rest of week

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-72611629293451462462011-11-18T17:29:00.001+01:002011-11-18T17:30:48.056+01:00Crude ready for a correction?

The news channels (CNBC etc) all highlighting crude as it hit 103 yesterday...not being a CYNIC but usually they get excited at the top of the market, anyway the chart shows crude had been straight up (more or less) since Oct 4 Time for a breather?

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-32275123795092277952011-11-18T17:04:00.001+01:002011-11-18T17:18:52.278+01:00DAX daily A look at the CHOP!!

Well July to September was a noce move down and the rally off the lows in October was also a good tradeable move...NOW we are in that circle of CHOP/// Note: Key is preservation of capital... Personally I feel the bullish scenario will win once this chop is over..too many bears looking for the drop, high VIX (volatility), and DESPITE the bad news, EU coming to an end, blah blah blah...we

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0Battle Ln, Marden, Kent TN12 9, UK51.17934297928927 0.5273437541.818234979289265 -19.68750025 60.54045097928927 20.74218775tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-3028264397064446412011-11-11T14:49:00.001+01:002011-11-11T14:56:46.883+01:00DAX 4 hours...bigger picture

Well the negative news seems to not be able to drive the market significantly lower SO it seems that it will go higher... Looking at the DAX 4 hr chart 2 scenarios THE BEARISH CASE possible H&S pattern with neckline at around 5730 (tested yesterday) and a price target of 5000 (September lows) THE BULLISH CASE We moved up from 23rd Sept low and have now retraced 50% of the move up (A to B), and

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-21708731392323281812011-11-09T18:27:00.000+01:002011-11-09T18:27:17.470+01:00DAX 2 hours

Well Europe still dominating the news and a lot of nervousness...but maybe too much for a serious market break down? DAX 2 hours support at 5735 if we break down significantly may head to test lows at 5000..BUT probably a lot of market participants looking for the fall so BEWARE if a false break occurs, could be the thing that ignites the SANTA rally...and then head to 7000 before falling

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-8870923708323111792011-10-06T08:08:00.000+02:002011-10-06T08:08:35.862+02:00Copper..short /medium term buy?

Pretty self explanatory..looks like we are in the "buy" zone, and good stop level (if we go below the red zone, history shows it can be a fast move down) not far away...anywhere near the blueish line ...a sell..

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-81750708811001706732011-10-05T06:40:00.000+02:002011-10-05T06:40:03.486+02:00AUDUSD possible count

If we have completed a wave 3 the next move up will be a choppy wave 4, possibly to underside of wave 1. Then new lows.. This would tie in with a 4rth quarter rally in all risk assets (equities, commodities etc), and obviously a weakening of the US dollar vs most major currencies...

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-29131692695130769022011-09-18T21:05:00.000+02:002011-09-18T21:05:23.978+02:00DOW charts daily and monthly

Daily chart shows support and resistance..shaded areas.. We may be in process of forming bear flag..possibly still some higher prices to come. A break of 11,000 may signal start of next down leg. So probably more range bound trading for a while. before a decisive move (probability? 70% to downside?) Weekly chart shows MACD turning down...and looks like crossing to downside...look at

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-28443089238394686742011-03-10T10:34:00.000+01:002011-03-10T10:34:42.100+01:00DOW...flag? parallelogram

DOW 2 hr chart shows a potential flag/parallelogram if it breaks down target 11800.. IF !

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-19633242778215834172011-03-10T10:29:00.000+01:002011-03-10T10:29:39.188+01:00DAX 1 hr and 2 hr charts

DAX 1 hr chart showing classic triangle, false break a couple of days ago..subsequent shoer squeeze mad a lower high again, today we have the break lower. MIND the GAP DOWN...expecting a fill and add to short..if we get a close back in the triangle..stop out 2 hr chart shows longer view and target area, which can be seen to be previous support and resistance area.

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-87287328248449512842011-02-24T03:28:00.000+01:002011-02-24T03:28:26.095+01:00DAX FTSE spread..again

Well the spread went a little higher than anticipated...added to the position..but looks to be coming in now.. The negative divergence still in play, MACD turning down...

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-49229750547953281132011-02-22T21:01:00.001+01:002011-02-22T22:30:40.878+01:00DAX monthly or L O N G T E R M ..!

DAX bumping up against some serious resistance around 7540 level..after breaking out of the 6440 level. Longer term we may see test of that level (6440).. shorter term support at 6950 and resistance around 7540... Key levels to watch... so at 7440 good risk reward ( LONGER term) for a short...a break above 7540 and we test highs @ 8000 !

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-23268134283249000652011-02-03T16:02:00.000+01:002011-02-03T16:02:29.872+01:00SOME more negative divergence CABLE

Shorted at 16210 stop 16320 open target... If we do break higher could be an IHS formation .. best seen on weekly chart Of course being weekly chart important to see a confirmed break out and retest of theneck line..to avoid false breaks.

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-63255826848787472732011-02-02T14:35:00.000+01:002011-02-02T14:35:24.980+01:00FTSE DAX spread UPDATE.....

Following on form previous post...the spread got as high as 1270....now dropping back to 1187. As can be seen on the chart this is setting up an even bigger negative divergence, so we may have a PROPER top in the spread and LONGER term looks like FTSE will outperform the DAX (unless of course it breaks out above that channel.. TA always has alternative scenarios, it's all about probabilities!)

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-35005935885661214632011-01-26T16:44:00.000+01:002011-01-26T16:44:12.236+01:00FTSE DAX spread

Looking at this.. Selling DAX simultaneously buying FTSE especially around 1200 spread.... IF markets start correcting FTSE has traditionally been more defensive than the DAX so in theory the spread should narrow as in previous market corrections/bear trends

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-53810171133843935562011-01-26T16:38:00.000+01:002011-01-26T16:38:27.687+01:00FTSE follow up

Well the FTSE is retesting that broken trend line. Now what? Well the DOW is above 12k, DAX is still struggling against the highs, and actually any selling it seems to lose momentum pretty quickly.... SO my guess is this may turn quite quickly if any selling hits the US mkts. having said that am long FTSE from 5907 trailing stop now at around 5976, any sudden fall and I will be stopped out..

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-39103837052511213272011-01-24T16:52:00.000+01:002011-01-24T16:52:43.732+01:00FTSE topped or consolidating for another push up?

FTSE has broken the short term uptrend Will it repeat the last down trend forming a BULL flag? One month it took...action in yellow circles OR has it topped..? Likely test of the broken trend line at 5990 possible also a test of the highs...

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-84719723790569013912010-12-06T18:42:00.000+01:002010-12-06T18:42:01.007+01:00HI hol Silver

Looks like silver is in final stages of a blow off top...(MAYBE !) But looking at the monthly chart history seems to say that there will be better opportunities to go long silver...(LONGS look higher risk now) When it turns it will be painful....for longs. Timing a top on a parabolic move up is also tricky..!!

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-83520815161716092592010-11-08T12:48:00.000+01:002010-11-08T12:48:13.645+01:00FTSE broke through Resistance...where to?

Looking at monthly... If it keeps going 6500 looks like the target.... IF.....

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-55140343424809231302010-10-05T09:50:00.000+02:002010-10-05T09:50:48.535+02:00FTSE near some tough resistance

FTSE rally hos now reached the down trend line from 2007 high best seen on weekly chart below: FTSE WEEKLY Also on the daily chart looks close to some strong horizontal resistance areas...is there a possible head and shoulders forming ? ssshhhhh... FTSE DAILY Seems like the probability is weighted in favour of a bear move from here, either the BIG one, OR (more likely IMHO) a

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-35036500930143639222010-10-05T09:26:00.000+02:002010-10-05T09:26:52.130+02:00CABLE...

Looks like cable is nearing significant resistance zone... Could be one more move up to 1.65 if the USD carries on being sold.. Longer term view..MONTHLY Chart has worked off the oversold condition at point 3 RSI is now back to neutral level IF wave count is correct longer term should revisit lows ie 1.30 level and possibly more

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-91505442948729963202010-10-04T09:59:00.001+02:002010-10-04T10:29:48.543+02:00DAX breaking down from Diamond formation?

Looks like the Diamond Topping pattern is coming to fruition..with today's action (SO FAR!) http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/2010/10/dax-diamond-formation.html 6124 looks like temporary support, expect a possible retest of the breakdown level around 6200, if we get above 6230 ..back in the range and possible FAILURE of the DIAMOND. If 6124 breaks , 6080/6060 level next support LONGER TERM A

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-43958594968318352332010-10-01T09:55:00.000+02:002010-10-01T09:55:03.577+02:00DAX diamond formation?

"The diamond formation reversal pattern is found relatively infrequently. When it does form, however, it usually does so at market tops rather than at bottoms."

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-66976306029142041622010-09-29T10:27:00.000+02:002010-09-29T10:27:48.683+02:00DAX topping or consolidation?

Dax has been in a range since Feb this year... UPPER BOUNDARY at 6360 Could be an ascending triangle (bullish scenario) with a break above 6360 signalling new highs..OR could be part of a rising wedge (which if it breaks t the downside would be BEARISH). Since we are near the TOP of the range got to be short here, looking for at least a test of the lower boundary, or a decisive break lower (

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-80482551564453085362010-09-21T10:57:00.000+02:002010-09-21T10:57:40.498+02:00BACK.....

Kids BACK to school... Wife BACK to work BACK to looking at the markets... Starting off with some LONG TERM charts... DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL ..The HEADLINE index (the one EVERY one watches, talks about etc) The KEY level seems to be 11200 on the upside... 500 points away.. VOLUME doesn't SEEM to be confirming this move up..... Many BEARS are DESPONDENT and some signs of CAPITULATION Trading

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-88335074352865723752010-08-11T09:02:00.000+02:002010-08-11T09:02:07.811+02:00NO CHANGE!!

Am on holiday, and there is no change for the markets in my view... This previous post sums it up...click on it to see A move above this years high delays the eventual process, but only delays. DAX fractals still there... Am in the UK and the noise on the ground is not good...companes looking to reduce staff further, house prices stalling again...

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-19137252791009407242010-07-17T22:53:00.000+02:002010-07-17T22:53:22.995+02:00

where will DOW be in 10 years time? 20000+ 15000+ 10000+ 5000+ less than 5000 view results Free vote poll

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-58047285901624247182010-07-17T22:37:00.000+02:002010-07-17T22:37:31.837+02:00AUDUSD weekly..

Bear case..I like the 23 week ma moving below the 50 week ma ..just...waiting to see if we get a more decisive move down..or if this is consolidation for a move higher... We could be forming a bear flag for the next move down in which case I expect a break of the "flash crash" lows around 80.. if we are in a bull run a move above 89/90 means new highs or at least a test of the old highs

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-6783357726659678472010-07-13T16:24:00.000+02:002010-07-13T16:24:23.135+02:00FRACTALS

Looking at DAX weekly something caught my eye..maybe it's the heat! The areas highlighted by rectangles look similar,,looks like one more thrust up to test resistance at 6340..then a pull back..one more test and ...F A L L A break above 6340 (clear)

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-69579149003337961812010-07-01T11:12:00.000+02:002010-07-01T11:12:46.571+02:00USDJPY

Seems like YEN strength vs dollar = weak equity markets, so here's the USDJPY weekly.. Looks like tracing out a triangle, and a break below the lower line could tie in with a BIG fall in equity markets. May be that we stay in the range for a while longer, as it is a weekly chart...but more warning signs??

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-39468728818865151482010-07-01T11:03:00.000+02:002010-07-01T11:03:30.729+02:00DOW very LONG TERM

Just trawling through charts, here's DOW Industrial with lines drawn from a while ago, the arrows are recently added...

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-12208171345543377382010-07-01T10:23:00.000+02:002010-07-01T10:23:26.001+02:00EURO GBP short term bottom or near?

Haven't looked at EURGBP for a while (due to personal circumstances been out for a while), but we broke down through 0.8455, but we have hit the lower descending trend line at around 0.8100 and bounced. This looks like could be key, though we are still in a DOWN TREND, may be a warning that EURO may have a period of strength vs Pound (which ties in with the previous post on cable). Obviously a

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-14957299623031234722010-07-01T09:38:00.000+02:002010-07-01T09:38:02.260+02:00CABLE

Recent rally "looks" like it could be ending, if so we could see 1.41 at a minimum over medium term.

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-1038158259083223032010-06-30T12:46:00.000+02:002010-06-30T12:46:54.622+02:00DAX BIG head and shoulders still possible

Here's the chart from March 2010 and here is the one as of today...we are still in that large formation A break through that red dashed line and all hell breaks loose , until then looks like we are still in that range 5600-6300 approx

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-54282945788768291842010-06-30T09:53:00.000+02:002010-06-30T09:53:01.123+02:00BP

Will BP go bust? Looking at the daily weekly and monthly charts..only the daily is showing some signs of a bottom (some positive divergence). Would be good to see it on the weekly and monthly as well..one to keep an eye on. Doubt it will go bust too many vested interests.. (40% of it's shareholders are based in the US, BP probably a large part of most pension funds, UK government will miss

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-39008819668920999522010-05-25T09:56:00.000+02:002010-05-25T09:56:05.736+02:00DAX 3 hrs

Everybody starting to get bearish...am looking at 5500/5400 for support and possible LONG entry (if we get there)..alternatively selling 5750 may be the other trade to look for. Looks like we are in a wave 5 down..so once finished could get a decent upward correction, or if really bullish a push to new highs..

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-8048297306098771852010-05-19T19:05:00.000+02:002010-05-19T19:05:52.130+02:00DAX head n shoulders?

Looks like a H&S playing out..we have broken the neckline, now need some follow through target 5700..the daily chart shows a possible bullish scenario...

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-61794317266021042832010-05-19T18:15:00.000+02:002010-05-19T18:15:56.230+02:00Gold weakness

Gold weaker today...WHY? Simply overbought so some profit taking...looking to buy it on weakness..especially if it gets to 1160 ish.. Target is still 1348 min..

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-6115927211170319362010-05-18T17:56:00.000+02:002010-05-18T17:56:09.134+02:00AUDUSD longer term nearing support at 8570

A break below 8570 and targets will be the 200 dma and 100 dma around 8300

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-70351643611560488152010-05-14T13:55:00.000+02:002010-05-14T13:55:48.968+02:00EURO L O N G T E R M

Monthly chart of EURO are we heading for 1.14? Which also coincides roughly with 61.8 % retracement of the rally from November 2000... Then it may be the turn of the US dollar to collapse....

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-31685466787430153292010-05-10T09:36:00.000+02:002010-05-10T09:36:13.506+02:00DAX 30 mins

Short term look at DAX..expecting volatile few days or even couple of weeks after Thursday's rout in US indices. Circles show areas of congestion..price at moment looks like breaking out but needs to be confirmed.

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-24183123910460811912010-03-30T19:46:00.000+02:002010-03-30T19:46:37.299+02:00reflective time...

An aside from the markets.. Now we are coming up to summer ..(at least in S Spain) and the clouds are clearing ..thank God !!...we are finally getting to the task of clearing the land..and need to get the vegetables in the ground.. With the weird weather across Europe and especially down here..it seems that we are in store for higher food prices..some early vegetables have been wiped out by

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-70910774879871242792010-03-11T13:24:00.000+01:002010-03-11T13:24:30.223+01:00Euro daily basing or consolidating?

Couple of possible scenarios. For now looks like we will get a choppy rally up in wave iv before a wave v down.. IF the move down has finished we should see some good mini rallies to signal a change in trend

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-60109000082703371782010-03-08T18:06:00.000+01:002010-03-08T18:06:42.024+01:00DAX daily

Whilst bullish sentiment is still rising..with the markets..the DAX seems to be lagging.. We COULD be in the final move of an abc correction which when finished will herald a large move down.. The DAX has lagged other major indices, when usually it is LEADING the indices higher... OF course all can change, but MAY be a WARNING against the decidedly bullish sentiment prevailing.

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-10391115952763078522010-03-04T09:14:00.000+01:002010-03-04T09:14:16.652+01:00DAX..

4 hr chart of DAX

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-78333867628359248062010-03-03T14:50:00.000+01:002010-03-03T14:50:21.530+01:00Why figures are meaningless!

Jobs figures are meaningless! As is most data from the govt or associated "independent" bodies. The figures today came out "better than expected"...BUT the fine print tells us that last month the data was WORSE than originally reported! "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." ..M Twain

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-42005826847854055192010-03-03T11:24:00.000+01:002010-03-03T11:24:49.500+01:00DOW bull back..or pull back?

Looking at the rally from March 09 we can see 3 drives up.. a break of the up trend and now in a rally question is "Is this part of the correction of March 09 rally?" OR "is this the start of another leg up?" BEAR CASE.. 1. We have 3 drives up, so would expect a "correction" at least 2. Current correction has not even retraced 23.6 % of the rally..normally would expect to at elast 38.2

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-21489414488066218782010-02-25T21:52:00.000+01:002010-02-25T21:52:27.734+01:00EURGBP

Well this went further than I thought..BUT like the AUDUSD chart from 23/02/10 AUDUSD the negative divergence set up is looking better with a new high and RSI flat. And the STOP for a short is close by so RISK/REWARD looks good as well. GBPUSD looks like it is close to target so with Greece and other countries weighing on the €, maybe £ will start to outperform again vs Euro.

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-34764144173088078062010-02-24T19:11:00.001+01:002010-02-24T19:12:28.265+01:00Dow Transport

Looking at this chart, it looks like the next big move should be down in equity indices, regardless of whether one is a BULL or a BEAR. The weekly chart shows 5 clear thrusts up, a break of the uptrend. Then 1 move down, and at the moment in a rally. If this is a correction of the March 09 rally, it seems too shallow, a 38,2 % or even a 50 % retrace would "look" better. Then if it's a bull, a

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1670940468210955117.post-22511099048753914132010-02-23T19:15:00.000+01:002010-02-23T19:15:23.391+01:00AUDUSD

Trade on track..looks like the rally off the 7th Feb low has finished, tagged a 61.8% Fib level retrace at 9040, now at support 8879. Looking for a re test of broken trend line at 8960 ish for re short... refer to previous posts correction ended or beginning and divergences continued.. if thi i next leg down...we could have a long way to go

mdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14058267443357878609noreply@blogger.com0