A look at the DAX

So yesterday was a strong rally day - have markets turned the corner.

All the talking heads were very bullish and still talking about bottoms (market ones!)

- that to me is a warning that it ain't over yet.

After 11 or 12 days down - it is NORMAL to get a counter trend  - 2-3 days or sometimes an extended correction 7 days..

Bear market rallies are VICIOUS - as real buyers step in and short sellers also cover positions

Remember VOLATILITY will continue, there will be wild moves, you have to be NIMBLE.  

Most traders lose money in bear markets - due to the volatility

DAX rising wedge - tends to be a bearish formation

at the moment midday London time, it looks like a failed break out or throw-over..but that could change during the next 3-4 hours.  

Key level - if break to downside 11400 , probability of down trend continuing increases.

Conversely follow through above 11575  favours 11700-11780 (test of neckline of heand and shoulders**)

**  Remember if patterns fail the move can be dramatic in the opposite direction, i.e. if a head and shoulders top fails a sizeable rally would probably occur

Probably/probability/  looking at charts is not predicting moves but working out probabilities of certain events happening - sometimes more than 2 options may be seen