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Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

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Friday, November 16, 2018

Battle at the line - a look at the DJI

markets are still volatile with large intra-day moves
It seems that buyers are stepping in on the falls and sellers are selling the rallies..

At some point one side will dominate...

at the moment based on charts - the bears have the upper hand..

Look at the DOW first.
Monthly chart gives perspective...
It shows the extend of the rally.

At a minimum it should correct the rally from 2016, and looking at Fibonacci levels, 23.8 % would be around 24k.
38.2 % would be 22500, or thereabouts
61.8 % level is 19700  (BIG correction) - this level may tie in with a correction of the rally from 2008 i.e. a larger correction.

IF this is a correction of the rally from 2008 (about 7k to 27k) the corresponding fib levels would be:
23.8 % - c 22k
38.2 % 19k
61.8 % 14300  -

Notice that 61.8 % level of the smaller correction is similar to the  38.2 % level of the larger correction (KEEP 19k in mind)

ALSO notice the negative divergences between price and RSI which is a clue that a decline is on the cards


Zooming in to the weekly; shows key levels a bit clearer


Finally even shorter term , the DOW daily

This shows the battle between buyers and sellers at that trend line, with a break and then rally, and again another break.
The next post will be about the psychology of these breaks of trend, ANIMAL BEHAVIOUR - (or if you're precious about the human race , HUMAN behaviour)


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