G(20) - whizz - friends again?

Some of the statements made by Trump after the G20

"If it happens it goes down as one of the largest deals ever made"  

“was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China”.

"amazing and productive." 

"a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial"

This is to be expected based on past form, and yesterday it continued regarding car tariffs.

So what have we had?

A rally based on Fed chairman Powell - back tracking - 

A rally based on a "truce" between China and USa in their trade war.

Turning on the TV to listen to CNBC the media machine is in full force pushing the bullish side.

Comments like " the Santa rally is here", " we've had the correction and now it's time to buy", "the worries about interest rates and trade wars have receded" - to me it seems everyone is bullish.

Look at the charts (a picture of the behaviour of all active participants in that instrument).

DOW JONES (headline index)

Monthly chart

Not much changed on the longer term - still showing negative divergence between price and RSI

Target price still there 23150 (approx) trendline support and horizontal support (look left)

Closer look

DOW weekly 

RSI not oversold
At a minimum expect it to test 23150 ish
behaviour then will give clues to next pathway
1.  a fall through there and this may be a full blown bear market
2 a hold there and rally may be sign that this is a correction and now on way to new highs

As always makrets are dynamic keep eye on levels and probabilities

Even closer look

DJI daily
So could be forming a triangle  - watch the boundaries
at present we are near the top so short - obviously a sustained break above would increase chances that this correction is over
A break below the lower boundary - and target comes onto play and maybe more

   Other thoughts

Everyone is expecting a santa rally into year end
Bull market is 10 years old
Earnings outlook for 2019 may be getting cloudy