Euro bottoming vs the dollar?

Interesting in the FX market - dollar strength has dominated but is there a change afoot?

could target 1.18 of it breaks out to the upside

Finally a break out to the upside imminent

Are the markets poised to break higher..finally?
The consolidation has been longer than expected BUT
the downside has been limited
the weak longs are probably shaken out
the bears have been given some hope

so NOW the market may be ready for new highs

FTSE  4 hr chart
A break above 6426 and holding should mean a new high for the FTSE.
and eventually possible all time high

DAX

Similar to FTSE long consolidation after rally from November.  Again, despite only giving back max 4% the sentiment has been increasingly bearish.

Next hurdle for DAX is 7865

Euro vs USD

All currencies have been weak vs the USD recently. On the Euro daily chart it looks like some positive divergence creeping in.  Euro may be due for a rally, and conversely the dollar due a fall?

AAPL

still not getting any love and hatred increasing. 406 next support after that 380
Yesterday finally filled a gap
Despite AAPL falling NDX has been holding well, if/when AAPL rallies NDX has a bull flag target of 2900

Quick look at NDX

Can't see the wood for the trees!

Imagine looking at an oil painting from a distance of a couple of inches? You would not see much of the whole picture, a few splodges of paint.

Sometime charts can be like that especially if one is looking at them day in day out.  So at times it is best to STAND back so one can see the whole picture. That is look at the LONGER time frames, like the Monthly and Weekly charts.  Then it may become clearer what that picture is telling one!

Monthly Charts below
Pretty self explanatory

AUDUSD

CABLE

EURUSD

FTSE

DAX

DJIA

EURUSD top? AAPL bottom?

Euro has rallied off the 1,30 level quickly.

Is this it?

I don't think so..
1.33 was tested 3 times and pushed the rally back..NOW we are above that level, so we should now have support at 1.33 or close by.

How far can it go?

On the daily looks like 1.35 is reasonable short term target before a pullback

EURUSD daily

EURUSD weekly

On the weekly there is one rally followed by corrective action (Bull flag) no broken out and target could be as high as 1.40

AAPL daily chart

Still showing signs of positive divergence with price and RSI

Right angle triangle 

500 support (psychological level)

May get broken just because so many are watching that level.. a break may clear out the last weak hands and then rally, or it may start a new leg down..BUT it seems the NEGATIVE NEWS may already be priced in with the fall from 700.

click on links to see the stories

Sentiment wise everyone is negative, and yesterday front page of Market watch was FULL of bearish stories on AAPL, from cutting production to new competition from Linux based phones.  One positive story stating AAPL is cheap at 500 USD

2013 quick look

Quick look at the first day of trading.

FC resolved (Fiscal Cliff)

Underlying trend has been and will continue to be up; liquidity picture has not changed and Japan wants dollar yen to 90 will add more liquidity to global financial system.  Retail investors have shunned equities for a few years now.  US markets have been under-performing Europe recently, so expecting catch up, especially in the TECH sector which has been hard hit buy AAPL.

Pluses for continued upside:
Global liquidity
Transports breaking higher
European indices breaking higher
China



FTSE

December post shows FTSE breaking out, here

Looks like this will continue and head towards 6100 where stiff resistance so expecting a retrace near there. Possible short term short scalps..but safer play will be buy the dip.

DAX

 daily similar to FTSE heading to 8,000

Weekly chart shows levels more clearly

some FX

EURUSD  previous post here
Still on track for higher levels..
best guess is break 1,33 to go to 1,34..then a pull back before heading higher.

Cable  GBPUSD

Declining resistance near 1.64
1.63 also resistance
breaking 1.63 targets 1.68
extreme upside target (unlikely) 1.72

EURUSD on track for target

EURUSD

Looks to be on track for target
maybe as early as 1st week of Jan..if it can break above 1.32 soon

EURUSD long term chart

Monthly chart

So far the rally off the recent low doesn't "look" complete.  Not to say we don't have a couple of red candles, nothing goes up in a straight line, BUT the declining trend line resistance seems a reasonable HIGH target, (1.40) or lower target 1.34

EURUSD LONG?

Weekly chart

starting to show signs of positive divergence, ideally a test of recent lows to reinforce the signal.
Shorts still at LARGE!

Daily chart

EURO approaching support

The EURO  (vs USD) is approaching support
sentiment is VERY negative
so conditions are ripe for a surprise to the UPSIDE..

EURO daily approaching head and shoulders target at 1.2520

Weekly

shows support.

Euro decided?

Looks like the EURUSD has decided which way it's going and for NOW that seems to be down.

Broken support at 1.30/1.2960
Target 1.2510

Close stop @ 1.30 (tight) or 1.3055 (looser)

Daily chart (yesterday's close)

EURO daily

The €/$ (EURUSD) is hovering at support near 1.30, TRIANGLE or Head n shoulders?

Similar to COPPER chart in that we could see a false break lower, followed by a strong rally...

Or  a move lower and test of the lows at 1.26

break though neckline or triangle lower boundary , target is 1.2550


Break through upper boundary triangle , target is 1.3790

EURUSD consolidating ready for break higher.

Or it could break lower..BUT EURO short position still large..
As seen in chart below .large speculators SHORT
Commercial ..LONG

usually commercials are right in medium term

European news is OLD HAT!!
Even Greece default will have short lived effect on the market, as it has been talked about for so long IMHO

Euro daily chart

Looking at the 4hr chart below: we can see the consolidation pattern clearer.  We may have a "fake out move" to the downside before the break out up. Maybe...

Not much has changed

Nothing really has changed for the medium term.
Markets pulled back yesterday and are quickly recovering
Expecting new highs soon..

quick look at EURUSD WEEKLY vs DOW INDUSTRIAL  to see long term perspective..

The outlined areas are where the EURO and the DOW have diverged...

€/$ WEEKLY 

A few scenarios possible  BUT
with record short position a move to at least 1.39/1.490 seems likely.

and above there maybe even as high as 1.44

A break above the large channel  would see new highs..BUT more likely form 1.44 it starts to head lower again

EURO DAILY, breaking out of falling wedge?

A look at the EURUSD DAILY chart

Price action is poking above that descending trend line (upper boundary of the falling wedge).  If we get a sustained push expect SHORT covering to come in, and a sharp rally.  Sentiment is still BEARISH on the EURUSD and there is still a record SHORT position.. conditions RIPE for a BIG squeeze!!

Awaiting ECB, BOE looking at EURUSD and GBPUSD

Looking at the EURUSD chart and awaiting ECB decision... 2 things
1. Markets are always pricing in future developments as perceived by investors
2. Market knows and has known since teh surprise rate cut by the ECB that interest rates will not be going UP in the Eurozone..

SO ...EURO shorts still at record highs...if we get a move down on the ECB news BEWARE if it is short lived..a move down and rally could be the start of a bigger short squeeze.. see chart here

Looking at cable...slightly different scenario...looks like sentiment has turned very negative and many are highlighting the break to new lows and support at 1.53.  Also many pointing out the BEARISH HEAD and SHOULDERS formation.

However, a move to 1.52 would bring in trendline support, and if EURO rallies against dollar the it is hard to see cable falling dramatically.  So a quick shake out and a rally may be on the cards...

Remember H&S patterns have a high probability of failure.   That said if the selling does accelerate, then one would have to go with it.

EURO weakness coming to an end ...(medium term)

There are record numbers of EURO shorts and looking at the DAILY chart of EURUSD we can see some positive divergences building ..POSITIVE DIVERGENCE between PRICE and RSI.  


This is when the PRICE reaches a NEW LOW, but the RSI doesn't


This is highlighted on the chart (first circled area) and the current situation in the 2nd circled area.

On the EURJPY the divergence is clear on the WEEKLY chart each time generating a short squeeze rally.