Crude oil

Crude daily

85 dollar target? From breakdown of TRIANGLE

Major support at 80

Copper and Crude

Copper has been leading the "RISK" rally since mid December, BUT now looks like a rest is needed with NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE shown on the chart, also coinciding with short term dollar strength...

Possible move to as low as 365, but 375 looks more likely before resumption of the trend UP, targeting 440/450 ..

COPPER DAILY 

CRUDE OIL also looks close to breaking our of recent consolidation and a move above 100/101 could start the next leg up there targeting 114 minimum..

FTSE and DAX daily

Both markets pulled back yesterday, giving an opportunity to get LONG AGAIN!!
However, reading a lot of blogs, listening to CNBC (useful as a CONTRARIAN indicator) it seems still that the majority

"don't trust the rally"
"forming a top here"
"Euro is a sell"

So it seems that many will have sold into recent strength and any weakness they take as a sign that the market is now going down.  Feels like the markets will do the opposite and are winding up for a fast break North!

Crude oil also breaking out above 100.5  see previous post here

Crude thoughts

Looking at the daily chart of Crude (WTI)  does it look BULLISH or BEARISH?

Interesting things to note..when trend is down and RSI gets to 50 or just above ..it seems right to sell, and conversely when trend is up and RSI drops to 44 it seems right to buy.




So where are we now?


Trended down from May 2011 to October 2011, possible double bottom at 76 level..


Rallied to 106, and now seems to be consolidating (or TOPPING).  Support seems to be at 93.

So what if we take a BIGGER view i.e. step back and look at the longer term?

Look at the weekly chart.

After the rally to all time highs ($190) in 2008 Crude collapsed and traded down to 62.  

Now it has traded in a range with slight upward bias, retracing just over 38.2 % of the big fall from 190.

so basing or another leg down?

Resistance at 106 a break above that and we may see a new leg up (possibly coinciding with equity markets rally)

A break below 90 and we may retest the recent lows (70 $)

Looking at the general trends in the developing world it would seem that demand for oil will only go up in the future, especially looking at Africa, S America and Asia.  Plus tensions in Iran, Nigeria etc may also support higher oil prices.