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Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius

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Showing posts with label markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label markets. Show all posts

Thursday, October 30, 2008

DAX time for a correction?


DAX has rallied 25 % off the low at 4000, too much too soon? On shorter term charts also showing a wedge formation (usually bearish), once we break below we should see a correction of this rally - if not new market lows...ALso volume has been falling on the rally...maybe a throwover of top line then - fall..

As I said in previous posts..we need to build a base for a longer term sustainable rally..

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

too much , too soon? or too much - too late?


Markets rally 10 % in ONE day !- mainly shorts covering positions, and the fact that markets are SEVERELY oversold SHORT TERM.. - so what does that mean? Mainly that long term investors have not had time to commit "new" money to the market...LONGER term problems have not been solved - expect more volatile trading and possibly one more LEG down..


so what would be ideal ? Another test of the lows and a few weeks trading near the lows - giving time to build a base the (maybe) we can move up over the medium term....

Quick moves like yesterdays are hot air - and when it cools down it all comes crashing down again -


Interest rates cut to 1% in US of A - will it really make a difference? to the main news headlines it will - and MAYBE add a little confidence to the market - BUT in reality the problems we face are caused by too much debt and too few savings...cutting to 1% hardly encouraging new savings! Plus with all the liquidity being given to banks interest rates are effectively already at 1 % or lower - but not to the MAN in the street....

Saturday, October 4, 2008

BAIL OUT? Or time to BALE out?

After much arm bending and the scariness of last Mondays 700 point fall in the DOW, the US govt got their way!! (We knew they would) - the markets rallied ahead of the "expected" then fell on the news - the classic buy the rumour sell the news....

NOW WHAT?? Well...it doesn't REALLY solve anything fundamentally...the real problem is housing and falling prices...something everybody will just have to work through....however what does it mean for the markets?

MY own HO; we are close to a short term bottom..(1-2 weeks away)...then election fever will kick in, a bit of optimism following the initial negative reaction.

another few big down days will have me looking for longs in the markets..will post charts later

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