Calm before the storm? Or blue skies ahead?

After a strong rally from December lows markets are in a "wait and see mode " - STILL !
Waiting for : trade deal with China (probably priced in - bar the pop on the new)
Waiting for Trump to reach deal with Dems on Border Security (i.e. THE WALL)

Quick look at DAX :

Daily chart from the 7th
Looks like a breakdown from a bear flag
Relative weakness vs other major markets
Look left  - 11550 level if breached might signal change in short term trend - until then medium term downtrend still in force.

DAX 2 hour from today

This shows the break of the recent uptrend
And a rally from oversold levels
could be a test of the broken trend line and then resumption of downtrend  OR
that fall was a fake out and now rallying to test 11550 level

Finally look at weekly DAX
testing the 200 week MA
rally has relieved oversold

Still waiting for resolution

Bulls are cheering and the talking heads have declared the bear market has ended.  read Jim Cramer article here.

Has it?

Well admittedly the rally has lasted about 12 days...

does that mean a BULL market has started?

look at some charts

DOW daily

So far down trend is still intact
clear classic rising wedge  (usually bearish) shows - more often than not there is a throw over (a rally above the upper boundary) which is quickly retraced

Nasdaq daily

bearish wedge
short term trend is up
but down trend still intact
could target 6750-6800

would need a break above 6880-6900 and follow through to start trend change

DAX and FTSE similar

DAX key upside level 11520
FTSE 7131  - Brexit vote  may have an effect

Crude oil

No bottom yet - despite quite oversold conditions
What do the charts say?

Weekly chart - what does it say?

Oversold - BUT price and RSI going to new lows - no divergence yet so selling pressure still evident
Next major support - shaded area, with possible overshoot
If that doesn't hold crude is headed lower

What about shorter time frames?

Crude oil daily

Getting close to oversold
POSSIBLE positive divergence setting up - as a new low with RSI looking like it will not form a new low

Crude 2 hour chart
Stepping down the stairs
Nice bear flags on the move down
Looks like at least one more setting up

Worth keeping eye on especially if it gets to the support highlighted (set alert for 42.9)
once the down move is finished - there should be a decent rally (corrective)

A year on (more or less)....

S&P cash index and Nasdaq 100 cash

Classic break of bearish rising wedge?

Time will tell.

Small short now
Add to short on retest of broken trend line
if falls off the cliff look at short term charts for short-able bounces