Commodities ready to make their move?

Commodities may be bottoming

Gold daily

near support
in down trend still but at bottom of channel and horizontal support close by 1550

Gold weekly

Copper daily

testing lower boundary of triangle (see weekly chart)
rebound to 377? 7%

Copper weekly

Silver daily

closer to support
at bottom of down channel
positive divergence RSI price

Summer ended..

Click prices for links to prior posts

Copper now at 371 
DAX 7350
FTSE 5800
Gold 1740
Silver 33.6


Where now?
DAX weekly

DAX approaching strong overhead and downtrend resistance.  Could be we get a brief push above, before a correction sets in.  However unless the trend changes that will be all it is .. a correction.

FTSE weekly

Also approaching resistance

Needs to break and hold above 5810, for test of 5870/5890

Formidable resistance around 5900.

IF the market can break higher obvious target is 6000

DAX/FTSE spread chart

When there is an uptrend can see that DAX outperforms FTSE.

Reasons? 

1, FTSE is quite heavily weighted with defensive stocks

2, DAX has only 30 stocks compared to FTSE 100, and many are cyclical risk on stocks.

However sometimes the spread widens too much.  For a relatively risk free trade sell DAX buy FTSE at these levels, possibly 200points, before uptrend resumes

When a prolonged market down turn occurs the tables are turned with the FTSE outperforming the DAX, in which case a spread trade can be held for longer

GOLD ..follow up

Looking at the daily chart..

Lots of support at 1525, so only a significant close BELOW that level would turn the chart bearish..
Many  looking at 1540 level as key, so a break there MAY see quick sell..but 1525 looks stronger.
If we break higher out of the large wedge..eventual target would be close to 2000 USD

IF we break 1525 where could it go?  
Previous resistance was 1438 in 2011 and once it broke there 1476 was support on the pullback, so a range of 1438 to 1476 could be possible

GOLD and SILVER

A lot of bearish thoughts out there..so sentiment is pretty negative

Weekly charts for both show that the BULL side may prevail, though with the sentiment so negative it may be that we get a quick fall and even quicker reversal just to mess with the BEARS!

GOLD weekly

Action look similar to 2008 after it made a high then, ie corrective so a plus for the bulls.
The RSI is low
MACD looks like it wants to turn up.

SILVER weekly

The bearish argument rests on the large DESCENDING TRIANGLE, which a majority of time breaks down ie a bearish formation.

However it can also be viewed as a CONTINUATION pattern, ie the trend that was in place before the appearance of the triangle will re-assert itself..in this case UP.

This chart makes me think we will have a quick fall, and then the reversal higher.

Gold ready to shine>

When the media start Gold bashing it is usually a sign of a turn in fortunes.  Gold has been in a down trend since it;s highs earlier this year and in a sideways consolidation since it's all time high in Sept 2011.

It looks like it is breaking out of it's down trend; the real test will b a break above the descending line C, 1710 and then a break of 1800 would target new HIGHS.

GOLD at support

Sentiment seems very BEARISH for GOLD and GOLD stocks..


The best time to buy!

Gold the metal is approaching support as shown in the daily chart.

NEM Newmont mining weekly chart

Approaching 61.8 % Fib retrace
40 % down from it's high at 72

Commodities Gold, silver, Crude oil, Copper

GOLD

broke out now looking to challenge 1800 resistance level.

SILVER

Approaching down trend line, and 200 day MA at 35.03.
a break above could see sharp rally

CRUDE OIL


Above resistance at 104, after large consolidation.  Oil short term overbought, but with tensions rising with Iran, should not give much back and may well be on to much higher targets 129 (measured move). Initial target 111/115 before significant correction

COPPER


Copper may also have competed a correction from overbought levels.  Key level downside 365. If correction over should now be heading to 400, and beyond that the triangle target is still at 450 ish.

Gold weakness

Gold weaker today...WHY? Simply overbought so some profit taking...looking to buy it on weakness..especially if it gets to 1160 ish..

Target is still 1348 min..

Gold correction where to?

Looks like gold is enetring a correctove phase after the big run up, plus recent dollar strength also affecting negatively.  A mild correction would be to 1060 level, maybe even 1030 (horizontal support)...anything larger and may target the break out level between 990 and 976..

where is gold going?

Gold latest

L O N G hot summer... GOLD ready to break out???

Looks like GOLD is poised to "make a decision".. it has been in a triangle since FEB 09, today looks to be breaking out to the upside, watch the HIGHS, if it can clear those may be a good run.to the upside...

Trawling some charts..first GOLD

Gold long term still in uptrend...shorter term we had the break out above that descending trend line. Now the move needs to prove itself...normally but not always we will get a retest of the breakout..so possible 865 max 855 before a RELAUNCH... good news it it seems to have decoupled from the inverse relationship it had with the dollar..

RSI and MACD look to be turning over..

looking to buy on a fall to levels cited..or on renewed push past recent highs.

Possible reverse Head and shoulders DOW target 10040!

See chart...pull back to 8500 8450 level...BUY looking for 10040...stop 8125..risk 375 reward 1540...

LOOKS like shorter term trading the order of the day...for a while...Santa rally...
BUT on the daily looks like we need a close above 10500 for things to change to bullish longer term...

Look for commodities to confirm the und OIL GOLD etc etc...also a weaker dollar...if those are not there SUSPECT the rally!

Beware full Moon! November 13th...

Full moon Thursday 13th Nov...

full moon has known effects on behaviour of lots of animals (include humans in that category!)

Could be we get the panic day soon..the way the market is behaving today...(wednesday 12th) no mercy for "buyers", will they capitulate soon? And at what level....

7200-7600 DOW....best case 5600 worst case..

Gold and oil also being pulled lower..where will OIL be in 3 -5 years? Will Asia (China, India etc etc) stop wanting cars? Will we all be on electric cars? OIL will be a buy soon, however psychology is ruling the markets - be careful short term...

OR...

Will the full moon initiate full blown lunacy ? A HUGE rally from these levels? Who knows ? Trade what you see...

DAX "AFTER"

This is the "after" view ("before" is in previous post) Now what? Is this a correction of the recent rally ? OR will we head to new lows....difficult decisions...middle of the range....if short then stop would have to be above recent high, if long stop below the OCT lows...BIG range HIGH risk. PERSONALLY - MHO only !! I feel a test and possible break of October lows is on the cards...before we get the TRADEABLE rally (ie 3-4 months) and possibly 25-30 % up move...when will we get to the lows? over next 2 weeks...so whilst bearish for the short term will be looking at BUYS if we get the break of OCT lows. Other things I am looking at - GOLD a move to below 700 would have me put on buying boots again, and also as a LONG term play - OIL near 50 USD, I would start accumulating

GOLD

What's happened to gold? Looks like the classic case of "throwing the baby out with the bathwater" Look at the longer term chart..self explanatory. Key levels..650 if broken then expect test of longer term uptrend at 550.