Still playing the markets

TRUMP changes mind

"Trump had said previously he would not be satisfied with a partial deal to resolve his effort to change China’s trade, intellectual property and industrial policy practices, which he argues cost millions of U.S. jobs. On Friday he said he had decided that a phased approach was appropriate."

So it looks like the back and forth of "deal or no deal" will be an ongoing theme for months and possibly years to come.

The markets were euphoric about the "latest deal" though the details were not released until after the market close on Friday - 

So some scepticism to come for next week?

Charts :
easy money and trade optimism are pushing indices to new highs, bell-weather stock  AAPL, also reached a new high on Friday.

DOW daily
Friday left what could be a shooting star (www.investopedia.com)
Warning that uptrend may fail..

The key to this will be the price action on Monday.

Turnaround Monday?

Big turnaround on Monday 

Is that it for the downside?

signs of a rally - the market found support at the bottom of it's trading range.  And a 

Caveat: it did pierce support  so might be a warning sign.

Dow 2 hour chart

No break of down trend (yet)

Some positive divergence

Looks like 24750 could be touched and still be in down trend

A break above 24750 may be sign of bigger and longer rally - countertrend or nw bullish move

DOW daily chart

Clear hammer candlestick on the daily, which is a bullish reversal.  Clearly shows the previous support (look left) being pierced.

Hammer candlestick can be bullish but:

"𝙒𝙝𝙞𝙡𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙢𝙖𝙮 𝙨𝙚𝙚𝙢 𝙚𝙣𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝 𝙩𝙤 𝙖𝙘𝙩 𝙤𝙣, 𝙝𝙖𝙢𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙧𝙚 𝙛𝙪𝙧𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙗𝙪𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙨𝙝 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙡𝙤𝙬 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙖𝙢𝙢𝙚𝙧 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙬𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙥𝙡𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙮 𝙤𝙛 𝙨𝙚𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙞𝙣. 𝙁𝙪𝙧𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙗𝙪𝙮𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙛𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙮 𝙤𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙫𝙤𝙡𝙪𝙢𝙚, 𝙞𝙨 𝙣𝙚𝙚𝙙𝙚𝙙 𝙗𝙚𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜. 𝙎𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙖 𝙜𝙖𝙥 𝙪𝙥 𝙤𝙧 𝙡𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙞𝙩𝙚 𝙘𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙠"

So tomorrow should see follow through to the upside to confirm and volume should increase.

If this fails to happen, likelihood increases of sharp move down to previously mentioned levels 22k Dow.

"To subdue the enemy without fighting`is the supreme art of war." - Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu

G20 - weekend it's a CRAPSHOOT -a risky or uncertain matter.

full of news - will Trump and Xi agree to be friends?
(I put it in the vernacular form, as Trump speaks like this - and quite often in a very child-like form, which is probably why he appeals to half of the American people)


So  looking at the charts :
Dow Industrial  - (I'm not an expert in candlestick formations but do refer to a book I have dealing with Japanese Candlestick charting)
What can we see?

1.  In candlestick terms each of the highlighted moves has a long bullish candle, followed by a "spinning top" - a sign that buyers and sellers are evenly matched or indecisive.
2. Looking at the firs 2 highlighted patterns : these are called " Evening star" they usually occur at the top of a trend.
3.  This implies that the next big move will be down..HOWEVER as this weekend is a CRAPSHOOT - several scenarios can happen.

a.  A large gap and crap
b.  large gap up and continue
c.   large gap down and recover
d. large gap down and continue
e small range trade

"Do I feel lucky?' Well, do you, punk?" 


So...if you're feeling brave - take a position
If not flat is also a position - and there will be trades to do after the event.

AUDUSD

Stopped on initial position but re entered at higher level..the negative divergence looks better today ..a new recent high with RSI now turning down...plus on the 8hr chart below looks like we have a bearish reversal signal