AAPL parabolic

Apple - bellwether stock - widely owned by individuals and funds, huge index weighting - so all index-linked funds have to be heavily invested - everyone knows it's a "great" company ;)..so what next?
Below is the quarterly chart, with a parabolic rise laid over the top.  "Parabolic up moves are exciting to ride, but there is the almost certain danger that the rocket will run out of fuel, resulting in a rapid collapse of prices. Trying to pick the final top for this kind of move could be hazardous to one's health, but being aware of the potential danger can be useful in managing positions."

Below the AAPL chart is the weekly silver chart which shows a parabolic move in 2011 and the subsequent collapse.  I'm not saying that the top is in AAPL - but care is needed. 

Summer ended..

Click prices for links to prior posts

Copper now at 371 
DAX 7350
FTSE 5800
Gold 1740
Silver 33.6


Where now?
DAX weekly

DAX approaching strong overhead and downtrend resistance.  Could be we get a brief push above, before a correction sets in.  However unless the trend changes that will be all it is .. a correction.

FTSE weekly

Also approaching resistance

Needs to break and hold above 5810, for test of 5870/5890

Formidable resistance around 5900.

IF the market can break higher obvious target is 6000

DAX/FTSE spread chart

When there is an uptrend can see that DAX outperforms FTSE.

Reasons? 

1, FTSE is quite heavily weighted with defensive stocks

2, DAX has only 30 stocks compared to FTSE 100, and many are cyclical risk on stocks.

However sometimes the spread widens too much.  For a relatively risk free trade sell DAX buy FTSE at these levels, possibly 200points, before uptrend resumes

When a prolonged market down turn occurs the tables are turned with the FTSE outperforming the DAX, in which case a spread trade can be held for longer

GOLD and SILVER

A lot of bearish thoughts out there..so sentiment is pretty negative

Weekly charts for both show that the BULL side may prevail, though with the sentiment so negative it may be that we get a quick fall and even quicker reversal just to mess with the BEARS!

GOLD weekly

Action look similar to 2008 after it made a high then, ie corrective so a plus for the bulls.
The RSI is low
MACD looks like it wants to turn up.

SILVER weekly

The bearish argument rests on the large DESCENDING TRIANGLE, which a majority of time breaks down ie a bearish formation.

However it can also be viewed as a CONTINUATION pattern, ie the trend that was in place before the appearance of the triangle will re-assert itself..in this case UP.

This chart makes me think we will have a quick fall, and then the reversal higher.

Almost there?

After the short correction last week, equities have jumped to the upside, and breakouts have occurred in DAX, NDX, and the DOW to name a few.  Notable in it's non participation the FTSE has been a laggard..and may have already completed a TOP..

May need a couple of weeks of distribution...

DAX chart daily


Arrows show possible topping action over next couple of weeks..anything LARGER and may even challenge the all time highs..

AAPL shares have soared and the bullish HYPE is growing which in the end will result in tears for the latecomers to the party.  Momentum s still on the bulls side, but AAPL has gone parabolic and when it ends parabolic moves usually give back a lot of not all of the rise.  For example SILVER..

compare to AAPL now

As with Silver the "analysts" and media extrapolated the recent gains so there was talk of silver going much higher, how silver was indispensable (in industry, health; silver lined fridges, washing machines etc etc).  Compare that to now how Ipads will be needed by everyone.  Problem is no one can see an Ipad alternative..but IT'S OUT THERE !!!

and here's SILVER after the parabolic move topped.

JUST SAYING!!

Commodities Gold, silver, Crude oil, Copper

GOLD

broke out now looking to challenge 1800 resistance level.

SILVER

Approaching down trend line, and 200 day MA at 35.03.
a break above could see sharp rally

CRUDE OIL


Above resistance at 104, after large consolidation.  Oil short term overbought, but with tensions rising with Iran, should not give much back and may well be on to much higher targets 129 (measured move). Initial target 111/115 before significant correction

COPPER


Copper may also have competed a correction from overbought levels.  Key level downside 365. If correction over should now be heading to 400, and beyond that the triangle target is still at 450 ish.

Parabolic move AAPL similar to SILVER?

Well AAPL triggered a sell off yesterday rallying as high as 528 before selling off. It is in a parabolic move up, so looking at a chart of silver (which also had a parabolic move up in April 2011)

APPLE DAILY CHART

Now compare to SILVER daily

what happened next???

So the initial fall was 2 days, before it rallied to test the highs again and THEN collapsed.  Everybody was very bullish on silver at the time. (similar to AAPL now).

So probably worth watching to see how it reacts, it may be just a correction, as PARABOLIC moves can and do go much further than people think they will.  

Commodities

SILVER

Silver...seems to be at support..around 30 USD. could have a move up to 35, and ideally a move up to 38/40
where it may be a SHORT

COPPER

Copper also looks like finding support at around 325..
Move to 400? on the cards

CRUDE OIL
Slightly different chart...
Broke uptrend last week...now is that enough of a breather for a run to new highs?
Was overbought, recent sell off has reset indicators..
A break of 95 to downside changes bullish view

HI hol Silver

Looks like silver is in final stages of a blow off top...(MAYBE !)

 

But looking at the monthly chart history seems to say that there will be better opportunities to go long silver...(LONGS look higher risk now)

When it turns it will be painful....for longs.  Timing a top on a parabolic move up is also tricky..!! 

Some targets...

Some targets looking to cover shorts and maybe go long...depends on market action !  (If not going long will wait for a bounce to re/short)

DAX: looking for 5350 as a target chart here DAX chart

FTSE 4950, initial target...BUT a break below here will see 4650

 

Silver  looks to have broken the up trend line, and maybe the head and shoulders target at 14 is the one to look for. 
 

EURO   starting to look like nearing the end of a 1st wave down...looking for some capitulation 

Silver....

Silver chart above..looks like a short term topping formation with a test of the up trend line on the cards..target around 15.5...should coincide with:  A stronger dollar and B weakening commodities in general..possibly also another LEG down in equity markets...

Silver due a correction..if not more?

looks ike we tagged the upper line of the trend channel...good short , stop close by...at best head to lower trend channel line...OR maybe even further... A break above that uppe rline on good volume says get out of short!