Dow Industrials

still in the throes of a trade war dominated environment - but longer-term NEWS doesn't matter?

Still looks like an ED; In August, it broke the lower uptrend line; and then consolidated for the month, then breaking higher - HOWEVER the rally failed at 27500 (possible DOUBLE TOP?)

Now threatening to test the lower trend line of the ED (wedge).

If the ED has completed - expect a breakdown of the lower trend line - followed by a more prolonged bear move - (correction of 2016 brally  or even the 2008 rally) 

If it HASN'T completed; expect a bounce and a rally to new highs (throw-over), and THEN a rapid retrace of the ED and breakdown as above.

If this is just a consolidation, a sustained break above the top of the wedge (ED) and then more prolonged bull move (pushed by lower rates, China trade deal)

NASDAQ daily

So longer-term the charts look like a topping pattern is in progress -click here for NDX LONG term - previous post

Looking at the daily chart - looks like what could be called and ENDING DIAGONAL in progress.

More information here: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliottwave/elliott-wave-theory-ending-diagonal/

IDEALLY - a new high (overthrow of upper trend line) and then a sharp fall

DAILY closer up

can see the bounces off the lower rising trend line 

clear wedge forming

1 If it breaks down from here - there could be a sharp move down 

2 if it rallies - could test the upper trend line and break temporarily higher..

On the 2 hour chart - we can see we the level closer;  a break down below the trend line and likely quick fall and possibly a larger fall to finally correct the rally from 2008

DOW - ending diagonal?

Dow daily chart

The trading recently (a year) has been very volatile - one moment looks like sustained rally, the next looks like a sustained fall.  So looked through books and online charts.
could be we are forming an ending diagonal

So, the fall in December 2018 could have been the end of the larger 4th wave, and now we are in some "ending diagonal" full of 3 wave moves.  This doesn't look complete - which allows for a new high - which also ties in with the lower rates scenario and this in turn, will mean a shift in assets to "risk" - for the wrong reasons - so the latecomers to the 10 years plus bull market.