Almost there

OK so the down trend has been in force for almost 2 months now and are approaching targets

DOW LONG term chart (4th December)
Analysis of previous corrections - bear moves)
This shows the very long term and the up -trend

Look at the quarterly chart as of 21/1218

1.  this puts the recent fall into context i.e. could go much lower long term
2. other indicators such as RSI and MACD just turning down
3.  it has reached a very tentative support - have to zoom in for a closer look

DOW weekly from 16th November

and NOW:

1. It's reached the 32.8 % retrace (Fibonacci) of the 2016 rally (Trump)
2. could be near support

HOWEVER, it coincides with the Christmas holidays.

Bear moves tend to overshoot, with a panic blow off

61.8 % retrace (very common) would be around 20k (the blue dashed Fib level)

Zooming in to the daily charts

The daily is interesting

1. reached the 38.2 % retrace (black dashed line)
2. RSI starting to go oversold (not a sign to go long - can stay oversold in bear markets)
3. Volume picked up on the last move down (sign of capitulation)

Conclusion

Markets are reaching target levels (DOW 22300, DAX 10200) 

Some signs that the move down may be ending , volume, RSI and CNBC presenters starting to get nervous !

Things to be wary of:

Down moves can accelerate even though it may be ending soon, a panic move could take DOW to 22k, and DAX to 10k

Holiday trading can be thin and moves exaggerated (up and down)

There will always be opportunities!

STRATEGY

reduced shorts Friday

look to start flattening out

Looking ahead:

Once this down move finishes , expect a retrace of the down move:

1. could be a partial retrace (FIB levels) before the next move down (BEAR scenario)

2.  Could be start of the next bull move up to new highs 

Addendum:

FTSE has been holding relatively well as is the cable rate (1.26/1,27) - this could be related to Brexit.

If Brexit deal gets no vote and cable plunges, effectively a devaluation then FTSE may get a boost (exporters) REMEMBER Mexico devaluation in 1994 - initial fall - Then a huge rally in local currency terms -

Crude thoughts

So crude oil has been relentlessly sold over the last month and a half..

remember things can go down in a straight line but not forever..

So is it time for a BOUNCE?

Look at the evidence, comparing price action and RSI.

On the daily chart there is positive divergence showing now (remember not an exact science), but this does show that the recent selling may be abating.

So where will the bounce go to?
Well using Fibonacci retracements (more on Fibonacci in the natural world also known as the Golden Ratio click here) .  Was God a mathematician ?  (video link) we can get an idea of where it may bounce to.

So if we look at the daily chart of crude, what is the positive divergence?
1. price has made a new low
2. RSI in the lower panel has not
indicated by the blue trend lines.

Will the move up be sustainable?
Well the down move was strong so any move up will be corrective, in Elliott Wave terms , the move up will be 3 waves (A-B-C) .

Then if OIL is in a bear move (evidence? - world is slowly changing to alternatives, electric cars, wind power, solar power, this will gather pace so oil may lose it's  standing as an indicator for the world economy over the medium term)
The next leg down will be even larger than this one if it is a wave 3 down (Elliot Waves - impulses are 5 waves)

Minimum target would be the 23.8 % retrace level ; Oil however tends ot overshoot both on the downside and upside so 38.2 % retrace is a very valid target.