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Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

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Showing posts with label trading strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading strategy. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Another LONG term chart - headline index the Dow Jones Industrial index

The DJIA is a narrow index but it is the headline index - for the major news outlets.
The monthly chart shows negative divergence between Price and RSI
Since Jan 2018  the market has tried 3 times to break to new highs -
so this can be a consolidation (as in minor bear move, followed by new highs) or a topping formation (as in major bear market)

Who knows which it will be?
keep eye on levels 27650 and 24500 - short term.
breaking 24500 targets the December 2018 lows
breaking the highs could see a fast move higher

as always there are various scenarios - depends on your time frames, and style of trading





Jack be nimble....

Wow - some overnight moves - sometimes it pays to stay up a little longer when markets are like this.

So overnight it looks like there was a mini capitulation of sellers (see chart) - and a subsequent short-covering rally.

So now where?
The drop tagged the 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement level, and rallied 600  points - these markets are NOT for the faint-hearted- hence the title of the post -
1. this fall may mean more to come medium-term
2. snapback rallies can go further than one might think.

Strategy
keep an eye on key levels for buy/sell opportunities
if trading intraday - be vigilant - and manage risk
best strategy is to wait for key levels



Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Break out



DOW:  finally a break??




Yesterday's rally may have broken the wedge to the upside.

Now it needs follow through, a failure here would probably mean trading back into the wedge and testing the lows again.  Volatility still persists.

Gut feel:  still didn't seem to be enough pessimism for a bottom - we'll see.
Rallies like yesterday's can be self fulfilling as short covering increases.
The market was DUE a bounce - so expected.

At moment many markets are near resistance.
Good area to try a short - with a tight stop. for a short term trade

If it does follow through on volume, but the dips.
Initial targets:  25300, 25800  - on the upside.


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