another wdge

SAVED by central ..ankers

PARIS (Dow Jones)--There is a consensus amongst central bankers that there could be an economic recovery in 2010, Philippe Mastadt, president of the European Investment Bank and chairman of its board of directors.

Mastadt also said commercial banks are still having difficulties and problems remain with toxic assets in some European countries.

These are the same ..ankers who CLEARLY saw the problems we are now experiencing...

bear market rallies

reading through my BIBLE of technical analysis ( Technical Analysis of Stock Trends - Edwards and Magee)...

"Rising wedge typifies a situation which is growing progressively weaker in the technical sense"

"Once prices break out of a wedge downside, they USUALLY waste little time in retracing ALL of the ground gained within the wedge itself and sometimes more."

"Rising wedges are common in bear market rallies"

So yesterday we had the "break" of the wedge formation...the rally started well but since 23rd March the move up has been overlapping....look at previous bear flags/wedges..

SO looks like we retrace a good portion of the rally from march 9th lows IF NOT ALL and maybe more...

Banking index bear or bull......???

Bearish wedge forming...

or bullish head and shoulders...

either way looks like retest at 30 level (approx 10 % fall)...

IBM breaking down?

usd jpy

self explanatory..

weakness in dollar vs yen has signalled weakness in equity mkts in the past year..co this could be the long awaited correction of the 26% rally in equities since March

looks like bearish wedge broken to downside (within what may be a larger bearish flag)
1st target 96.7/97,

quick tips

Medicines...

We have tried to avoid using antibiotics over the last few years...and one of the best things we have found for prevention of colds is H2O2 (hydrogen peroxide)

We use 1 3% solution in the ears when we "feel" a cold coming on...

Also we gargle with it 3 times a day when we get that "tickly sore throat OH no I´m coming down with a cold sensation" !!!

here´s a good link for all the uses of H2O2..the ones the BIG pharma companies don´t want you to use!!

http://www.h2o2-4u.com/house.html

Also Apple cider vinegar has also helped warts, sinus infections, etc etc..google it for uses!!

step back and look from a distance

Just trawling charts...sometimes when the shorter term action is unclear it´s best to step back and look at longer term, ie weekly and monthly charts.. a bit like looking at a painting too closely, step back and it becomes clearer

NDX which has been strong in recent rally...

broken above horizontal resistance at 1234 and now testing next level at 1305..

weekly chart shows 3 waves down, (not an Elliott wave expert) but this shows we could be in wave 4 rally (at least in NDX) which should give choppy trading for a while..ie short term stuff...

EURO POUND

BIG TRIANGLE forming...

gut feeling is we break down, ie pound will get stronger... EUROPE perceived to be stronger than UK, but in reality I think they are behind ie the worst is still to come..UK most know that the situation is BAD!! And psychologically a lot of talk still about parity...


PLUS: Pound has been showing strength against the dollar...

still not there..

DOW despite the news STILL has not broken through the down channel...today COULD be the day...with the JOBS REPORT out...

charts S&P, DOW...

heavy resistance in S&P 850 -870 level...

S&P crossroads..

Here's how it looks to me:

The recent fall has broken the current up trend from the lows..

so PRIMARY TREND DOWN comes back into play..

1. yellow lines..one more push up to test the trendline 850 max, then a fall to 720 level..form a HIGHER LOW, and then attack recent highs again..

HOWEVER...

a break back below descending trend line 3 ..resumption of down trend and NEW lows possible..

2.we rally up through here and break 870 level..(major resistance).. then in for a longer up move but working through the CONGESTION LEVEL..up to 940.. CHOPPY.. above 940 then 1020


At the moment seems like a lot of people are going for a rally from here (ie from near 770 level) gut feel markets do the unexpected!!

Looking at this...DOW and IBM

BIG rally off the lows.. 22%

NOW what...??

Still in down trend channel despite rally...

Overbought so some pullback ....or will it be resumption of down trend.??

Watch KEY levels...

Q1 END tomorrow...!!....

IBM.... tried to rally back into channel, broke down Friday..maybe a rest before further strength, watch 92 again...

FTSE CHART

Looks like critical junction ...

Red descending trendline should give some resistance..BUT a break through here gets us back into that congestion zone.. upper boundary 4330

then strong resistance at 4685..

A break below the current up trend we may see test of lows..higher low?

Note stochs are overbought....but can remain so if we get more up trend..wait for break either way...

EUR GBP..not yet parity?

With the £ strengthening against the dollar and Euro, MAYBE looking at the monthly chart of Euro pound..we may still see a move back to 1.18/1.20, also £ looks like it has broken out of downtrend against dollar...


Monthly charts still show pound oversold..against both..

good summary of last weeks news!

http://thehousingtimebomb.blogspot.com/

More charts...DOW and DAX

Dow ..after yesterdays moves at crucial point...DOW closer to break out, though yesterdays rally smacked of large short covering. today may see more of the same..but a pull back is imminent...so no chasing it...HOWEVER if we get a pullback and a rally through that trendline 8350 to 8500 looks likely..

At the moment looks like a pull back should be bought...1000 points straight up... 1/3 back down?


DAX

Not so strong...needs to clear 4300 for a chance at4700-4800. Entering resistance zone now and trendline resistance at 4250 ish..

Gold...

Gold taking a tumble so the scenario in the above chart may be about to play out...short term target 846 or thereabouts mid term target if we break 886 ...774

things

everything interlinked...

Crude rallied with equity markets ---or EVEN ahead of them...a leading indicator?? Now at resistance 50 bucks...psychological level?


Euro ..key level on downside still 1.24...recent rally head butting resistance at 1.3070.. if we start down from here may be the right shoulder of LARGE H&S..

Dollar ...due a bounce?

Equities

Finally maybe too may people looking for the pull-back/resumption down trend...so the rally may go further than most predictions...BUT it will come..just at what level!!

IBM again...

Another look at IBM..should be key for the general market as it has huge weighting in DOW (banks are now mostly INSIGNIFICANT).

We had a break below the trend channel (looks more like a BEAR flag) which if it is the case does not bode well for overall market. Flags fly at half mast..so a crude price projection would be 37!!! Watch 82 level if it breaks we should get a quick move to 70's


Obviously if we hold at 82 and rally then look for resistance at trend channel...

DOW

Looks like we are in the final move down..clear 5 waves (major)...wave 5 looks like we need a wave up and one more down to finish...

When this snaps back will be like a rubber band..imagine ALL those shorts laid out in the last 1000 points all trying to cover...!

Remember JP always gets in last on the move....

IBM and other stuff

IBM as at time of writing has broken the 87 level..bottom of the wedge (see previous post) and also AAPL below 89, however better to see the closes. Seems like the market is getting pretty oversold so a short covering rally would not surprise to relieve oversold conditions.

DOW weekly chart...not an elliott wave expert BUT looks like we are in a wave 5...whether this is wave 5 of 3 or a wave 5 we won't know till after the fact. If it is the former, then we still have a wave 4, then a wave 5; if the latter, we should have a decent rally upwards ABC...

Either way looks like the target is around 6500 /6700 for a temporary low for this move.
http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/2009/01/dow-possible-path-for-move-down.html

(see prior post)

Heavyweight..

with markets still in indecision mode...looking at IBM to see if any clues as to next move.

Looks like it has been tracing out a flag formation..lower boundary around 87...

a clear break below there would be trouble for the broader market...

obviously a clear break above 99..would be bullish...

we got to the top of the wedge a week ago and immediately fell..gap open may need to fill before moving lower

FTSE chart

pretty self explanatory..and similar to most other major indices. Still in a continuation formation ( assume bearish formation until proven otherwise). Looks like it may need to test the downward sloping trend line before decision time!

Meanwhile be nimble if trading range!

EURO GBP ....for DAVID L!!

Click on charts to see larger picture

LONG term MONTHLY CHART...Looks like euro could fall against pound..needs to get through .855 first before next support at.8171.

MEDIUM term WEEKLY CHART...also looks like EURO should fall against pound..however close to .855 level..so some support could come in..

SHORTER term looks like Euro has found some support between .855 and .8700 so shorter term we may see some more euro strength before a more sustained down move begins...

VERY SHORT TERM 2 hour CHART

If we see a break above the down trend line should indicate start of euro strength...will probably also be result of general strength against $ and JPY....

PS notice how instruments move in waves.....in all time frames...

euro jpy another look

Thought that euro jpy had broken down trend but when i looked at the longer term..(weekly) it seems not...we are close...but not yet there..so indecision abounds! DOW also has not broken above down trend yet...above 8170 ..maybe but until then....

more watching and waiting

Euro vs Pound

Are interest rate expectations changing for UK vs EUROZONE? Looks like the weakness in pound vs EURO may be over temporarily. We had the parabolic rise to parity...now correcting..funny how the "TOP" was signalled by the "news channels" !! Maybe we get back to 1.23€ to the pound before reversing... maybe..

euro jpy

Green line is DOW, other is EUR/JPY...you can see close correlation, and money markets being much larger than equity makes me believe that the movement of EUR/JPY leads the equity mkt. KEY support at 113.71.. abreak below there WATCH OUT BELOW on other hand...a break above that descending trendline may set us up for a larger rally in equities...(in EUR/JPY back to 130 level) ..so stil waiting for the decisive move....

DOW 2 hour

2 hour time frame is one I like to look at for a few days trade...

bit early yet but if it stays looking like this and closes lower could be bearish...

see how it closes!

note to self: remember BEAR market rallies are vicious and short in time...

Currencies

marking time...dollar to have one more rally? That would tie in with one more down leg in equities..

Most majors seem to be in the "bottoming process" but doesn't look quite there yet..

Trawling some charts..first GOLD

Gold long term still in uptrend...shorter term we had the break out above that descending trend line. Now the move needs to prove itself...normally but not always we will get a retest of the breakout..so possible 865 max 855 before a RELAUNCH... good news it it seems to have decoupled from the inverse relationship it had with the dollar..

RSI and MACD look to be turning over..

looking to buy on a fall to levels cited..or on renewed push past recent highs.

Ski pics...

Some ski pics while I get back in the swing of things...looks like no great decisive moves anywhere..YET. Gut feeling still that we will have a test/break of November lows...but time frame still unclear...but so far the rallies have been UNCONVINCING...

will be looking at a few charts this week...