DOW

Looks like we are in the final move down..clear 5 waves (major)...wave 5 looks like we need a wave up and one more down to finish...

When this snaps back will be like a rubber band..imagine ALL those shorts laid out in the last 1000 points all trying to cover...!

Remember JP always gets in last on the move....

IBM and other stuff

IBM as at time of writing has broken the 87 level..bottom of the wedge (see previous post) and also AAPL below 89, however better to see the closes. Seems like the market is getting pretty oversold so a short covering rally would not surprise to relieve oversold conditions.

DOW weekly chart...not an elliott wave expert BUT looks like we are in a wave 5...whether this is wave 5 of 3 or a wave 5 we won't know till after the fact. If it is the former, then we still have a wave 4, then a wave 5; if the latter, we should have a decent rally upwards ABC...

Either way looks like the target is around 6500 /6700 for a temporary low for this move.
http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/2009/01/dow-possible-path-for-move-down.html

(see prior post)

Heavyweight..

with markets still in indecision mode...looking at IBM to see if any clues as to next move.

Looks like it has been tracing out a flag formation..lower boundary around 87...

a clear break below there would be trouble for the broader market...

obviously a clear break above 99..would be bullish...

we got to the top of the wedge a week ago and immediately fell..gap open may need to fill before moving lower

FTSE chart

pretty self explanatory..and similar to most other major indices. Still in a continuation formation ( assume bearish formation until proven otherwise). Looks like it may need to test the downward sloping trend line before decision time!

Meanwhile be nimble if trading range!

EURO GBP ....for DAVID L!!

Click on charts to see larger picture

LONG term MONTHLY CHART...Looks like euro could fall against pound..needs to get through .855 first before next support at.8171.

MEDIUM term WEEKLY CHART...also looks like EURO should fall against pound..however close to .855 level..so some support could come in..

SHORTER term looks like Euro has found some support between .855 and .8700 so shorter term we may see some more euro strength before a more sustained down move begins...

VERY SHORT TERM 2 hour CHART

If we see a break above the down trend line should indicate start of euro strength...will probably also be result of general strength against $ and JPY....

PS notice how instruments move in waves.....in all time frames...

euro jpy another look

Thought that euro jpy had broken down trend but when i looked at the longer term..(weekly) it seems not...we are close...but not yet there..so indecision abounds! DOW also has not broken above down trend yet...above 8170 ..maybe but until then....

more watching and waiting

Euro vs Pound

Are interest rate expectations changing for UK vs EUROZONE? Looks like the weakness in pound vs EURO may be over temporarily. We had the parabolic rise to parity...now correcting..funny how the "TOP" was signalled by the "news channels" !! Maybe we get back to 1.23€ to the pound before reversing... maybe..

euro jpy

Green line is DOW, other is EUR/JPY...you can see close correlation, and money markets being much larger than equity makes me believe that the movement of EUR/JPY leads the equity mkt. KEY support at 113.71.. abreak below there WATCH OUT BELOW on other hand...a break above that descending trendline may set us up for a larger rally in equities...(in EUR/JPY back to 130 level) ..so stil waiting for the decisive move....

DOW 2 hour

2 hour time frame is one I like to look at for a few days trade...

bit early yet but if it stays looking like this and closes lower could be bearish...

see how it closes!

note to self: remember BEAR market rallies are vicious and short in time...

Currencies

marking time...dollar to have one more rally? That would tie in with one more down leg in equities..

Most majors seem to be in the "bottoming process" but doesn't look quite there yet..

Trawling some charts..first GOLD

Gold long term still in uptrend...shorter term we had the break out above that descending trend line. Now the move needs to prove itself...normally but not always we will get a retest of the breakout..so possible 865 max 855 before a RELAUNCH... good news it it seems to have decoupled from the inverse relationship it had with the dollar..

RSI and MACD look to be turning over..

looking to buy on a fall to levels cited..or on renewed push past recent highs.

Ski pics...

Some ski pics while I get back in the swing of things...looks like no great decisive moves anywhere..YET. Gut feeling still that we will have a test/break of November lows...but time frame still unclear...but so far the rallies have been UNCONVINCING...

will be looking at a few charts this week...

USD JPY target

Just a reminder of a USD/JPY chart I posted on Dec 3rd

Yesterday's late rally..and other things

Just remembered the chart of USD/JPY..we are at 87.91...
the target from the flag is 85...keep eye on this as may be a turning point...

USD weakness vs JPY has been positively correlated..ie weak USD weak market !!

Will be in France next week skiing..Samoens..

back Feb 1st!

Euro USD chart

Quick look at the EURO vs $...

Looks like at critical junction...

We had the break out at 1.3058 in DEC, now retesting that level..will it hold? Also descending trendline..a break above that should bring us a new rally leg... Trading below 1.30 wil lbring us back into the range we had November to December

If we get a test of 1.3058 and hold ..I will go long there, and also on a good break of the dotted trendline.

A rally in euro would also tie in with a rally in equities...targeting the underside of the wedges (9600 DOW, 4400 FTSE, 4900 DAX).

gardening...

It's the season for planting! About 400 onions, broad beans, caulis, broccoli, mange tout, cabbages already in the ground...

garlic, butter nut squash to go in next week...

sore back..now I know why the old guys from Alhaurin walk around slowly and hunched!

US holiday on Monday...so more work in the garden..

chicken coop is on the list this year....!

Crude oil longer term

Copy and paste link below for interesting thoughts on crude

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=994375164

Another fall to a new low might be needed to end this dramatic move down...while oil is falling can't see any rally in equities..

Short term play to upside if this happens..key level to watch 30 usd; significantly below that 17 usd...

DOW possible path for the move down?

chart shows possible down move action. remember NOTHING goes down in a straight line!! Ideally with wedges should get a retest of the bottom of the wedge..which would be a GREAT short opportunity...(the stop would be as shown...so RR would be good). If nimble a long position once this 1st wave down has finished...or hedge shorts...

keep eye on Euro weakness (weak euro = weak equities - at least for last 6 months!) Also Crude oil no rally here yet ...are we going to test 18???? If so does not bode well for equities...

will look at crude long term chart next post

More DAX

shorter time frame chart...

self explanatory (more or less)..anyway ties in with 3500 target mentioned in previous post.

posted on trade2win.com
Looks like we have broken wedge pattern so theoretical downside target 3510..obviously NOT in a straight line...so if not already short I personally would wait for next rally, unless you can play the momentum (more risky) and short it here (maybe drill down to smaller time frame and see resistance support levels for stops and intermediate targets. Quite often we get a retest of the wedge...but that would be a longer term move..

DAX

self explanatory chart...

if we are in next move down the target should be Nov lows first, and then 3500 which is a 78.6 % retrace of move up from 2003..:)

If so strategy is to sell any strong rallies...LONG positions ONLY for the nimble!!

New Year !!.....same old market...

2009 has arrived and the markets are still in the same old patterns...today we may be on verge of a breakdown...if so how far will we go???

DOW chart: looks like a break down through the wedge will see 8350 first, then a test of the Nov lows at 7450....a significant break through here (3% plus) means we could get as low as 5900 see WEEKLY chart.

OR we get a FALSE BREAK of November lows, followed by a longer term INTERMEDIATE rally

anyway JURY still OUT

4th Quarter earnings season starts this week..MAY give some clue to the direction we will take.

ALSO : OIL, EURO have been weak (and in the past year have been positively correlated with the equity markets).