EURUSD top? AAPL bottom?

Euro has rallied off the 1,30 level quickly.

Is this it?

I don't think so..
1.33 was tested 3 times and pushed the rally back..NOW we are above that level, so we should now have support at 1.33 or close by.

How far can it go?

On the daily looks like 1.35 is reasonable short term target before a pullback

EURUSD daily

EURUSD weekly

On the weekly there is one rally followed by corrective action (Bull flag) no broken out and target could be as high as 1.40

AAPL daily chart

Still showing signs of positive divergence with price and RSI

Right angle triangle 

500 support (psychological level)

May get broken just because so many are watching that level.. a break may clear out the last weak hands and then rally, or it may start a new leg down..BUT it seems the NEGATIVE NEWS may already be priced in with the fall from 700.

click on links to see the stories

Sentiment wise everyone is negative, and yesterday front page of Market watch was FULL of bearish stories on AAPL, from cutting production to new competition from Linux based phones.  One positive story stating AAPL is cheap at 500 USD

Still not convinced,,new highs coming

The markets closed yesterday at 5 year highs..

and scepticism  in the rally and equities is still rife.

"The lackluster performance on Wall Street comes as traders express some uncertainty about the outlook for the markets after recent gains lifted the S&P 500 to a five-year closing high."  article can be found here *RTT news)

Top pickers still around

From Bloomberg TV



From Marketwatch headlines on Front Page

FTSE update

FTSE at 6100 !

Now what?

Will resistance hold?  If so then we may get a deeper correction before another challenge at higher levels.

If we clear 6120 decisively, we may then retrace to 6100 before heading higher.

Depends also on other world markets.

Part I second week 2013

After a strong (short) first week, week 2 finds markets consolidating and despite the strong rally last week, so far have not given back much.  

All markets are consolidating

AAPL drags on NDX (but did rally 10 % last week)

FTSE broke to new highs on Friday.

DAX continues consolidation.

Dollar rallied hard on FOMC minutes but this week giving back some of gains : ready for a FALL?

obviously EURO and POUND vs dollar fell after reaching obvious resistance at 1.33 and 1.63 respectively, now is the fall a correction and ready to go higher?

YEN remains weak

CHARTS

FTSE daily

Can see a break above descending trendline @ 5904/5910  then a classic pull back to retest that level, and then rallied towards the next resistance at 6100/6120

So we should have solid support at 5900, and resistance at 6100. Shorter tern 6000 looks like psychological support,

BUY support and sell resistance, BE WARY of sustained break above 6120 market will then be in position to attack the highs (minor resistance at 6500) 

Also a decline below 5900 may call into question new high scenario

DAX daily

DAX has had a large rally off the November 2011 low.  Despite being overbought has not retraced mush, so could be in a sideways consolidation.  Another push up to around 8,000 possible before larger retrace.

EURO daily

Euro attacked 1.33 resistance level, but was overbought.  The fall to 1.30 has reset the O/B conditions quickly.

A fall below 1.2950 signals deeper correction

Sentiment seems bearish with talk of Double and Triple top at 1.33

expecting another go at 1.33 which succeeds and euro rallies to test 1,35 on way to 1.40

When the press say this...

and everyone is thinking the same..probability is that it WILL go farther!

2013 quick look

Quick look at the first day of trading.

FC resolved (Fiscal Cliff)

Underlying trend has been and will continue to be up; liquidity picture has not changed and Japan wants dollar yen to 90 will add more liquidity to global financial system.  Retail investors have shunned equities for a few years now.  US markets have been under-performing Europe recently, so expecting catch up, especially in the TECH sector which has been hard hit buy AAPL.

Pluses for continued upside:
Global liquidity
Transports breaking higher
European indices breaking higher
China



FTSE

December post shows FTSE breaking out, here

Looks like this will continue and head towards 6100 where stiff resistance so expecting a retrace near there. Possible short term short scalps..but safer play will be buy the dip.

DAX

 daily similar to FTSE heading to 8,000

Weekly chart shows levels more clearly

some FX

EURUSD  previous post here
Still on track for higher levels..
best guess is break 1,33 to go to 1,34..then a pull back before heading higher.

Cable  GBPUSD

Declining resistance near 1.64
1.63 also resistance
breaking 1.63 targets 1.68
extreme upside target (unlikely) 1.72

FTSE breaking out !

FTSE daily

Breaking above declining resistance
next key level if we stay up 6100
a break above there can open up test of highs at 6800 ..see weekly chart below

FTSE weekly

expect some pause at around 6100 level
may even be a SHORT level..but BEWARE a push through 6100 especially if strong.

EURUSD on track for target

EURUSD

Looks to be on track for target
maybe as early as 1st week of Jan..if it can break above 1.32 soon

APPLE

AAPL

Daily chart, seems to be setting up POSITIVE divergence (price makes new low, but RSI does not).

Sentiment: seems nobody likes AAPL at 500 !! Yet at 700 EVERYONE wants to BUY.

Some sayings which could be applied to AAPL now.

BUY in the red , SELL in the blue, ie Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.

Warren Buffet " Be fearful when others are greedy, Be GREEDY when others are fearful"

Buy or sell? DAX, FTSE. DOW, NDX

Follow up on previous post  with FTSE DOW and NDX thrown in for good measure
Long? tighten stops
Short? stops are close by, and be ready to reverse on confirmed break higher...

Markets are poised for a break out higher..but will it be after another shake out??
Where's the crystal ball?

Monthly charts for LONG term investors

DAX

OK ! We may be about to break resistance and head to the highs around 8,000 BUT each time we have entered the highlighted area there has been a severe setback for the DOW.  Will history repeat itself ? (or at least rhyme?)

FTSE

Also approaching a resistance band may be quite tough getting through. If it does, then can probability increases for a min test of the highs at 7,000

DOW

Clear up trend.   A break above recent highs should see test of all time high at 14k.  

NDX

Monthly shows clear up trend with recent weakness testing support and rallying.  a rally should go to new highs above 3,000.
Very dependent on AAPL

AAPL DAILY chart


Oversold rally from around 505 level.  Another sell off almost testing the lows.  watch for
either a new low and rally, with RSI diverging (ie no new low in RSI)
or a move from here above 558 for signs that bottom is in.

Groundhog Day !! DAX

From  October 17th post..

"bumping against resistance, 7440.7480 key levels.  A break above that opens way for much higher prices."

Well here we are again...

"Possible that we rally and fail at 7500, that would make for a more bearish case, but we would need to see a break below key levels below 7170.

Likelihood is a rally to test 7500 and then a retrace; BUY the dip (If nimble enough trade the short side but beware of sustained move higher)"

We moved a lot lower than expected touching 6950, so the market is shaking out longs and shorts, and has effectively stayed in a range with extremes 7470 and 6950.

NOW we are near 7500 again.  Will THIS time be different?

European markets are near highs

US markets are still between 4.5 and 7 % off highs.

EURO has been strong

Precious metals weak

DAX

Either

1. broken out of bull flag, in which case a "test" of the red line is probable before heading higher.  The higher we go without a correction, the probability increase that we see a correction of at least 3 %, before heading higher.

OR

2. The DAX is forming a right angle broadening TOP 

from Edwards and Magee " Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"
"..Right Angled Broadening formations carry bearish implications, regardless of which side is horizontal.."
".. A horizontal side indicates either accumulation or distribution at a fixed price, depending of course on which side is horizontal. And it follows, logically, that any decisive break through the horizontal side has immediate forceful significance. Thus if a Broadening price pattern with a flat top boundary develops after a good advance, and if prices finally burst through that top line on high volume and close above it to a conclusive extent (roughly 3%), then it is safe to assume that the preceding uptrend will be resumed and carried on for a worthwhile move.  This does happen, although it is rare.  The odds favour the opposite; i.e., the eventual victory of the forces of distribution which created the horizontal top and a break away into an extensive decline"

So a break above 7500 MUST 
be on HIGH volume
preferably a decisive close above that (suggested 3%)

DAX still consolidating

The DAX despite the BEARISH sentiment for the last 6 weeks, has only fallen at most 4% from the recent high, and actually has NOT broken support, effectively rangebound between 7140 and 7460.

Looking at the RSI and MACD the break out over DAILY resistance resulted in the market being overbought.  Recent action has relieved those conditions and with quite high bearish retail sentiment, we could see a run to new highs if the market moves higher and breaks out over 7460.

Fly in the bullish ointment : US elections next week
Obviously a break below 7140 increases chances that recent action is a TOPPING pattern

DAX daily

Markets at crucial levels

DAX

bumping against resistance, 7440.7480 key levels.  A break above that opens way for much higher prices.
Pluses for the rally scenario
1. For the last 3.5 weeks the market has been consolidating the gains since breaking through key resistance at 7170, no real selling BUT the sentiment at these levels turned decidedly bearish, with many looking for a top.
2. The market is not overbought
3. Daily indicators in process of turning up

Possible that we rally and fail at 7500, that would make for a more bearish case, but we would need to see a break below key levels below 7170.

Likelihood is a rally to test 7500 and then a retrace; BUY the dip (If nimble enough trade the short side but beware of sustained move higher)

FTSE

similar to DAX

First chart shows declining trend line resistance 2007, 2011, 2012 tops

second chart shows daily closer up.

EURUSD

on the weekly chart we may have completed a bull flag, in which case measured target is around 1.40 !

AAPL

major market mover, may have bottomed at 623.  If not possible test lower at 600 or at the 200 dma currently 580

You think your commute is BAD?!!

AAPL

Apple daily chart

Is everybody getting bearish on AAPL?

The chart shows we HAD negative divergence on the new high, but recent price action seems to have alleviated overbought conditions. Support @ 650 which was the previous resistance.  Maybe a head and shoulders? But volume profile doesn't look right for an H&S.

DAX various time frames

The DAX is at RESISTANCE and many BEARS are emerging, but until certain levels get broken it is still in a BULL trend and targeting much higher levels.
Supportive of this is stronger Euro, strong US markets and Central Banks across the globe willing to provide liquidity.
There seems to be a lot of scepticism to this rally so 

DAX monthly

 No change from prior post.  Hit trendline resistance and pulled back. RSI not overbought. Maybe a bit more consolidation to be done, but better to look at smaller time frames for more clues.

DAX weekly

RSI entered overbought and is now pulling back, but so far no dramatic move to downside bodes well for bulls.  A break back below 7105 would be medium term bearish.  Until then probability is market will move higher.

DAX daily

Shows clearly defined trend channel, at present sitting on short term support but GREY area is strong support 7160. Possible to have a "scary" drop to that level, but BULL case would remain intact.

DAX 3 hours

Shows the up trend channel, with what  could be a BULL flag tracing out with current action.  Also shows an earlier bull flag. 

DAX 30 mins (for shorter term trades)

Here the uptrend support line can be seen.  Also it has attempted to break down at least 3 times, so short term if it breaks may get move lower to 7200/.7180 level.  Be aware.  However the formation could also be an ascending triangle which if broken to the upside around 7380 would give a measured target of 7540

EURUSD long term chart

Monthly chart

So far the rally off the recent low doesn't "look" complete.  Not to say we don't have a couple of red candles, nothing goes up in a straight line, BUT the declining trend line resistance seems a reasonable HIGH target, (1.40) or lower target 1.34

Short term overbought, Long term still UP

The charts below are pretty self explanatory.
Short term DAX has gapped up, and has a tendency to fill the gaps.  So a fall to around 7300 may be on the cards, HOWEVER if the market stays above here, and works off the overbought condition, then it may launch higher, attacking resistance at 7450/7500.  

Range 7266 -7470 for a few days.

BUY the dips! 
The Weekly and Monthly charts show the declining resistance.

IF we get a sustained break out, DAX could see as high as the ALL TIME HIGHS @ 8100 (10 % higher from current levels)

DAX 2 hr chart

 DAX daily

DAX weekly

DAX monthly

Spanish housing market.

As an aside from following markets.

Spain's housing market is dis-jointed and haphazard.

Sign up and get the Central Government to act NOW!

Click on link below:

Petition for a transparent process for buying and selling in Spain.


The Central Government, Regional and local governments have turned a blind eye for 20-30 years while the "going was good" allowing people to buy homes that were not properly registered, with collusion of lawyers and notaries, BECAUSE they were all making MONEY, through taxes and commissions.

NOW that it has all gone pear shaped they want to penalise those homeowners who bout property in good faith by imposing fines, and even demolishing their homes.

WHO should really be paying for this??  Lawyers, corrupt politicians and corrupt local governments.

Summer ended..

Click prices for links to prior posts

Copper now at 371 
DAX 7350
FTSE 5800
Gold 1740
Silver 33.6


Where now?
DAX weekly

DAX approaching strong overhead and downtrend resistance.  Could be we get a brief push above, before a correction sets in.  However unless the trend changes that will be all it is .. a correction.

FTSE weekly

Also approaching resistance

Needs to break and hold above 5810, for test of 5870/5890

Formidable resistance around 5900.

IF the market can break higher obvious target is 6000

DAX/FTSE spread chart

When there is an uptrend can see that DAX outperforms FTSE.

Reasons? 

1, FTSE is quite heavily weighted with defensive stocks

2, DAX has only 30 stocks compared to FTSE 100, and many are cyclical risk on stocks.

However sometimes the spread widens too much.  For a relatively risk free trade sell DAX buy FTSE at these levels, possibly 200points, before uptrend resumes

When a prolonged market down turn occurs the tables are turned with the FTSE outperforming the DAX, in which case a spread trade can be held for longer