DAX BIG head and shoulders still possible

Here's the chart from March 2010

and here is the one as of today...we are still in that large formation

A break through that red dashed line and all hell breaks loose , until then looks like we are still in that range 5600-6300 approx

BP

Will BP go bust?

Looking at the daily weekly and monthly charts..only the daily is showing some signs of a bottom (some positive divergence). Would be good to see it on the weekly and  monthly as well..one to keep an eye on.  Doubt it will go bust too many vested interests.. (40% of it's shareholders are based in the US, BP probably a large part of most pension funds, UK government will miss it's revenues...just a few)

DAX 3 hrs

Everybody starting to get bearish...am looking at 5500/5400 for support and possible LONG entry (if we get there)..alternatively selling 5750 may be the other trade to look for.  Looks like we are in a wave 5 down..so once finished could get a decent upward correction, or if really bullish a push to new highs..

DAX head n shoulders?

Looks like a H&S playing out..we have broken the neckline, now need some follow through target 5700..the daily chart shows a possible bullish scenario...

Gold weakness

Gold weaker today...WHY? Simply overbought so some profit taking...looking to buy it on weakness..especially if it gets to 1160 ish..

Target is still 1348 min..

AUDUSD longer term nearing support at 8570

A break below 8570 and targets will be the 200 dma and 100 dma around 8300

EURO L O N G T E R M

Monthly chart of EURO  are we heading for 1.14?  Which also coincides roughly with 61.8 % retracement of the rally from November 2000...


Then it may be the turn of the US dollar to collapse....

DAX 30 mins

Short term look at DAX..expecting volatile few days or even couple of weeks after Thursday's rout in US indices.  Circles show areas of congestion..price at moment looks like breaking out but needs to be confirmed.

reflective time...

An aside from the markets..

Now we are coming up to summer ..(at least in S Spain) and the clouds are clearing ..thank God !!...we are finally getting to the task of clearing the land..and need to get the vegetables in the ground..

With the weird weather across Europe and especially down here..it seems that we are in store for higher food prices..some early vegetables have been wiped out by waterlogged conditions and only now is it possible to plant.  the problem being that the plantlets will not have the "good" i.e. not too hot temperatures for very long so roots will be less developed.  The "heat" will arrive soon, which means a lot of plants  will not have developed bug enough root systems to carry them through the summer, and once it heats up here the top 3 inches or so turn to rock!!



If you are interested in a Southern Spanish holiday home click here .

Euro daily basing or consolidating?

Couple of possible scenarios.  For now looks like we will get a choppy rally up in  wave iv  before a wave v down..

IF the move down has finished we should see some good mini rallies to signal a change in trend

DAX daily

Whilst bullish sentiment is still rising..with the markets..the DAX seems to be lagging..

 We COULD be in the final move of an abc correction which when finished will herald a large move down..
The DAX has lagged other major indices, when usually it is LEADING the indices higher...

OF course all can change, but MAY be a WARNING against the decidedly bullish sentiment prevailing.

DAX..

4 hr chart of DAX

Why figures are meaningless!

 

Jobs figures are meaningless! As is most data from the govt or associated "independent" bodies. 

The figures today came out "better than expected"...BUT the fine print tells us that last month the data was WORSE than originally reported!

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." ..M Twain

DOW bull back..or pull back?

Looking at the rally from March 09 we can see 3 drives up.. a break of the up trend and now in a rally question is "Is this part of the correction of March 09 rally?"  OR  "is this the start of another leg up?"

BEAR CASE..
 

1.  We have 3 drives up, so would expect a "correction" at least
2. Current correction has not even retraced 23.6 % of the rally..normally would expect to at elast 38.2 % or 50 %.
3. Could be we have made an A  down, B up (currently), and next will be C down similar scenario to post here Dow Transport..clues


BULL CASE

1. retrace has been small so far..indicates "lack of selling"
2.  Close to making new highs for the current rally
3. Could be we have ALREADY made A B C correction...

EITHER way we should see resolution soon..maybe Friday NFP day (non farm payrolls)..

Dax  is still lagging FTSE and DOW

EURGBP

Well this went further than I thought..BUT like the AUDUSD chart from 23/02/10 AUDUSD  the negative divergence set up is looking better with a new high and RSI flat.  And the STOP for a short is close by so RISK/REWARD  looks good as well.

GBPUSD looks like it is close to target so with Greece and other countries weighing on the €, maybe £ will start to outperform again vs Euro.

Dow Transport

Looking at this chart, it looks like the next big move should be down in equity indices, regardless of whether one is a BULL or a BEAR.

The weekly chart shows 5 clear thrusts up, a break of the uptrend. Then 1 move down, and at the moment in a rally.  If this is a correction of the March 09 rally, it seems too shallow, a 38,2 % or even a 50 % retrace would "look" better.  Then if it's a bull, a rally to new highs, if it's a bear we head  much lower..

AUDUSD

Trade on track..looks like the rally off the  7th Feb low has finished, tagged a 61.8% Fib level retrace at 9040, now at support 8879.  Looking for a re test of  broken trend line at 8960 ish for re short...

refer to previous posts correction ended or beginning and divergences continued..

if thi i next leg down...we could have a long way to go

AUDUSD

Stopped on initial position but re entered at higher level..the negative divergence looks better today ..a new recent high with RSI now turning down...plus on the 8hr chart below looks like we have a bearish reversal signal

Divergence continued..

Looking at AUDUSD again.. click for previous divergences post

AND NOW:

 

We can see RSI starting to turn down whilst price has more or less matched the previous high, setting up a NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE.  Short with a stop just above the recent high 9045, and look to cover half at the up trend line...a break of that and may see much lower levels.

Still looking at...EURGBP

EURGBP... with this rally looking to get short eurgbp chart Thursday Feb 11th

EURGBP as of today..

X ABCD on the chart is a possible BEARISH GARTLEY PATTERN