Copper

Copper looks ready to have a big move
COT data suggests UP

chart could go either way ..obviously BUT looks to be forming a base..so giving it 80% chance of upside break.

Crude oil almost reached it's target as per previous post

Crude oil

Crude Oil seems to have found a short term bottom and looks set to rise substantially as do most commodities

Bull flag target 96 ..but oil tends to overshoot on upside and downside, so more is possible.

GOLD ..follow up

Looking at the daily chart..

Lots of support at 1525, so only a significant close BELOW that level would turn the chart bearish..
Many  looking at 1540 level as key, so a break there MAY see quick sell..but 1525 looks stronger.
If we break higher out of the large wedge..eventual target would be close to 2000 USD

IF we break 1525 where could it go?  
Previous resistance was 1438 in 2011 and once it broke there 1476 was support on the pullback, so a range of 1438 to 1476 could be possible

GOLD and SILVER

A lot of bearish thoughts out there..so sentiment is pretty negative

Weekly charts for both show that the BULL side may prevail, though with the sentiment so negative it may be that we get a quick fall and even quicker reversal just to mess with the BEARS!

GOLD weekly

Action look similar to 2008 after it made a high then, ie corrective so a plus for the bulls.
The RSI is low
MACD looks like it wants to turn up.

SILVER weekly

The bearish argument rests on the large DESCENDING TRIANGLE, which a majority of time breaks down ie a bearish formation.

However it can also be viewed as a CONTINUATION pattern, ie the trend that was in place before the appearance of the triangle will re-assert itself..in this case UP.

This chart makes me think we will have a quick fall, and then the reversal higher.

DAX and FTSE bottomed, and breaking higher?

The DAX and FTSE look to have bottomed and now heading up.

Maybe it is just an extended correction of the move down, but also the €/$ has found support despite the NEGATIVE news with Spain, Greece and Europe generally..
IF they maintain bullish trend ...BUY corrections!!


DAX needs to break above 6430
DAX retraced close to 68 % (Fibonacci) of the rally from Oct 11

FTSE daily

Looks stronger technically than DAX as it has broken above previous high at 5585

FTSE also looks like a double bottom formed.

EURUSD LONG?

Weekly chart

starting to show signs of positive divergence, ideally a test of recent lows to reinforce the signal.
Shorts still at LARGE!

Daily chart

DAX, rally finally arrived..

Well the DAX was just 100 points away from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 5815, and has rallied..

BUT is it THE rally?
Pluses, the rally in EURUSD, rally in Gold and Silver, miners and commodities.

Negatives, sharp move up is characteristic of bear rallies (sellers step away, and shorts cover at any price),


6230 seems a key level to get over..before a corrective rally can be thrown out of the window.

Weekly chart
still in down trend.
a break above descending trend lines will be sign that down trend finished

DAILY chart

Shows market was oversold.

Resistance at 200 dma

Resistance at descending trendlines

so expect another 100+ points up for a reasonable short entry

DAX question answered!

The DAX has now reached the FLAG target outlined in this prior post and today seems to be "eager" to head to the Head and shoulder targets at 5875/5850.  It would not be surprising to see overshoot especially the US markets open weaker today.

Interestingly Spain's IBEX has outperformed the last couple of days; finishing in positive territory whilst Germany's DAX and the US's DOW finished very weak.  The FTSE also showed relative strength on Friday but the market has been closed Monday and Tuesday (GSTQ!!) so will be interesting to see the open tomorrow.

Also interesting is SENTIMENT.  Now we are trading 10%+ lower from the recent highs, everybody wants to SELL!!  As usual the "crowd" will be right for a short time, and then get KILLED. It seems that we may be between "ENOUGH is enough, I'm selling and will never touch stocks again" and "See what did I tell you?"

Still looking to buy at the lower levels..accumulate position.

DAX 3 hr chart

Gold ready to shine>

When the media start Gold bashing it is usually a sign of a turn in fortunes.  Gold has been in a down trend since it;s highs earlier this year and in a sideways consolidation since it's all time high in Sept 2011.

It looks like it is breaking out of it's down trend; the real test will b a break above the descending line C, 1710 and then a break of 1800 would target new HIGHS.

CABLE

Weekly chart

Still in large triangle
approaching lower boundary
1.53 BUY level  (stop close by)

Daily chart


Daily in the MEGAPHONE formation
Failed break out
expect a test of lower boundary and possible fake out on downside
successful test for LONG trade

DAX will FLAG and /or H&S targets be met?

DAX 3 hr charts

On 15/5 DAX broke down through support at 6420, which could also be construed as the neckline of a Head and Shoulders formation with a target near 5850.

Since May 16th DAX has been range bound 6220 to 6430.

Which way will it break?

Scenario 1 FLAG target at 6035
Scenario 2 Head and shoulders target at 5850
Scenario 3  market rallies from the consolidation, invalidating both of the above.


Rangebound action doesn't favour Head and shoulders normally more impulsive once the neckline is broken and retested.

Crude oil

Crude daily

85 dollar target? From breakdown of TRIANGLE

Major support at 80

IBEX capitulation selling starting?

Is the selling today the start of the capitulation?

May be a BUY soon..
IBEX down 2.62 % vs DAX up 0.7%

quick look at charts Monthly weekly and daily

Monthly
Key level on downside 5280 Monthly Support


and then 3910/4000

Weekly 

starting to go oversold

Daily

Positive divergence didn't do much for the price.  Indicators which were oversold now reset so another leg down possible to oversold again.  Maybe a positive divergence on bigger time frame setting up..

COPPER

Thermometer for the global economy

Weekly

Approaching the lower risk "BUY ZONE"

Speculative buy at the trendline support

Daily chart 

Approaching oversold on RSI

Trendline support

BUY on weakness

EURO approaching support

The EURO  (vs USD) is approaching support
sentiment is VERY negative
so conditions are ripe for a surprise to the UPSIDE..

EURO daily approaching head and shoulders target at 1.2520

Weekly

shows support.

¿Donde va el IBEX 35? Whither the IBEX 35?

IBEX mensual

Soporte roto      (support broken)

todavia no sobre vendido  (not oversold yet)

Próximo soporte 5100 !!!  (Next MAJOR support 5100)

IBEX semanal

Ha roto soporte @ 6600

Support broken at 6600

IBEX diario

A corto plazo empezando a formar divergencia positiva..puede que haya una subida por compra de posiciones vendidos a corto.

Short term beginning to show positive divergence between price and RSi, may lead to a SHARP short covering rally before resuming the down trend..

SHOULD coincide with rally in the major markets

DAX and FTSE update

Yesterday's rally was a bear rally.

strong, low volume, and serves to:

a. stop out the shorts
b. suck in the longs.

DAX

recently has been holding up pretty well, but not out of the BEAR woods YET..
A test of the lows at 6225 and a hold could be a nice BUY (tight stop)

IF it breaks the lows then we could see a PANIC move down to 6k or 5870
Nimble trading necessary as if it approaches the lower levels would be good LONG opp

FTSE

Similar to the DAX but with a clearer down move from the highs
Blew past the FLAG target (interesting that yesterday's rally went TO THE FLAG target)

5260 recent low WATCH this level !!
below targets:


5180 is the H&S target
5020 is KEY support
and below 4850


Unlikely to get to the lowest target, and at 5180 flattening out the shorts!
Below that look for longs

Ideas update AUDUSD

Aussie dollar...

Previous chart posted on May 8th 2012 full post here

Current chart

Rapidly approaching flag target at 9680

May overshoot a little

looking at longs from here

Sentiment seems very negative and conversely very positive for dollar

DAX

DAX still on a sell after breaking 6400...
If nimble can trade it from long side BUT TREND is DOWN...beware!

STOP for shorts  6450

Could rally to test 6400 again..(dependent on performance of US mkts)

DAX daily

DAX 30 mins

The trend is down , interesting that each retracement is testing the 61.8 % fib retrace

So has room to go to 6370 (if it carries on following the pattern)

LONG TERM

Sometimes it's good to "step back" and look at the LONGER term charts..MONTHLY.

All pretty self explanatory.
Breaking multi month up trends
In all 3 RSI has not reached the overbought levels seen in previous TOPS - more rally to come, or a sign that the rally is weaker then it looks?

DAX monthly

DOW INDUSTRIAL MONTHLY

FTSE 100  MONTHLY