Update DAX, FTSE

Still twitchy markets, hanging on political situation in USA

DAX daily

Despite all the political turmoil in the USA, the DAX has been very resilient and the down move least pronounced of the European markets.

It seems to suggest that actually the recent down trend is just a correction, and once the political scene in the USA is resolved (which it more likely will be), markets will attempt new highs.  QE likely to continue.

FTSE daily

The FTSE has corrected more sharply than the DAX and has nit made all time highs yet, possibly due to strength of the pound in recent weeks, plus a hit on retail sector, and mining.  QExpecting that more liquidity around the world will eventually raise inflation expectations and tangible assets will rally.

DAX month of gaps and range

Since Sept the DAX has basically traded in a narrow range, with the big moves coming on overnight GAPs to the upside, coming at all time highs.

After the last gap to all time highs (high 8771) the market has traded back to gap support around 8600 and for 4 days traded in a very narrow range 8700 to 8600.  What next?

Waiting for a break of 8600 for a bigger move down

or a break above 8700 to see if the bull move is renewed and new ATH on the horizon.

proceed with caution if a BULL tighten stops

if a BEAR beware breaking to new highs, may go further and faster than one may think

Daily chart

DAX weekly

DAX bull move intact

DAX 

The BULL move since Sept 2011 is STILL intact and EVEN a fall to 7950 wouldn't change this much.
If it finds support at or above this level, a good chance of new ATH or at least a retest of the highs.

ALTernative : The market is in the process of correcting the advance from JUNE 2011 a 62% retrace would be around 7050

OR the market is correcting the advance from SEPTEMBER 2011 , a 62 % retrace would be 6400

Obviously the latter scenarios (IE bigger corrections) will not be straight line affairs, but would change market from BULL to med term bearish (or short term bearish to med term bearish)

Monthly perspectives FTSE, DAX, S&P, DOW

A look at the monthly charts for major indices, LONG TERM.  Looking toppy ..but as they are longer term, may take a month or so to play out.  UNLESS they break significantly higher then odds are that the next BIG move is down, whether it be correction or END of this BULL MARKET from 2009.
A look at the charts shows some bearish divergences starting to show which in the past have all signalled start to significant down moves.

FTSE

DAX

S&P 500

DOW

Correction finally here? Fibonacci retraces

Have the equity markets finally reached a short term peak?

Look at weekly charts

FTSE

showing previous corrections related to Fibonacci retracements

So if a correction has started for worldwide indices can probably expect FTSE to find a low either at 38.2 % retrace 6125 or 61.8 %  5955 (approx)

now adding on some trend lines

DOW weekly

Perspective

The TREND is UP for most things, despite today's drop. Is today's drop the start of more significant correction? Or a bear trap?

FTSE

Sell support?or BUY support?

Commodities ready to make their move?

Commodities may be bottoming

Gold daily

near support
in down trend still but at bottom of channel and horizontal support close by 1550

Gold weekly

Copper daily

testing lower boundary of triangle (see weekly chart)
rebound to 377? 7%

Copper weekly

Silver daily

closer to support
at bottom of down channel
positive divergence RSI price

Finally a break out to the upside imminent

Are the markets poised to break higher..finally?
The consolidation has been longer than expected BUT
the downside has been limited
the weak longs are probably shaken out
the bears have been given some hope

so NOW the market may be ready for new highs

FTSE  4 hr chart
A break above 6426 and holding should mean a new high for the FTSE.
and eventually possible all time high

DAX

Similar to FTSE long consolidation after rally from November.  Again, despite only giving back max 4% the sentiment has been increasingly bearish.

Next hurdle for DAX is 7865

Euro vs USD

All currencies have been weak vs the USD recently. On the Euro daily chart it looks like some positive divergence creeping in.  Euro may be due for a rally, and conversely the dollar due a fall?

AAPL

still not getting any love and hatred increasing. 406 next support after that 380
Yesterday finally filled a gap
Despite AAPL falling NDX has been holding well, if/when AAPL rallies NDX has a bull flag target of 2900

Quick look at NDX

Rally not finished ..YET

Even though it feels like it yesterday's falls in equity markets (blamed on various things..Italian elections, US FISCAL CLIFF part II! etc etc) probably is NOT the beginning of a sustained bear market move.

Sentiment has reversed quickly , with the FEAR factor rising  rapidly..NOT normally the way BEAR mkts start

Looking at the weekly charts

DAX

Weekly chart

Hovering at support 7570/7580

would need to break that significantly for more sustained correction

trend line support and horizontal support  seen better on DAILY chart

FTSE weekly

Daily chart

Bells are NOT rung at market tops

The press is turning bearish.
Is it a TOP?
Very unlikely..
Correction likely, but with all the press calling for a SLIDE the risk is more to the upside the the downside

DAX

The DAX has been off everyone's radar on last few weeks..
Under performing, why? Well it had a big run up from NOV lows 13%, and despite FEELING bearish in last few weeks, has only retraced 4%.

Support  found around 7570
Has rallied 200 points in 2 days so short term may pull back.

Longer term consolidation looks to be over and ready for challenge on new highs

FTSE Next stage of rally

Looks like the consolidation has finished..now where

FTSE daily

found support at mid line of the up channel
Looks like should test upper boundary @ 6456 (approx)
TREND still UP

FTSE weekly

At resistance 6380. next target 6550

ALL time high looks like it will be tested, not necessarily bested.

Consolidation over?

DAX and FTSE have been consolidating after rally from November lows.  Is the consolidation finished?

It's looking increasingly like it.  Markets have given very little back; bears will be getting nervous, and buyers seem to be pressing.  The next rally could be the end of this run, but with quite a lot of bears around it may run further than expected.

FTSE

Looks like it has respected the channel it is in and bounced off the mid point

rally should head towards upper boundary 6426

DAX

seems to have found support at 7570

above 7726 should accelerate as bears give up

target minimum the highs..7860 though probably higher

NDX Nasdaq 100

After the big gap up traded in range 2700 /2760

very dependent on AAPL 

BUT has broken above that range

expect support 2750.2760

rally should carry eventually to 2890 or higher

Use AAPL weakness to buy dips!!

AAPL

Stiff resistance at 500

probably range bound 440 to 500

DJIA

 high level consolidation

everyone "expecting " correction

so probability is it heads higher..

a break above 14200 may accelerate

Can't see the wood for the trees!

Imagine looking at an oil painting from a distance of a couple of inches? You would not see much of the whole picture, a few splodges of paint.

Sometime charts can be like that especially if one is looking at them day in day out.  So at times it is best to STAND back so one can see the whole picture. That is look at the LONGER time frames, like the Monthly and Weekly charts.  Then it may become clearer what that picture is telling one!

Monthly Charts below
Pretty self explanatory

AUDUSD

CABLE

EURUSD

FTSE

DAX

DJIA

FTSE Neg divergence on DAILY

FTSE 
After a strong run seems the "pause" may have begun last week.  On the daily chart it looks like some negative divergence between price and RSI.  If we get a new high, with no corresponding high in RSI, will look for shorts but bearing in mind the trend is still up and the fall should just be a correction of the move up.

Min correction 6280
deeper correction could target 6170

Time for a break?

markets have been steadily grinding up.  So far no panic buying suggestive of a capitulation top.  However some markets look over extended for now.

FTSE daily, 4 hr and 2 hr

Looking at various time frames they all seem to be overbought.  Ideally a retrace would be good for refreshing the trend up.  However it may be the FTSE trades flat rather than trading down significantly.  

3 main options

1. a correction within the up channel, first target the mid line of the up channel (dashed line)

2. trade sideways until overbought conditions are relieved.

3. market continues up and more extended, but would lead to a more dramatic correction, espcially of the rally is sharp and in "blow off" style.

Week 3 ..CONSOLIDATION

January week 3.

Markets have consolidated the recent gains, most notably the DAX, which had a month of up days with little correction.  FTSE flirting with 6100/6070 as support.  EURO broke through 1.33 and looks to be back testing that level, holding above 1.325.  Cable notable under performer clinging to 1.60 level.

S&P very tight range 1465/1473

Oil, gold and silver have also held their rallies, as copper consolidates

OPEX week so not expecting major change this week. 

AAPL trading dominated by emotions.  $500 key PSYCHOLOGICAL level was broken mid week, and subsequently recovered.  The POSITIVE divergence on the DAILY chart continues and it is possible that the drop below $500 has now cleared out weak hands and "emotional " selling.  AAPL has also caused to NDX to under perform so a turnaround should be reflected many times in the NDX

CHARTS

FTSE Daily

May still be a move down but would not expect 6000 to be reached, more likely 6050 if anything

More likely scenario is a break higher once this consolidation is finished with.  Targeting 6400

DAX daily

DAX also consolidating (pink box) after the strong rally from November low.(light blue arrow)

Also looks like it will be on the way to new highs once this is over.

Possible for a scary move down MAX 7560 (in the scheme of things not that big a fall, but would shake out any weak hands).  More likely we have seen the extent of this consolidation, and a break above 7800 , targets 8000 and maybe higher. 

EURO daily

The EURUSD looks to be headed higher 1.35 first target.  Projected path pull back and then rally further towards 1.40 level, which SHOULD coincide with new highs in equities and a push higher in commodities.

Cable daily chart

1.60 looked to be key level..but like AAPL probably more psychological with a lot of stops just below. More important should be 1,5970

tentative EW labeling ! Maybe we are poised for wave iii up. Target 1.63 and beyond

A drop below 1.5830 changes things

AAPL daily

NDX daily chart

The GAP up has not been filled (BULLISH)

looks to be forming BULL flag between 2710 and 2750

A sustained break above 2750 could target 2890 (measured move)

NDX weekly chart

Chart is pretty self explanatory

a sustained break above the rectangle  and we could see similar move to August 2012