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Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius

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Friday, January 18, 2019

CNBC says it's "SAFE" to buy the market

Jim Cramer declared that the bear market finished on Christmas Eve - criterion?  That the market was down about 20 %.

Yesterday they said that it was now safe to "BUY" the market after this 12 % rally from the recent lows;

However if this was just the beginning of a bear market (which tend to last anywhere between 12-24 months) - we have only seen it for 3 months (so far) - what does it say about the rally - strong as it seems - is this a sign the BULL is back?

Well the last significant bear move was 2008.

Dow chart from 2008
1. can see the initial fall from the topping pattern was about 18% (2018 - 20%)
2. Rally from that first low was 12% (2019 -12%)

3.  Market then fell 18% and made a lower low - 
4 Market rallied 9 % (weaker)
5 Finally 27 % fall 
6 small rally 
7 final fall and capitulation



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