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Mood!

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Rangebound..wedges?



Olive pruning time...25 trees pruned...ready for next year...

On to markets..Equity markets look range bound...forming wedges (bearish patterns..) and looks like a few more weeks left to complete...THEN another leg down?

Meanwhile Xmas trading will be light and volatile...Santa Claus rally next week? ..though most peopel are EXPECTING one...will he be giving out pieces of COAL this year?

Oil tried to rally but failed....not good for the equity markets. Gold could be in period of consolidation after a nice run up, but as interest rates around the world head to ZERO, Gold becomes more attractive to investors.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Some more CRUDE thoughts

Crude oil and commodities generally have had a good rally over the last 2 days. Spotlight on crude..it has broken above 3rd descending fanline so we may have a push to 62 (65.3 is a 23.8 % retrace of fall from 150). Initial resistance at 48 (being tested today) then 55.5... this rally would tie in with the rally in equities and euro (also seems to have cleared resistance today).

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Possible reverse Head and shoulders DOW target 10040!

See chart...pull back to 8500 8450 level...BUY looking for 10040...stop 8125..risk 375 reward 1540...

LOOKS like shorter term trading the order of the day...for a while...Santa rally...
BUT on the daily looks like we need a close above 10500 for things to change to bullish longer term...

Look for commodities to confirm the und OIL GOLD etc etc...also a weaker dollar...if those are not there SUSPECT the rally!

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Yesterday's late rally..and other things




Yesterday's late rally in Dow looked like either PPT or BUY programs...OIL, GOLD and EURO did not follow...so looked like a classic bull trap...again..

Look at DOW chart above...

The KEY seems to be watch the YEN...a strong yen has been signal for continued selling...see JPY chart.

Any turnaround in markets should be signalled by weaker yen, stronger euro, and rising OIL...and other commodities...YES OIL is POSITIVELY correlated with stocks over the long term..ie OIL falls stocks fall, oil rises stocks rise. Look at any long term charts of oil and dow...

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Taking the red path (for now)



Look at charts in previous post...seems we are taking the red path for now..but we may be in process of setting up for a higher low and then a more sustained rally? The key will be the lows in November holding....Looking at various weekly charts..EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, OIL....all look oversold...however on daily charts most have formed flags....so another leg down may be on the cards.... see charts above...

This leg down may be short and sharp...final exhaustion...last of the sellers - at least for a while!!

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