Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Rally not finished ..YET

Even though it feels like it yesterday's falls in equity markets (blamed on various things..Italian elections, US FISCAL CLIFF part II! etc etc) probably is NOT the beginning of a sustained bear market move.
Sentiment has reversed quickly , with the FEAR factor rising  rapidly..NOT normally the way BEAR mkts start

Looking at the weekly charts


Weekly chart
Hovering at support 7570/7580
would need to break that significantly for more sustained correction

trend line support and horizontal support  seen better on DAILY chart

FTSE weekly

Daily chart

Friday, February 22, 2013

Bells are NOT rung at market tops

The press is turning bearish.
Is it a TOP?
Very unlikely..
Correction likely, but with all the press calling for a SLIDE the risk is more to the upside the the downside

Wednesday, February 20, 2013


The DAX has been off everyone's radar on last few weeks..
Under performing, why? Well it had a big run up from NOV lows 13%, and despite FEELING bearish in last few weeks, has only retraced 4%.

Support  found around 7570
Has rallied 200 points in 2 days so short term may pull back.

Longer term consolidation looks to be over and ready for challenge on new highs

FTSE Next stage of rally

Looks like the consolidation has finished..now where

FTSE daily

found support at mid line of the up channel
Looks like should test upper boundary @ 6456 (approx)
TREND still UP

FTSE weekly

At resistance 6380. next target 6550
ALL time high looks like it will be tested, not necessarily bested.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Consolidation over?

DAX and FTSE have been consolidating after rally from November lows.  Is the consolidation finished?

It's looking increasingly like it.  Markets have given very little back; bears will be getting nervous, and buyers seem to be pressing.  The next rally could be the end of this run, but with quite a lot of bears around it may run further than expected.

Looks like it has respected the channel it is in and bounced off the mid point
rally should head towards upper boundary 6426


seems to have found support at 7570
above 7726 should accelerate as bears give up
target minimum the highs..7860 though probably higher

NDX Nasdaq 100

After the big gap up traded in range 2700 /2760
very dependent on AAPL 
BUT has broken above that range
expect support 2750.2760
rally should carry eventually to 2890 or higher
Use AAPL weakness to buy dips!!


Stiff resistance at 500
probably range bound 440 to 500


 high level consolidation
everyone "expecting " correction
so probability is it heads higher..
a break above 14200 may accelerate

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Can't see the wood for the trees!

Imagine looking at an oil painting from a distance of a couple of inches? You would not see much of the whole picture, a few splodges of paint.

Sometime charts can be like that especially if one is looking at them day in day out.  So at times it is best to STAND back so one can see the whole picture. That is look at the LONGER time frames, like the Monthly and Weekly charts.  Then it may become clearer what that picture is telling one!

Monthly Charts below
Pretty self explanatory







Monday, February 4, 2013

FTSE Neg divergence on DAILY

After a strong run seems the "pause" may have begun last week.  On the daily chart it looks like some negative divergence between price and RSI.  If we get a new high, with no corresponding high in RSI, will look for shorts but bearing in mind the trend is still up and the fall should just be a correction of the move up.

Min correction 6280
deeper correction could target 6170

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