DOW bull back..or pull back?

Looking at the rally from March 09 we can see 3 drives up.. a break of the up trend and now in a rally question is "Is this part of the correction of March 09 rally?"  OR  "is this the start of another leg up?"

BEAR CASE..
 

1.  We have 3 drives up, so would expect a "correction" at least
2. Current correction has not even retraced 23.6 % of the rally..normally would expect to at elast 38.2 % or 50 %.
3. Could be we have made an A  down, B up (currently), and next will be C down similar scenario to post here Dow Transport..clues


BULL CASE

1. retrace has been small so far..indicates "lack of selling"
2.  Close to making new highs for the current rally
3. Could be we have ALREADY made A B C correction...

EITHER way we should see resolution soon..maybe Friday NFP day (non farm payrolls)..

Dax  is still lagging FTSE and DOW

Dow Transport

Looking at this chart, it looks like the next big move should be down in equity indices, regardless of whether one is a BULL or a BEAR.

The weekly chart shows 5 clear thrusts up, a break of the uptrend. Then 1 move down, and at the moment in a rally.  If this is a correction of the March 09 rally, it seems too shallow, a 38,2 % or even a 50 % retrace would "look" better.  Then if it's a bull, a rally to new highs, if it's a bear we head  much lower..