Ho hum - bull or bear - take your pick!

Nasdaq 100 -

2 scenarios - 1 Bullish - 2 Bearish
Which is more probable?  
probably scenario 1 - low rates here to stay, Fed, ECB and other central banks pumping liquidity into markets - which forces savers to look for returns in riskier assets (stocks, bonds etc)
BUT  there is always a probability for scenario 2 - maybe a, "wake up and smell the coffee moment" i.e.  the "people" finally realise that the Emperor really is wearing nothing!


1 Ascending triangle with a break out at week ending 01119

2 Rising wedge

  

Cable - broke support

So the cable set up seems to be playing out.

short with stop above 1.2720
it broke support and then tested that support which now look like resistance. Target medium term 1.1875 (triangle measurement)
lower  stop after today's trading

Updated chart below

Cable 2 hours

Previous post below:
Cable  looks to have broken an important support at 1.2670 (ish).
Wait for either a retest in case it's a false break or selling momentum increases to sell


Obviously a lot of Brexit news (not for the faint-hearted) but measured price target if the selling continues will be around 1.1870

Cable daily chart

Monday mini-musings

DOW daily

just supports and resistance
Triangle still in play - near the bottom of this - so if nimble can buy with a stop


Caution : if it breaks support  - could be fast move down
Also this is the third test of support - more inclined to sell short  on a rally -

If it stays in the triangle , may head to upper boundary
Bias: still down

G(20) - whizz - friends again?

Some of the statements made by Trump after the G20

"If it happens it goes down as one of the largest deals ever made"  

“was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China”.

"amazing and productive." 

"a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial"

This is to be expected based on past form, and yesterday it continued regarding car tariffs.

So what have we had?

A rally based on Fed chairman Powell - back tracking - 

A rally based on a "truce" between China and USa in their trade war.

Turning on the TV to listen to CNBC the media machine is in full force pushing the bullish side.

Comments like " the Santa rally is here", " we've had the correction and now it's time to buy", "the worries about interest rates and trade wars have receded" - to me it seems everyone is bullish.

Look at the charts (a picture of the behaviour of all active participants in that instrument).

DOW JONES (headline index)

Monthly chart

Not much changed on the longer term - still showing negative divergence between price and RSI

Target price still there 23150 (approx) trendline support and horizontal support (look left)

Closer look

DOW weekly 

RSI not oversold
At a minimum expect it to test 23150 ish
behaviour then will give clues to next pathway
1.  a fall through there and this may be a full blown bear market
2 a hold there and rally may be sign that this is a correction and now on way to new highs

As always makrets are dynamic keep eye on levels and probabilities

Even closer look

DJI daily
So could be forming a triangle  - watch the boundaries
at present we are near the top so short - obviously a sustained break above would increase chances that this correction is over
A break below the lower boundary - and target comes onto play and maybe more

   Other thoughts

Everyone is expecting a santa rally into year end
Bull market is 10 years old
Earnings outlook for 2019 may be getting cloudy

GOLD ..follow up

Looking at the daily chart..

Lots of support at 1525, so only a significant close BELOW that level would turn the chart bearish..
Many  looking at 1540 level as key, so a break there MAY see quick sell..but 1525 looks stronger.
If we break higher out of the large wedge..eventual target would be close to 2000 USD

IF we break 1525 where could it go?  
Previous resistance was 1438 in 2011 and once it broke there 1476 was support on the pullback, so a range of 1438 to 1476 could be possible

Euro decided?

Looks like the EURUSD has decided which way it's going and for NOW that seems to be down.

Broken support at 1.30/1.2960
Target 1.2510

Close stop @ 1.30 (tight) or 1.3055 (looser)

Daily chart (yesterday's close)

EURO

EURO weekly

recent action shows similar pattern to that between April and August 2011.  Will it resolve in same way?  I.e. DOWN?

The daily chart shows what appears to be a TRIANGLE or Head and Shoulders formation

Upper boundary around 1.3270

Lower boundary 1.30 (neckline, base triangle)

Cable /EURGBP

Cable has been relatively strong recently both vs the € and the US$, why? Maybe with the continuing EURO area problems, and a perception that the UK has a more flexible economy and an independent Central Bank, there may be (ironically) a rush to "safety" !

Looking at the charts

Cable daily close up


Still trading within what looks like a BROADENING WEDGE or MEGAPHONE
Key level seems to be 1.61 (trading at 1.6060 at time of writing)
strong resistance just above between 1.61 and 1.62

CABLE daily

Big picture could still be a large Head and Shoulders formation, a break out above 1.61 probably invalidates this and resistance would then be at 1.65

EURO/GBP


Hovering above key support , break through or rally?

EURO support test and PASS!

The €/$ tested support at 1.30 yesterday and passed with "flying" colours...now it has to overcome the next test to the upside at around the 1.32 level...and then the declining trend line at 1.3370 for a real push higher towards 1.37/1.40

A failure here could see another push down, below 1.30 next stop 1.26

EURO daily

The €/$ (EURUSD) is hovering at support near 1.30, TRIANGLE or Head n shoulders?

Similar to COPPER chart in that we could see a false break lower, followed by a strong rally...

Or  a move lower and test of the lows at 1.26

break though neckline or triangle lower boundary , target is 1.2550


Break through upper boundary triangle , target is 1.3790

Copper update

More weakness today and pushing through the upward trend line..now it could be a FALSE break.  Wait for follow through to downside, or if it fails then chances increase that it's a false break and the triangle target at 440 remains

COPPER at key level

Copper is taking it's time to find a way to the target from the break out of the symmetrical triangle and after yesterday's fall is right at the rising trend line, which SHOULD be support..HOWEVER the picture is less clear now and a fall through here could see a significantly sharper fall.

Volume on yesterday's drop was high..and may have exhausted the drop..

Worth keeping eye on as Dr Copper usually is a good indicator of the world economy...

GBPUSD Cable revisited

CABLE WEEKLY CHART


Still in large triangle, tested the lower boundary and now rebounded.  Also breaking a down trend from 1.67 high in August 2011, so LONGER TERM could be ready to head to the upper boundary at approx 1.65

CABLE DAILY CHART


On the daily also looks like the bear case has weakened, and if we break 1.5930 to the upside 1.65 could be possible. Some more consolidation may be needed before this, but it looks like BUY on weakness..rather than SELL on strength.

4 HOUR CHART

Copper back to first support level

Copper still on target for higher levels form the triangle break out pattern.

Now retracing at first support 374/373 (previous high)

Possible to get move down as low as 365 (retest of the break out level)

Basically overbought indicators are now reset..

COPPER DAILY

Copper and Crude

Copper has been leading the "RISK" rally since mid December, BUT now looks like a rest is needed with NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE shown on the chart, also coinciding with short term dollar strength...

Possible move to as low as 365, but 375 looks more likely before resumption of the trend UP, targeting 440/450 ..

COPPER DAILY 

CRUDE OIL also looks close to breaking our of recent consolidation and a move above 100/101 could start the next leg up there targeting 114 minimum..

Copper nice move up, time for a rest?

Copper broke out of the triangle
and now looks a little over extended on the daily chart...HOWEVER the upside target from the triangle is still in the region of 439..

BUT there should be a pullback soon which would be a good long entry.  Maybe even if nimble some small shorts to play the correction could be had...risky against the trend..

Aussie dollar vs USD ..

Might be time to take some profits if long AUDUSD and wait for pullback for re-entry...
Or if really nimble SHORT..but it would be against the trend and for very short term..

Would probably tie in with a pullback in equity markets see previous post here

Longer term if triangle break out is not a false one..at a minimum should see this test the highs vs USD at 1.1

CABLE head and shoulders or Double Bottom?

Like many indices it seems that most are universally BEARISH on cable, euro and Aussie dollar vs dollar.

Looking at the daily CABLE (£/$) chart

The BEAR case (head and shoulders) is clearly outlined and would target 1.40 or lower

However there is pretty strong support mid term at the 1.53 level..and we may have already bottomed or one more dip lower before we rally.  Also we seems to have broken out of a falling wedge..(bullish)

Be prepared

Sometimes it pays to look at a longer time frame

Looking at the WEEKLY chart

We can see since 2009 a large triangle is playing out which looks like an ASCENDING TRIANGLE.

We are also near the rising trend line forming the bottom of the triangle and resistance is around 1.65

DAX 1 hr and 2 hr charts

DAX 1 hr chart showing classic triangle, false break a couple of days ago..subsequent shoer squeeze mad a lower high again, today we have the break lower.  MIND the GAP DOWN...expecting a fill and add to short..if we get a close back in the triangle..stop out

 

2 hr chart shows longer view and target area, which can be seen to be previous support and resistance area.

DAX topping or consolidation?

Dax has been in a range since Feb this year... UPPER BOUNDARY at 6360

 Could be an ascending triangle (bullish scenario) with a break above 6360 signalling new highs..OR could be part of a rising wedge (which if it breaks t the downside would be BEARISH).

Since we are near the TOP of the range got to be short here, looking for at least  a test of the lower boundary, or a decisive break lower (VERY BEARISH).

The weekly chart shows possible rising wedge, and the range bound formation, in relation to the all time highs