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Mood!

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

FTSE breaking out !

FTSE daily

Breaking above declining resistance
next key level if we stay up 6100
a break above there can open up test of highs at 6800 ..see weekly chart below




FTSE weekly

expect some pause at around 6100 level
may even be a SHORT level..but BEWARE a push through 6100 especially if strong.


Tuesday, December 18, 2012

EURUSD on track for target

EURUSD

Looks to be on track for target
maybe as early as 1st week of Jan..if it can break above 1.32 soon


APPLE

AAPL

Daily chart, seems to be setting up POSITIVE divergence (price makes new low, but RSI does not).

Sentiment: seems nobody likes AAPL at 500 !! Yet at 700 EVERYONE wants to BUY.

Some sayings which could be applied to AAPL now.

BUY in the red , SELL in the blue, ie Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.

Warren Buffet " Be fearful when others are greedy, Be GREEDY when others are fearful"



Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Buy or sell? DAX, FTSE. DOW, NDX

Follow up on previous post  with FTSE DOW and NDX thrown in for good measure
Long? tighten stops
Short? stops are close by, and be ready to reverse on confirmed break higher...

Markets are poised for a break out higher..but will it be after another shake out??
Where's the crystal ball?

Monthly charts for LONG term investors

DAX

OK ! We may be about to break resistance and head to the highs around 8,000 BUT each time we have entered the highlighted area there has been a severe setback for the DOW.  Will history repeat itself ? (or at least rhyme?)


FTSE

Also approaching a resistance band may be quite tough getting through. If it does, then can probability increases for a min test of the highs at 7,000



DOW

Clear up trend.   A break above recent highs should see test of all time high at 14k.  



NDX

Monthly shows clear up trend with recent weakness testing support and rallying.  a rally should go to new highs above 3,000.
Very dependent on AAPL

AAPL DAILY chart


Oversold rally from around 505 level.  Another sell off almost testing the lows.  watch for
either a new low and rally, with RSI diverging (ie no new low in RSI)
or a move from here above 558 for signs that bottom is in.



Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Groundhog Day !! DAX

From  October 17th post..

"bumping against resistance, 7440.7480 key levels.  A break above that opens way for much higher prices."

Well here we are again...


"Possible that we rally and fail at 7500, that would make for a more bearish case, but we would need to see a break below key levels below 7170.

Likelihood is a rally to test 7500 and then a retrace; BUY the dip (If nimble enough trade the short side but beware of sustained move higher)"

We moved a lot lower than expected touching 6950, so the market is shaking out longs and shorts, and has effectively stayed in a range with extremes 7470 and 6950.

NOW we are near 7500 again.  Will THIS time be different?

European markets are near highs
US markets are still between 4.5 and 7 % off highs.
EURO has been strong
Precious metals weak



DAX

Either

1. broken out of bull flag, in which case a "test" of the red line is probable before heading higher.  The higher we go without a correction, the probability increase that we see a correction of at least 3 %, before heading higher.



OR

2. The DAX is forming a right angle broadening TOP 
from Edwards and Magee " Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"
"..Right Angled Broadening formations carry bearish implications, regardless of which side is horizontal.."
".. A horizontal side indicates either accumulation or distribution at a fixed price, depending of course on which side is horizontal. And it follows, logically, that any decisive break through the horizontal side has immediate forceful significance. Thus if a Broadening price pattern with a flat top boundary develops after a good advance, and if prices finally burst through that top line on high volume and close above it to a conclusive extent (roughly 3%), then it is safe to assume that the preceding uptrend will be resumed and carried on for a worthwhile move.  This does happen, although it is rare.  The odds favour the opposite; i.e., the eventual victory of the forces of distribution which created the horizontal top and a break away into an extensive decline"


So a break above 7500 MUST 
be on HIGH volume
preferably a decisive close above that (suggested 3%)


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