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Mood!

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

The UBER bullish scenario..FTSE...

Well today it looks like quite a few markets are breaking out of what looks like BULL FLAGS on daily charts..albeit quite BIG ones!
As the markets usually like to throw curve balls and the world press are super negative and bearish...what IF???
Just a thought to keep at the back of one's mind...

(that plus the Falling wedges in FX may me adding up to a not so bearish future..medium term)


EURO DOLLAR falling wedge (bullish)

Additional notes after re-reading my Edwards and Magee "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"...unlike a Rising Wedge ("When prices break out of a Rising Wedge they usually fall away rapidly"), in a Falling Wedge "they are more apt to drift sidewise or in a dull "saucering-around" movement before they begin to rise"

May not be applicable to FX ..but worth watching..







Still BAD news...


European news (bad news) still dominating Financial press and TV media, everybody assuming the rally is a "flash in the pan"...and that EUROPE is DOOMED!!

Still too much negativity..
Expecting a lot of churning still at these levels..buy on weakness





Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Commodities

SILVER


Silver...seems to be at support..around 30 USD. could have a move up to 35, and ideally a move up to 38/40
where it may be a SHORT

COPPER

Copper also looks like finding support at around 325..
Move to 400? on the cards

CRUDE OIL
Slightly different chart...
Broke uptrend last week...now is that enough of a breather for a run to new highs?
Was overbought, recent sell off has reset indicators..
A break of 95 to downside changes bullish view


DAX daily update

Well the fall out of the chop was a little deeper than expected..BUT we are still in a channel and now approaching a key level 5785.. a break above that and the rally is back on...otherwise we may just trade in the channel.

Things to note..

1. Despite all the negative news markets have not "fallen out of bed" ie they have only given up between 50 - 70 % of the rally from October lows
2.  The media are extremely negative on everything.
3. Despite all the negativity surrounding the EURO €, also has held up relatively well
4.  Likelihood is that the money is all betting on demise of Euro and Europe...

Looking at the EURO chart
Looks like we could be in falling wedge patterns
If we break out to upside (expected move) then in theory the entire falling wedge will be retraced..
(similar patterns also in AUDUSD and GBPUSD)

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

ALL BAD NEWS?!!!



FT and Marketwatch headlines for today...all negative news..note to self BEWARE of being short at these levels..
Many blogs are touting end of the world scenarios and 2008 comparisons
Holiday in US quiet trading for rest of week

Friday, November 18, 2011

Crude ready for a correction?

The news channels (CNBC etc) all highlighting crude as it hit 103 yesterday...not being a CYNIC but usually they get excited at the top of the market, anyway the chart shows crude had been straight up (more or less) since Oct 4

Time for a breather?


DAX daily A look at the CHOP!!


Well July to September was a noce move down and the rally off the lows in October was also a good tradeable move...NOW we are in that circle of CHOP///

Note: Key is preservation of capital...

Personally I feel the bullish scenario will win once this chop is over..too many bears looking for the drop, high VIX (volatility), and  DESPITE the bad news, EU coming to an end,  blah blah blah...we are in a CHOP...

Obviously as in all trading many scenarios could play out...but i give the BULLISH case 75% and the bearish case 25%..

Well it's FRIDAY so not a good day to bet big either way..

Short OIL
Long DAX
Short EURO/DOLLAR
Long FTSE (day trade)
Short DOW

DOW DAX spread chart
at  these levels looks good to buy DAX and Sell DOW


Friday, November 11, 2011

DAX 4 hours...bigger picture

Well the negative news seems to not be able to drive the market significantly lower SO it seems that it will go higher...

Looking at the DAX 4 hr chart 2 scenarios

THE BEARISH CASE
possible H&S pattern with neckline at around 5730 (tested yesterday) and a price target of 5000 (September lows)

THE BULLISH CASE
We moved up from 23rd Sept low and have now retraced 50% of the move up (A to B), and could be in a bull flag formation, and pretty close to a break out to the upside (6000), with a min target of 6600 and possibly even as high as 7200..

LONG TERM
If we completed a wave 1 down at the Sept lows and we are now in a wave 2 up, wave 2's tend to bring back that bullish feeling and can even approach the highs, before we turn down in a WAVE 3 ..THE BIG ONE!!

DAX 4 hr chart
SO a Xmas rally and into New Year before the next wave down occurs..

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

DAX 2 hours


Well Europe still dominating the news and a lot of nervousness...but maybe too much for a serious market break down?

DAX 2 hours support at 5735 if we break down significantly may head to test lows at 5000..BUT probably a lot of market participants looking for the fall so BEWARE if a false break occurs, could be the thing that ignites the SANTA rally...and then head to 7000 before falling again...

be nimble!!

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