Finally ! The beginning of the end?

Well it finally looks like equity markets will resolve the last months trading range to the upside after a false downside break last week.  HOWEVER this looks to be the final move up before the SIGNIFICANT correction...

There seem to be a few divergences..

USD is rallying even as equity markets are rallying...(is smart money already going into safe (perceived) assets?)

Looks like new highs (if we get there)  will be diverging from RSI

DAX 3 hrs

DAX DAILY

A break above 7000 could see 7200 pretty quickly, but looks like that will be the end of this leg up or may be the end of the BULL run for now....either way the next big move will be down...

patience..wait for it !

FTSE DAILY




 Finally making a move to 6100?

DAX following corrective path

Well the DAX has recovered..
Now is it corrective with another leg down?  Or will we challenge the highs at 7000?

This DAX chart shows the projected correction of the move down
and below the current updated chart..

SO FAR it has followed the black arrows almost perfectly..
resistance looks to be around 6830 (good STOP area if shorting)

DAX 1 hour

Quick look at the FTSE 30 mins chart which also shows the rally has touched resistance at 5870..
may provide clues to overall market if we turn down again here

Cable ..BIG picture

While the markets are treading water today time to look at the longer time frames of various instruments.

Cable daily chart

The head and shoulders formation pointed out in this post seems to still be valid and actually LOOKS better as the left shoulder was a complex one and the potential right shoulder shows some symmetry with the left now.  Obviously there is quite a distance to the neckline of the formation at around 1.53,  BUT ....we could see that level if the dollar index continues to strengthen and heads to 81.  The important thing to watch is how it reacts to support at 1.53.

short term ... 1 hour chart


Looks pretty self explanatory

DAX different time frames. Full Moon tomorrow

After the DAX fell over 3 % yesterday, today SHOULD see some form of consolidation of the move down.  How it transpires will show if there is further weakness in the markets.  FULL MOON tomorrow

DAX 1 hour chart

On the chart are drawn black arrows (purely speculative) of how this correction could take place..

Targets around 6400 for DAX, before the rally continues.

DAX 3 hr chart


In this chart we can see that price is getting close to the top of the shaded rectangle, previous resistance, so a pause there should be in order.  A break below that would target the base of the rectangle.

DAX daily


The daily chart shows the NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE(price/RSI)  which translated into yesterday's fall.
Major support is now 6400, if this move is a correction it may take a few days/ week to get there.  
200 day ma support at 6274

DAX weekly

The DAX weekly shows the possible Elliott Wave count, and we can still be following either the red scenario, or the black arrow scenario.
Either way it is clear that the major support is at 6400 or just below

Correcto !

Well my gut feel as posted here was correct (so far)..

I LIKE BEAR moves..

They are normally quicker than BULL market moves..
Volatility tends to pick up so there  more intra-day opportunities

Just got to remember don't get married to the bear position YET..
Probably a good 10 % minimum correction and then it will be right to don the BULL outfit again!

AAPL

Apple looks like it will conform the negative divergence which has been forming..
watch out for sharp correction

Which will take NDX lower as well

AUDUSD at support..for the moment

AUDUSD 8 hr chart




At support around 1.0595.  Most significant event was the attempt to break out at 1,8 which failed.  If it breaks 1.0595 could be quick move to 1.05 before a corrective rally, or if support holds corrective rally could be happening now.

Waiting...

Still waiting for the markets to move one way or other..
FTSE still stuck in 100 point range, DAX near resistance at 7000, DOW near 13,000, NASDAQ Comp near 3000...

FTSE 

DAX


The large black arrow shows the RESISTANCE it has to go through for additional gains.
Methinks not this time..

BUT................

some warning signs in other asset classes like currencies and commodities. OIL is weaker and  COPPER also seems to want a bigger retrace before any greater rally.

AUDUSD is struggling after an attempt at breaking out of a BULL FLAG ..CONSOLIDATION last week at 1.08.  If it doesn't do it soon, a failed break out is a good signal for a decent move the oppsoite way..ir DOWN vs USD.

On the MONTHLY chart some Elliott Wave numbering for fun..
Could it be we are seeing a truncated 5th wave?Truncation A truncated fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. It can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in Figures 6 and 7. Truncation gives warning of underlying weakness or strength in the market. In application, a truncated fifth wave will often cut short an expected target. This annoyance is counterbalanced by its clear implications for persistence in the new direction of trend.

Here is a graphical representation of a truncated 5th wave

 

and here is the AUDUSD monthly chart

DULL...something's going to give soon?

Looking at the FTSE 3 hr chart it has moved in basically 100 point range for the whole of February.

Something's going to give..

either a break up out of the range

or a correction of the move up from December 2011

Bear in bull clothes

I've been bullish since Oct last year but now am leaning bearish at least short term expecting a decent pull back in markets soon , after which it will be a buy opportunity again
Prob a 10 % decline
Everybody on mainstream financial news turning bullish so going to do opposite!!

DAX nearing resistance band

DAX WEEKLY

Dangerous using Elliott waves , but looks good!

So IMO nearing some hefty resistance, question is "is there one more push up left?" before the correction?
DAX is up 30 % from the November 2011 lows..with barely a pause..

Maybe a push up to above 7000 to suck in late longs and stop out shorts before markets turn.
5-10 % correction would be healthy..

Ideally a small drop and new highs first before larger correction, but larger correction could start here.

Looking at AUDUSD (risk on risk off leading indicator) it has broken out of bull flag, so new highs SEEM likely..
BUT BE NIMBLE!!

DAILY CHART

On the daily the major resistance is the shaded light blue area (6990-7100).  Feeling is market will try and pierce this, before deeper correction.

Cable consolidation over? or topping?

Cable (GBPUSD) seems to have consolidated it's move up from the lows at  1.53

Now at resistance near the 200 day ma, and horizontal resistance.  A significant break above clears way to 1.6140 and beyond as per previous post  here

Looking at the daily chart

This shows the horizontal resistance levels clearly

Also the recent corrective action could be an Elliott wave ABC correction.

Move from Jan low (1.5256) to Feb high (1.5898) = 642 pips

 if next move is equal to this 1.5936 + 642 = 1.6578 (ie close to 1.66)

4 hour chart

Pull back possible before heading higher..

Can be short at 1.5930 with a tight stop

Or wait for pullback and stop below 1.58

If break out higher 1.62 target off the 4 hour chart ( close to 1.6140 target off daily chart above)