Thursday, October 30, 2008

DAX time for a correction?

DAX has rallied 25 % off the low at 4000, too much too soon? On shorter term charts also showing a wedge formation (usually bearish), once we break below we should see a correction of this rally - if not new market lows...ALso volume has been falling on the rally...maybe a throwover of top line then - fall..

As I said in previous posts..we need to build a base for a longer term sustainable rally..

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

too much , too soon? or too much - too late?

Markets rally 10 % in ONE day !- mainly shorts covering positions, and the fact that markets are SEVERELY oversold SHORT TERM.. - so what does that mean? Mainly that long term investors have not had time to commit "new" money to the market...LONGER term problems have not been solved - expect more volatile trading and possibly one more LEG down..

so what would be ideal ? Another test of the lows and a few weeks trading near the lows - giving time to build a base the (maybe) we can move up over the medium term....

Quick moves like yesterdays are hot air - and when it cools down it all comes crashing down again -

Interest rates cut to 1% in US of A - will it really make a difference? to the main news headlines it will - and MAYBE add a little confidence to the market - BUT in reality the problems we face are caused by too much debt and too few savings...cutting to 1% hardly encouraging new savings! Plus with all the liquidity being given to banks interest rates are effectively already at 1 % or lower - but not to the MAN in the street....

Friday, October 24, 2008

END of dollar rally???

Talking heads keep saying dollar rally is "flight to safety" - RUBBISH...imho it is purely demand for dollars form US international funds being liquidated and repatriation of dollars to the US. HOW Long will it last? I'm sure we are close to a top for the dollar..look at the charts...extreme overbought/oversold (depends which currency you are looking from!)

Thursday, October 23, 2008


Been raining here on and off for a few weeks now..ground sodden. Managed to plant mange tout, self sown sweetcorn, and French beans still have aubergines, butter nut squash, and peppers. Next in the ground when it dries out a bit: cabbages, cauliflowers, broccoli, onions, broad beans. Olive harvest next for some nice virgin oil..

DOW JONES - bottom coming

Looking at the chart, looks like this steep descent must end soon (relatively speaking) could be another 1000 points away !! But worth bearing in all out panic/ washout - call it what you will - would be good for a start and a decent "tradeable" rally. Another plus would be when CNBC reporters stop trying to pick bottoms!!



What's happened to gold? Looks like the classic case of "throwing the baby out with the bathwater" Look at the longer term chart..self explanatory. Key levels..650 if broken then expect test of longer term uptrend at 550.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

BAIL OUT? Or time to BALE out?

After much arm bending and the scariness of last Mondays 700 point fall in the DOW, the US govt got their way!! (We knew they would) - the markets rallied ahead of the "expected" then fell on the news - the classic buy the rumour sell the news....

NOW WHAT?? doesn't REALLY solve anything fundamentally...the real problem is housing and falling prices...something everybody will just have to work through....however what does it mean for the markets?

MY own HO; we are close to a short term bottom..(1-2 weeks away)...then election fever will kick in, a bit of optimism following the initial negative reaction.

another few big down days will have me looking for longs in the markets..will post charts later

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