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Mood!

Thursday, November 27, 2008

THANKS ! giving




WOW what a rally.....

Still seems a bear rally...very convenient before Thanksgiving...definitely for the govt better than falling before Thanksgiving. The US markets are given a lot of air time in USA so psychologically a big rally ahead of one of the MOST important shopping days in the calendar will definitely give some boost of confidence...how much? Probably not significant...WHO will be borrowing more money??

The best idea so far is from McHugh (www.technicalindicatorindex.com) rebate all taxes paid in last 10 years. This would give the "man on the street" MONEY in his pocket. Raise consumption taxes (VAT, IVA, sales tax etc), and let people DECIDE what to do with their money. Giving BILLIONS to banks will not solve anything...apart form keeping them in the manner they are accustomed to! By giving money to the BASE of the PYRAMID..it will pave a way for a more sustained recovery. NO MORE BAIL OUTS for badly managed companies...let them FAIL...let small to mid size companies take their place..in the future these will be the large companies of today...

The governments can then recoup some on consumption taxes (NOT income), and as the economy improves, so will tax revenues from corporations.

to the chart above

Dow testing the lower channel it broke down out of...so....if we break back in to the channel it may have been a FALSE break lower..and we may stay in channel ( probably need to get above 8930 )...upper line of channel is 10053 so we may get trading range of 8800-10100 for a while..

9600-9800 is RESISTANCE..

IF we break down from here ...WATCH OUT BELOW...

Look at the banking index chart as well..approaching resistance..if it gets through there may reach descending trendline....IF

Thursday, November 20, 2008

The final capitulation

Well we got the break in the DOW below 8k, very quickly to 7500...personally would be looking to buy something soon for the quick pop...

7k? Oil also down to interesting levels.... GOLD steady...

Looks like maybe one more BIG panic day down or two ..and then we rally...

HOWEVER... the more the govts feel obliged to intervene the lower we may go and the pops will be not so large!

Keep eye on dollar..one more move up vs other currencies...and then that may be it..will look to GBP near 1.40...

euro yen near 95-100

euro usd - 1.19

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Still the same picture...


Have a look at DOW chart..still the same picture. Some newsletters I read are slowly turning bullish - SHORT term only....but the picture seems to say we are just consolidating the recent sharp down move. Support at 8000 in DOW...is everybody bottom picking there? If so a move below that level decisively will put the targets mentioned in previous post in sight!

PPT? are they holding back the tide? Will the dam finally burst? Will the US carmakers get a bail out? If so - WHAT FOR? As with AIG, some banks, and in general badly run companies, they should be allowed to FAIL - free market forces. They are dinosaurs, make way for the small mammals !!

I am still waiting for the final capitulation....maybe it will be after one more rally to top of trend channel (see graph)...only a clear break above 9800 on good volume will change the picture medium term... let's get it over with SOONER rather than later!!

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Beware full Moon! November 13th...

Full moon Thursday 13th Nov...

full moon has known effects on behaviour of lots of animals (include humans in that category!)

Could be we get the panic day soon..the way the market is behaving today...(wednesday 12th) no mercy for "buyers", will they capitulate soon? And at what level....

7200-7600 DOW....best case 5600 worst case..

Gold and oil also being pulled lower..where will OIL be in 3 -5 years? Will Asia (China, India etc etc) stop wanting cars? Will we all be on electric cars? OIL will be a buy soon, however psychology is ruling the markets - be careful short term...

OR...

Will the full moon initiate full blown lunacy ? A HUGE rally from these levels? Who knows ? Trade what you see...

Friday, November 7, 2008

DAX "AFTER"

This is the "after" view ("before" is in previous post) Now what? Is this a correction of the recent rally ? OR will we head to new lows....difficult decisions...middle of the range....if short then stop would have to be above recent high, if long stop below the OCT lows...BIG range HIGH risk. PERSONALLY - MHO only !! I feel a test and possible break of October lows is on the cards...before we get the TRADEABLE rally (ie 3-4 months) and possibly 25-30 % up move...when will we get to the lows? over next 2 weeks...so whilst bearish for the short term will be looking at BUYS if we get the break of OCT lows. Other things I am looking at - GOLD a move to below 700 would have me put on buying boots again, and also as a LONG term play - OIL near 50 USD, I would start accumulating

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