Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

DAX and FTSE bottomed, and breaking higher?

The DAX and FTSE look to have bottomed and now heading up.

Maybe it is just an extended correction of the move down, but also the €/$ has found support despite the NEGATIVE news with Spain, Greece and Europe generally..
IF they maintain bullish trend ...BUY corrections!!

DAX needs to break above 6430
DAX retraced close to 68 % (Fibonacci) of the rally from Oct 11

FTSE daily

Looks stronger technically than DAX as it has broken above previous high at 5585
FTSE also looks like a double bottom formed.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012


Weekly chart

starting to show signs of positive divergence, ideally a test of recent lows to reinforce the signal.
Shorts still at LARGE!

Daily chart

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

DAX, rally finally arrived..

Well the DAX was just 100 points away from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 5815, and has rallied..

BUT is it THE rally?
Pluses, the rally in EURUSD, rally in Gold and Silver, miners and commodities.

Negatives, sharp move up is characteristic of bear rallies (sellers step away, and shorts cover at any price),

6230 seems a key level to get over..before a corrective rally can be thrown out of the window.

Weekly chart
still in down trend.
a break above descending trend lines will be sign that down trend finished

DAILY chart

Shows market was oversold.
Resistance at 200 dma
Resistance at descending trendlines

so expect another 100+ points up for a reasonable short entry

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

DAX question answered!

The DAX has now reached the FLAG target outlined in this prior post and today seems to be "eager" to head to the Head and shoulder targets at 5875/5850.  It would not be surprising to see overshoot especially the US markets open weaker today.

Interestingly Spain's IBEX has outperformed the last couple of days; finishing in positive territory whilst Germany's DAX and the US's DOW finished very weak.  The FTSE also showed relative strength on Friday but the market has been closed Monday and Tuesday (GSTQ!!) so will be interesting to see the open tomorrow.

Also interesting is SENTIMENT.  Now we are trading 10%+ lower from the recent highs, everybody wants to SELL!!  As usual the "crowd" will be right for a short time, and then get KILLED. It seems that we may be between "ENOUGH is enough, I'm selling and will never touch stocks again" and "See what did I tell you?"

Still looking to buy at the lower levels..accumulate position.

DAX 3 hr chart

Monday, June 4, 2012

Gold ready to shine>

When the media start Gold bashing it is usually a sign of a turn in fortunes.  Gold has been in a down trend since it;s highs earlier this year and in a sideways consolidation since it's all time high in Sept 2011.

It looks like it is breaking out of it's down trend; the real test will b a break above the descending line C, 1710 and then a break of 1800 would target new HIGHS.

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