Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Friday, October 18, 2019

Chop, Chop

The markets are playing with US!

Breakouts to the upside - no follow-through

Breakouts to the downside - no follow-through

WEARING market participants out

Basically, the bus is slowly being emptied -
BOTH buses!

if you can trade a bear move and get it RIGHT - it can be exhilarating  - Think rollercoaster ride

Bull moves - slow and steady (generally) not as much adrenalin rush

What does this look like on a chart?

Nasdaq weekly
clear rising wedge (usually a bearish formation, although to really clear the bus, typically it will rally above the line  (shorts will run for cover and bulls will load up), before a sharp reversal.

Conversely - if it breaks down, similarly it will fall sharply and then rally to re-test the break - catching many market participants out

With ALGO trading dominating the current market,  the moves will be exaggerated
Step back to see the TREES!

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Still playing the markets

TRUMP changes mind

"Trump had said previously he would not be satisfied with a partial deal to resolve his effort to change China’s trade, intellectual property and industrial policy practices, which he argues cost millions of U.S. jobs. On Friday he said he had decided that a phased approach was appropriate."

So it looks like the back and forth of "deal or no deal" will be an ongoing theme for months and possibly years to come.

The markets were euphoric about the "latest deal" though the details were not released until after the market close on Friday - 

So some scepticism to come for next week?

Charts :
easy money and trade optimism are pushing indices to new highs, bell-weather stock  AAPL, also reached a new high on Friday.

DOW daily
Friday left what could be a shooting star (www.investopedia.com)
Warning that uptrend may fail..

The key to this will be the price action on Monday.

Thursday, October 10, 2019

China v USA v Europe

Which one is which?

The world order is changing - and we are witnessing a LONG TERM shift in power from West to East which could last decades !

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Dow Industrials

still in the throes of a trade war dominated environment - but longer-term NEWS doesn't matter?

Still looks like an ED; In August, it broke the lower uptrend line; and then consolidated for the month, then breaking higher - HOWEVER the rally failed at 27500 (possible DOUBLE TOP?)

Now threatening to test the lower trend line of the ED (wedge).

If the ED has completed - expect a breakdown of the lower trend line - followed by a more prolonged bear move - (correction of 2016 brally  or even the 2008 rally) 

If it HASN'T completed; expect a bounce and a rally to new highs (throw-over), and THEN a rapid retrace of the ED and breakdown as above.

If this is just a consolidation, a sustained break above the top of the wedge (ED) and then more prolonged bull move (pushed by lower rates, China trade deal)

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

NASDAQ daily

So longer-term the charts look like a topping pattern is in progress -click here for NDX LONG term - previous post

Looking at the daily chart - looks like what could be called and ENDING DIAGONAL in progress.

IDEALLY - a new high (overthrow of upper trend line) and then a sharp fall

DAILY closer up
can see the bounces off the lower rising trend line 
clear wedge forming

1 If it breaks down from here - there could be a sharp move down 
2 if it rallies - could test the upper trend line and break temporarily higher..

On the 2 hour chart - we can see we the level closer;  a break down below the trend line and likely quick fall and possibly a larger fall to finally correct the rally from 2008

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