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Mood!

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

FTSE breaking out !

FTSE daily

Breaking above declining resistance
next key level if we stay up 6100
a break above there can open up test of highs at 6800 ..see weekly chart below




FTSE weekly

expect some pause at around 6100 level
may even be a SHORT level..but BEWARE a push through 6100 especially if strong.


Tuesday, December 18, 2012

EURUSD on track for target

EURUSD

Looks to be on track for target
maybe as early as 1st week of Jan..if it can break above 1.32 soon


APPLE

AAPL

Daily chart, seems to be setting up POSITIVE divergence (price makes new low, but RSI does not).

Sentiment: seems nobody likes AAPL at 500 !! Yet at 700 EVERYONE wants to BUY.

Some sayings which could be applied to AAPL now.

BUY in the red , SELL in the blue, ie Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.

Warren Buffet " Be fearful when others are greedy, Be GREEDY when others are fearful"



Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Buy or sell? DAX, FTSE. DOW, NDX

Follow up on previous post  with FTSE DOW and NDX thrown in for good measure
Long? tighten stops
Short? stops are close by, and be ready to reverse on confirmed break higher...

Markets are poised for a break out higher..but will it be after another shake out??
Where's the crystal ball?

Monthly charts for LONG term investors

DAX

OK ! We may be about to break resistance and head to the highs around 8,000 BUT each time we have entered the highlighted area there has been a severe setback for the DOW.  Will history repeat itself ? (or at least rhyme?)


FTSE

Also approaching a resistance band may be quite tough getting through. If it does, then can probability increases for a min test of the highs at 7,000



DOW

Clear up trend.   A break above recent highs should see test of all time high at 14k.  



NDX

Monthly shows clear up trend with recent weakness testing support and rallying.  a rally should go to new highs above 3,000.
Very dependent on AAPL

AAPL DAILY chart


Oversold rally from around 505 level.  Another sell off almost testing the lows.  watch for
either a new low and rally, with RSI diverging (ie no new low in RSI)
or a move from here above 558 for signs that bottom is in.



Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Groundhog Day !! DAX

From  October 17th post..

"bumping against resistance, 7440.7480 key levels.  A break above that opens way for much higher prices."

Well here we are again...


"Possible that we rally and fail at 7500, that would make for a more bearish case, but we would need to see a break below key levels below 7170.

Likelihood is a rally to test 7500 and then a retrace; BUY the dip (If nimble enough trade the short side but beware of sustained move higher)"

We moved a lot lower than expected touching 6950, so the market is shaking out longs and shorts, and has effectively stayed in a range with extremes 7470 and 6950.

NOW we are near 7500 again.  Will THIS time be different?

European markets are near highs
US markets are still between 4.5 and 7 % off highs.
EURO has been strong
Precious metals weak



DAX

Either

1. broken out of bull flag, in which case a "test" of the red line is probable before heading higher.  The higher we go without a correction, the probability increase that we see a correction of at least 3 %, before heading higher.



OR

2. The DAX is forming a right angle broadening TOP 
from Edwards and Magee " Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"
"..Right Angled Broadening formations carry bearish implications, regardless of which side is horizontal.."
".. A horizontal side indicates either accumulation or distribution at a fixed price, depending of course on which side is horizontal. And it follows, logically, that any decisive break through the horizontal side has immediate forceful significance. Thus if a Broadening price pattern with a flat top boundary develops after a good advance, and if prices finally burst through that top line on high volume and close above it to a conclusive extent (roughly 3%), then it is safe to assume that the preceding uptrend will be resumed and carried on for a worthwhile move.  This does happen, although it is rare.  The odds favour the opposite; i.e., the eventual victory of the forces of distribution which created the horizontal top and a break away into an extensive decline"


So a break above 7500 MUST 
be on HIGH volume
preferably a decisive close above that (suggested 3%)


Wednesday, October 31, 2012

DAX still consolidating

The DAX despite the BEARISH sentiment for the last 6 weeks, has only fallen at most 4% from the recent high, and actually has NOT broken support, effectively rangebound between 7140 and 7460.

Looking at the RSI and MACD the break out over DAILY resistance resulted in the market being overbought.  Recent action has relieved those conditions and with quite high bearish retail sentiment, we could see a run to new highs if the market moves higher and breaks out over 7460.

Fly in the bullish ointment : US elections next week
Obviously a break below 7140 increases chances that recent action is a TOPPING pattern

DAX daily



Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Markets at crucial levels

DAX

bumping against resistance, 7440.7480 key levels.  A break above that opens way for much higher prices.
Pluses for the rally scenario
1. For the last 3.5 weeks the market has been consolidating the gains since breaking through key resistance at 7170, no real selling BUT the sentiment at these levels turned decidedly bearish, with many looking for a top.
2. The market is not overbought
3. Daily indicators in process of turning up

Possible that we rally and fail at 7500, that would make for a more bearish case, but we would need to see a break below key levels below 7170.

Likelihood is a rally to test 7500 and then a retrace; BUY the dip (If nimble enough trade the short side but beware of sustained move higher)



FTSE
similar to DAX
First chart shows declining trend line resistance 2007, 2011, 2012 tops
second chart shows daily closer up.



EURUSD
on the weekly chart we may have completed a bull flag, in which case measured target is around 1.40 !


AAPL
major market mover, may have bottomed at 623.  If not possible test lower at 600 or at the 200 dma currently 580





Friday, October 5, 2012

AAPL

Apple daily chart

Is everybody getting bearish on AAPL?

The chart shows we HAD negative divergence on the new high, but recent price action seems to have alleviated overbought conditions. Support @ 650 which was the previous resistance.  Maybe a head and shoulders? But volume profile doesn't look right for an H&S.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

DAX various time frames

The DAX is at RESISTANCE and many BEARS are emerging, but until certain levels get broken it is still in a BULL trend and targeting much higher levels.
Supportive of this is stronger Euro, strong US markets and Central Banks across the globe willing to provide liquidity.
There seems to be a lot of scepticism to this rally so 


DAX monthly

 No change from prior post.  Hit trendline resistance and pulled back. RSI not overbought. Maybe a bit more consolidation to be done, but better to look at smaller time frames for more clues.


DAX weekly

RSI entered overbought and is now pulling back, but so far no dramatic move to downside bodes well for bulls.  A break back below 7105 would be medium term bearish.  Until then probability is market will move higher.



DAX daily

Shows clearly defined trend channel, at present sitting on short term support but GREY area is strong support 7160. Possible to have a "scary" drop to that level, but BULL case would remain intact.


DAX 3 hours

Shows the up trend channel, with what  could be a BULL flag tracing out with current action.  Also shows an earlier bull flag. 


DAX 30 mins (for shorter term trades)

Here the uptrend support line can be seen.  Also it has attempted to break down at least 3 times, so short term if it breaks may get move lower to 7200/.7180 level.  Be aware.  However the formation could also be an ascending triangle which if broken to the upside around 7380 would give a measured target of 7540










Wednesday, September 19, 2012

EURUSD long term chart

Monthly chart

So far the rally off the recent low doesn't "look" complete.  Not to say we don't have a couple of red candles, nothing goes up in a straight line, BUT the declining trend line resistance seems a reasonable HIGH target, (1.40) or lower target 1.34


Monday, September 17, 2012

Short term overbought, Long term still UP

The charts below are pretty self explanatory.
Short term DAX has gapped up, and has a tendency to fill the gaps.  So a fall to around 7300 may be on the cards, HOWEVER if the market stays above here, and works off the overbought condition, then it may launch higher, attacking resistance at 7450/7500.  

Range 7266 -7470 for a few days.

BUY the dips! 
The Weekly and Monthly charts show the declining resistance.

IF we get a sustained break out, DAX could see as high as the ALL TIME HIGHS @ 8100 (10 % higher from current levels)

DAX 2 hr chart


 DAX daily



DAX weekly



DAX monthly





Saturday, September 15, 2012

Spanish housing market.

As an aside from following markets.

Spain's housing market is dis-jointed and haphazard.

Sign up and get the Central Government to act NOW!

Click on link below:

Petition for a transparent process for buying and selling in Spain.


The Central Government, Regional and local governments have turned a blind eye for 20-30 years while the "going was good" allowing people to buy homes that were not properly registered, with collusion of lawyers and notaries, BECAUSE they were all making MONEY, through taxes and commissions.

NOW that it has all gone pear shaped they want to penalise those homeowners who bout property in good faith by imposing fines, and even demolishing their homes.

WHO should really be paying for this??  Lawyers, corrupt politicians and corrupt local governments.


Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Summer ended..

Click prices for links to prior posts

Copper now at 371 
DAX 7350
FTSE 5800
Gold 1740
Silver 33.6


Where now?
DAX weekly

DAX approaching strong overhead and downtrend resistance.  Could be we get a brief push above, before a correction sets in.  However unless the trend changes that will be all it is .. a correction.



FTSE weekly

Also approaching resistance

Needs to break and hold above 5810, for test of 5870/5890
Formidable resistance around 5900.

IF the market can break higher obvious target is 6000




DAX/FTSE spread chart

When there is an uptrend can see that DAX outperforms FTSE.

Reasons? 
1, FTSE is quite heavily weighted with defensive stocks
2, DAX has only 30 stocks compared to FTSE 100, and many are cyclical risk on stocks.

However sometimes the spread widens too much.  For a relatively risk free trade sell DAX buy FTSE at these levels, possibly 200points, before uptrend resumes

When a prolonged market down turn occurs the tables are turned with the FTSE outperforming the DAX, in which case a spread trade can be held for longer



Friday, August 17, 2012

Copper

Copper looks ready to have a big move
COT data suggests UP

chart could go either way ..obviously BUT looks to be forming a base..so giving it 80% chance of upside break.




Crude oil almost reached it's target as per previous post

Monday, July 16, 2012

Crude oil

Crude Oil seems to have found a short term bottom and looks set to rise substantially as do most commodities

Bull flag target 96 ..but oil tends to overshoot on upside and downside, so more is possible.


Friday, July 13, 2012

GOLD ..follow up

Looking at the daily chart..

Lots of support at 1525, so only a significant close BELOW that level would turn the chart bearish..
Many  looking at 1540 level as key, so a break there MAY see quick sell..but 1525 looks stronger.
If we break higher out of the large wedge..eventual target would be close to 2000 USD

IF we break 1525 where could it go?  
Previous resistance was 1438 in 2011 and once it broke there 1476 was support on the pullback, so a range of 1438 to 1476 could be possible


Wednesday, July 11, 2012

GOLD and SILVER

A lot of bearish thoughts out there..so sentiment is pretty negative

Weekly charts for both show that the BULL side may prevail, though with the sentiment so negative it may be that we get a quick fall and even quicker reversal just to mess with the BEARS!

GOLD weekly

Action look similar to 2008 after it made a high then, ie corrective so a plus for the bulls.
The RSI is low
MACD looks like it wants to turn up.



SILVER weekly

The bearish argument rests on the large DESCENDING TRIANGLE, which a majority of time breaks down ie a bearish formation.
However it can also be viewed as a CONTINUATION pattern, ie the trend that was in place before the appearance of the triangle will re-assert itself..in this case UP.

This chart makes me think we will have a quick fall, and then the reversal higher.




Tuesday, June 19, 2012

DAX and FTSE bottomed, and breaking higher?

The DAX and FTSE look to have bottomed and now heading up.

Maybe it is just an extended correction of the move down, but also the €/$ has found support despite the NEGATIVE news with Spain, Greece and Europe generally..
IF they maintain bullish trend ...BUY corrections!!


DAX needs to break above 6430
DAX retraced close to 68 % (Fibonacci) of the rally from Oct 11




FTSE daily

Looks stronger technically than DAX as it has broken above previous high at 5585
FTSE also looks like a double bottom formed.



Tuesday, June 12, 2012

EURUSD LONG?

Weekly chart

starting to show signs of positive divergence, ideally a test of recent lows to reinforce the signal.
Shorts still at LARGE!






Daily chart



Wednesday, June 6, 2012

DAX, rally finally arrived..

Well the DAX was just 100 points away from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 5815, and has rallied..

BUT is it THE rally?
Pluses, the rally in EURUSD, rally in Gold and Silver, miners and commodities.

Negatives, sharp move up is characteristic of bear rallies (sellers step away, and shorts cover at any price),


6230 seems a key level to get over..before a corrective rally can be thrown out of the window.

Weekly chart
still in down trend.
a break above descending trend lines will be sign that down trend finished




DAILY chart

Shows market was oversold.
Resistance at 200 dma
Resistance at descending trendlines

so expect another 100+ points up for a reasonable short entry



Tuesday, June 5, 2012

DAX question answered!

The DAX has now reached the FLAG target outlined in this prior post and today seems to be "eager" to head to the Head and shoulder targets at 5875/5850.  It would not be surprising to see overshoot especially the US markets open weaker today.

Interestingly Spain's IBEX has outperformed the last couple of days; finishing in positive territory whilst Germany's DAX and the US's DOW finished very weak.  The FTSE also showed relative strength on Friday but the market has been closed Monday and Tuesday (GSTQ!!) so will be interesting to see the open tomorrow.

Also interesting is SENTIMENT.  Now we are trading 10%+ lower from the recent highs, everybody wants to SELL!!  As usual the "crowd" will be right for a short time, and then get KILLED. It seems that we may be between "ENOUGH is enough, I'm selling and will never touch stocks again" and "See what did I tell you?"






Still looking to buy at the lower levels..accumulate position.

DAX 3 hr chart





Monday, June 4, 2012

Gold ready to shine>

When the media start Gold bashing it is usually a sign of a turn in fortunes.  Gold has been in a down trend since it;s highs earlier this year and in a sideways consolidation since it's all time high in Sept 2011.

It looks like it is breaking out of it's down trend; the real test will b a break above the descending line C, 1710 and then a break of 1800 would target new HIGHS.





Thursday, May 31, 2012

CABLE

Weekly chart

Still in large triangle
approaching lower boundary
1.53 BUY level  (stop close by)


Daily chart


Daily in the MEGAPHONE formation
Failed break out
expect a test of lower boundary and possible fake out on downside
successful test for LONG trade


DAX will FLAG and /or H&S targets be met?

DAX 3 hr charts

On 15/5 DAX broke down through support at 6420, which could also be construed as the neckline of a Head and Shoulders formation with a target near 5850.

Since May 16th DAX has been range bound 6220 to 6430.

Which way will it break?

Scenario 1 FLAG target at 6035
Scenario 2 Head and shoulders target at 5850
Scenario 3  market rallies from the consolidation, invalidating both of the above.


Rangebound action doesn't favour Head and shoulders normally more impulsive once the neckline is broken and retested.











Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Crude oil

Crude daily

85 dollar target? From breakdown of TRIANGLE

Major support at 80





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