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Mood!

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

DAX still consolidating

The DAX despite the BEARISH sentiment for the last 6 weeks, has only fallen at most 4% from the recent high, and actually has NOT broken support, effectively rangebound between 7140 and 7460.

Looking at the RSI and MACD the break out over DAILY resistance resulted in the market being overbought.  Recent action has relieved those conditions and with quite high bearish retail sentiment, we could see a run to new highs if the market moves higher and breaks out over 7460.

Fly in the bullish ointment : US elections next week
Obviously a break below 7140 increases chances that recent action is a TOPPING pattern

DAX daily



Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Markets at crucial levels

DAX

bumping against resistance, 7440.7480 key levels.  A break above that opens way for much higher prices.
Pluses for the rally scenario
1. For the last 3.5 weeks the market has been consolidating the gains since breaking through key resistance at 7170, no real selling BUT the sentiment at these levels turned decidedly bearish, with many looking for a top.
2. The market is not overbought
3. Daily indicators in process of turning up

Possible that we rally and fail at 7500, that would make for a more bearish case, but we would need to see a break below key levels below 7170.

Likelihood is a rally to test 7500 and then a retrace; BUY the dip (If nimble enough trade the short side but beware of sustained move higher)



FTSE
similar to DAX
First chart shows declining trend line resistance 2007, 2011, 2012 tops
second chart shows daily closer up.



EURUSD
on the weekly chart we may have completed a bull flag, in which case measured target is around 1.40 !


AAPL
major market mover, may have bottomed at 623.  If not possible test lower at 600 or at the 200 dma currently 580





Friday, October 5, 2012

AAPL

Apple daily chart

Is everybody getting bearish on AAPL?

The chart shows we HAD negative divergence on the new high, but recent price action seems to have alleviated overbought conditions. Support @ 650 which was the previous resistance.  Maybe a head and shoulders? But volume profile doesn't look right for an H&S.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

DAX various time frames

The DAX is at RESISTANCE and many BEARS are emerging, but until certain levels get broken it is still in a BULL trend and targeting much higher levels.
Supportive of this is stronger Euro, strong US markets and Central Banks across the globe willing to provide liquidity.
There seems to be a lot of scepticism to this rally so 


DAX monthly

 No change from prior post.  Hit trendline resistance and pulled back. RSI not overbought. Maybe a bit more consolidation to be done, but better to look at smaller time frames for more clues.


DAX weekly

RSI entered overbought and is now pulling back, but so far no dramatic move to downside bodes well for bulls.  A break back below 7105 would be medium term bearish.  Until then probability is market will move higher.



DAX daily

Shows clearly defined trend channel, at present sitting on short term support but GREY area is strong support 7160. Possible to have a "scary" drop to that level, but BULL case would remain intact.


DAX 3 hours

Shows the up trend channel, with what  could be a BULL flag tracing out with current action.  Also shows an earlier bull flag. 


DAX 30 mins (for shorter term trades)

Here the uptrend support line can be seen.  Also it has attempted to break down at least 3 times, so short term if it breaks may get move lower to 7200/.7180 level.  Be aware.  However the formation could also be an ascending triangle which if broken to the upside around 7380 would give a measured target of 7540










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