Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Wednesday, January 21, 2009

USD JPY target

Just a reminder of a USD/JPY chart I posted on Dec 3rd

Yesterday's late rally..and other things

Just remembered the chart of USD/JPY..we are at 87.91...
the target from the flag is 85...keep eye on this as may be a turning point...

USD weakness vs JPY has been positively correlated..ie weak USD weak market !!

Will be in France next week skiing..Samoens..

back Feb 1st!

Monday, January 19, 2009

Euro USD chart

Quick look at the EURO vs $...

Looks like at critical junction...

We had the break out at 1.3058 in DEC, now retesting that level..will it hold? Also descending trendline..a break above that should bring us a new rally leg... Trading below 1.30 wil lbring us back into the range we had November to December

If we get a test of 1.3058 and hold ..I will go long there, and also on a good break of the dotted trendline.

A rally in euro would also tie in with a rally in equities...targeting the underside of the wedges (9600 DOW, 4400 FTSE, 4900 DAX).

Saturday, January 17, 2009


It's the season for planting! About 400 onions, broad beans, caulis, broccoli, mange tout, cabbages already in the ground...

garlic, butter nut squash to go in next week...

sore back..now I know why the old guys from Alhaurin walk around slowly and hunched!

US holiday on Monday...so more work in the garden..

chicken coop is on the list this year....!

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Crude oil longer term

Copy and paste link below for interesting thoughts on crude


Another fall to a new low might be needed to end this dramatic move down...while oil is falling can't see any rally in equities..

Short term play to upside if this happens..key level to watch 30 usd; significantly below that 17 usd...

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

DOW possible path for the move down?

chart shows possible down move action. remember NOTHING goes down in a straight line!! Ideally with wedges should get a retest of the bottom of the wedge..which would be a GREAT short opportunity...(the stop would be as shown...so RR would be good). If nimble a long position once this 1st wave down has finished...or hedge shorts...

keep eye on Euro weakness (weak euro = weak equities - at least for last 6 months!) Also Crude oil no rally here yet ...are we going to test 18???? If so does not bode well for equities...

will look at crude long term chart next post

More DAX

shorter time frame chart...

self explanatory (more or less)..anyway ties in with 3500 target mentioned in previous post.

posted on trade2win.com
Looks like we have broken wedge pattern so theoretical downside target 3510..obviously NOT in a straight line...so if not already short I personally would wait for next rally, unless you can play the momentum (more risky) and short it here (maybe drill down to smaller time frame and see resistance support levels for stops and intermediate targets. Quite often we get a retest of the wedge...but that would be a longer term move..

Tuesday, January 13, 2009


self explanatory chart...

if we are in next move down the target should be Nov lows first, and then 3500 which is a 78.6 % retrace of move up from 2003..:)

If so strategy is to sell any strong rallies...LONG positions ONLY for the nimble!!

Monday, January 12, 2009

New Year !!.....same old market...

2009 has arrived and the markets are still in the same old patterns...today we may be on verge of a breakdown...if so how far will we go???

DOW chart: looks like a break down through the wedge will see 8350 first, then a test of the Nov lows at 7450....a significant break through here (3% plus) means we could get as low as 5900 see WEEKLY chart.

OR we get a FALSE BREAK of November lows, followed by a longer term INTERMEDIATE rally

anyway JURY still OUT

4th Quarter earnings season starts this week..MAY give some clue to the direction we will take.

ALSO : OIL, EURO have been weak (and in the past year have been positively correlated with the equity markets).

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