Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Thursday, May 31, 2012


Weekly chart

Still in large triangle
approaching lower boundary
1.53 BUY level  (stop close by)

Daily chart

Daily in the MEGAPHONE formation
Failed break out
expect a test of lower boundary and possible fake out on downside
successful test for LONG trade

DAX will FLAG and /or H&S targets be met?

DAX 3 hr charts

On 15/5 DAX broke down through support at 6420, which could also be construed as the neckline of a Head and Shoulders formation with a target near 5850.

Since May 16th DAX has been range bound 6220 to 6430.

Which way will it break?

Scenario 1 FLAG target at 6035
Scenario 2 Head and shoulders target at 5850
Scenario 3  market rallies from the consolidation, invalidating both of the above.

Rangebound action doesn't favour Head and shoulders normally more impulsive once the neckline is broken and retested.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Crude oil

Crude daily

85 dollar target? From breakdown of TRIANGLE

Major support at 80

IBEX capitulation selling starting?

Is the selling today the start of the capitulation?

May be a BUY soon..
IBEX down 2.62 % vs DAX up 0.7%

quick look at charts Monthly weekly and daily

Key level on downside 5280 Monthly Support

and then 3910/4000


starting to go oversold

Positive divergence didn't do much for the price.  Indicators which were oversold now reset so another leg down possible to oversold again.  Maybe a positive divergence on bigger time frame setting up..


Thermometer for the global economy


Approaching the lower risk "BUY ZONE"

Speculative buy at the trendline support

Daily chart 

Approaching oversold on RSI
Trendline support

BUY on weakness

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

EURO approaching support

The EURO  (vs USD) is approaching support
sentiment is VERY negative
so conditions are ripe for a surprise to the UPSIDE..

EURO daily approaching head and shoulders target at 1.2520

shows support.

¿Donde va el IBEX 35? Whither the IBEX 35?

IBEX mensual

Soporte roto      (support broken)
todavia no sobre vendido  (not oversold yet)
Próximo soporte 5100 !!!  (Next MAJOR support 5100)

IBEX semanal
Ha roto soporte @ 6600

Support broken at 6600

IBEX diario

A corto plazo empezando a formar divergencia positiva..puede que haya una subida por compra de posiciones vendidos a corto.

Short term beginning to show positive divergence between price and RSi, may lead to a SHARP short covering rally before resuming the down trend..
SHOULD coincide with rally in the major markets

DAX and FTSE update

Yesterday's rally was a bear rally.

strong, low volume, and serves to:

a. stop out the shorts
b. suck in the longs.


recently has been holding up pretty well, but not out of the BEAR woods YET..
A test of the lows at 6225 and a hold could be a nice BUY (tight stop)

IF it breaks the lows then we could see a PANIC move down to 6k or 5870
Nimble trading necessary as if it approaches the lower levels would be good LONG opp


Similar to the DAX but with a clearer down move from the highs
Blew past the FLAG target (interesting that yesterday's rally went TO THE FLAG target)

5260 recent low WATCH this level !!
below targets:

5180 is the H&S target
5020 is KEY support
and below 4850

Unlikely to get to the lowest target, and at 5180 flattening out the shorts!
Below that look for longs

Ideas update AUDUSD

Aussie dollar...

Previous chart posted on May 8th 2012 full post here

Current chart
Rapidly approaching flag target at 9680
May overshoot a little
looking at longs from here

Sentiment seems very negative and conversely very positive for dollar

Friday, May 18, 2012


DAX still on a sell after breaking 6400...
If nimble can trade it from long side BUT TREND is DOWN...beware!

STOP for shorts  6450

Could rally to test 6400 again..(dependent on performance of US mkts)

DAX daily

DAX 30 mins

The trend is down , interesting that each retracement is testing the 61.8 % fib retrace
So has room to go to 6370 (if it carries on following the pattern)

Wednesday, May 16, 2012


Sometimes it's good to "step back" and look at the LONGER term charts..MONTHLY.

All pretty self explanatory.
Breaking multi month up trends
In all 3 RSI has not reached the overbought levels seen in previous TOPS - more rally to come, or a sign that the rally is weaker then it looks?

DAX monthly



DAX finally breaks 6400

The DAX finally broke 6400 today..just need acceleration to the downside form here, though it is possible it may have a re-test of that level (Shake out)

If 6300 breaks, then looking at 6035 as possible target and extreme at 5875 as outlined in previous post here

GOLD at support

Sentiment seems very BEARISH for GOLD and GOLD stocks..

The best time to buy!

Gold the metal is approaching support as shown in the daily chart.

NEM Newmont mining weekly chart

Approaching 61.8 % Fib retrace
40 % down from it's high at 72

FTSE approaching flag target

The FTSE is approaching the flag target outlined here

Here is the updated DAILY CHART

If selling accelerates the Head and Shoulders target is more likely at 5200

And just in case if the selling is CRASH like 5000 will be key...

Thursday, May 10, 2012

FTSE update

Targets for drop remain the same..as pointed out in this post

Looking at the 2 hr chart, can see that market is short term oversold..
Would look to sell in the "zone" (Area between previous support and resistance)  5573 to 5621
200 dma is at 5558 so may not get as high as the "zone"

FTSE 2 hr


Wednesday, May 9, 2012

FTSE (and DAX)

So with recent market action, especially in the FTSE, my previous post  "FTSE vs DAX conundrum" seems to have answered itself.

As wave 4's cannot enter wave 1 price action, then it looks like 5 waves completed up on 14th March and we are now in
an A-B-C correction (currently in C down)

OR (more bearish)
a new move down and we are in a wave 3

IF ABC then once complete the BULL run should resume and we see new highs...
IF new move down, once 3 completes we should see a corrective move up then NEW LOWS.



Euro decided?

Looks like the EURUSD has decided which way it's going and for NOW that seems to be down.

Broken support at 1.30/1.2960
Target 1.2510

Close stop @ 1.30 (tight) or 1.3055 (looser)

Daily chart (yesterday's close)

Tuesday, May 8, 2012


Aussie dollar (v USD) broke the flag...and looks to be headed medium term to .9860..NOTHING goes DOWN (Or UP) in a straight line..sell strength take profits on the sharp dips...BE NIMBLE!!

DAX 3 hr

DAX plunged yesterday morning and rallied 20 points during the day..so was that it?
Using strength to sell into..still targeting  min 6035 previous post here
The rally was at obvious support at 6400..

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Weekend work

Sentiment wise the bull rally has been dominant since late 2011, and sentiment seems that EVERYBODY is looking for a pull back to buy again, so my CONTRARIAN thinking cap says the pull back will be DEEPER than people expect to SCARE the BULLS....after a drop of just over 1 % for the DOW, already seems like the BULLS are ALREADY sniffing at the LONG side...

The FTSE and the DAX charts show the possibility of the SCARY fall which would then justify going LONG again in anticipation of  new highs.

After a weak close Friday and possibly the start of short to medium term down trend a look at possible targets:

FTSE daily

Chart shows that 200 dma has been a key level for the last 2 years.  
Friday's action looks like breaking the up trend in force since October 2011

First target 200 dma at 5562
If that fails or bounce is weak, FLAG target is 5390/5400

If it rallies strongly and breaks above flag top NEW HIGHS likely.

DAX daily.

2 bearish formations in play

A. Head and Shoulders (NOT CONFIRMED)  if breaks 6460 level then target is 5875
B.  Flag (Confirmed) targets 6035

Friday, May 4, 2012

DAX end of week look

DAX weekly looks to be close to a critical level; 6470, a break below and the UPTREND will be broken.  This could induce a short (in time) but sharp (in price) sell off which would

a. deflate the bullish sentiment
b. encourage the bearish sentiment.

Keep eye on sentiment , when the bearish side gets too noticeable, be ready to reverse and BUY!

For now sell rallies stop above 6785..or drill down to lower time frame for lower stop levels.

eg 30 min chart

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

AUDUSD daily

After falling from 1.085, recent action looks like consolidation of the move down, or a BEAR FLAG

Possible targets for next leg down (IF bear flag is confirmed)

FTSE vs DAX connundrum

FTSE and DAX look similar but with important differences in terms of Elliott Wave labeling.

FTSE daily

Recent down move LOOKS like a wave 4, BUT according to EW rules wave 4's CANNOT violate Wave 1's price.  So an alternative may be that the move up concluded at 5990 mid March , and now we are either in a Wave 1  down, wave 2 in progress (bull move complete), Wave A down and wave B in progress; which means a wave 3 down (strong) or a Wave C down (also strong).

The DAX is similar BUT the recent downward move has not violated Wave 1 so current move up could be start of Wave 5 up; Is the move up convincing enough? 

So there are 3 scenarios.

1. Bull move from December complete, and now in down trend.
2. Bull move from December complete and now in correction ABC with C down wave to come
3. Correction from highs complete and NOW in a move to NEW HIGHS

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