Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Friday, November 27, 2009

DAX wedgie

Today the Dax has broken that wedge again..2nd time in 2 months..a sign that the trend is weakening even if we don't stay below it.  May just be the long awaited correction of the rally since March *bullish scenario) or the start of a new down leg (the bearish scenario).  A 10% correction probably would be healthy.

Once this leg down finished , probably right to get long..in bullish scenario new highs..in the bearish scenario a wave 2 up which could challenge the highs but not break them..

Thursday, November 26, 2009


Still in up trend and making NEW highs since March..BUT....

the RSI seems to be lagging this move...bearish divergence.. watch 1.5230 level...

DAX 30 mins

4 days of gains GONE in a few hours..now what?  Chart shows we are near support and have bounced from these levels before..IF it fails looks like we target the blue line, which is the trend line of the wedge from March lows...IF THAT one breaks (convincingly) then we finally get our significant correction.. in the bullish case, or a drop to new lows, the bearish case.

USD JPY...target approaching...

Here's a link to a post a while ago ..target for USD JPY form bear flag 85 ish...


here's the latest...

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Arrested for not paying a tip????

Nothing surprises me in the USA any more!!  What next?

College students arrested for not paying tip


USD index weekly

getting near a key level...will it hold..or will we break through and test the  70.80 level??

Blue arrows show previous support and resistance..

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

AUDUSD elliott wave count hourly

Still short and looking to add on a rally to 9225, if this is correct we should get a BIG move down soon ish

Thursday, November 19, 2009

AUDUSD again....weekly chart..

I can see some possible bearish divergence setting up...
todays move looks like this pair is weakening.. BUT still need a break through that up trend line.  HOWEVER the neg divergence is a possible early warning sign, LOOK at what happened in 08..

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

closer look at AUDUSD

Looks like may be turning...
short , stop at .9420.  Looking for a test of main trendline at around .9130 ..

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Another antipodean currency...

The NZDUSD looks to be ahead of the AUDUSD , in the break of the trendline.  Now re-testing that break.
RSI and MACD looking toppy..remember weekly chart so LONG term stuff..

Thursday, November 5, 2009

something to keep an eye on... AUDUSD

AUD USD  WEEKLY CHART Looking a little stretched..but still in uptrend...keep eye on

1. either a break of the trend line

2. or a signs of weakening rally..ie new high but not on RSI... (negative divergence)

3.  a break above horizontal line and USD is clinically dead!!

Wednesday, November 4, 2009


In this rally from March 09 the leading indices have been the NASDAQ (USA) and the DAX (GERMANY)

BOTH of these have broken their rising trends in last few days..KEY now is what happens next...

A.  FALSE BREAK...prices recover enough to "get back" in the uptrend channel

B.  Prices recover and "Test" the underside of the broken trend, and THEN continue fall

C.  NO recovery from here, prices fall until next SUPPORT level

We should know soon enough!!

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Decision time!

With the big move on Friday, many markets are poised at the edge of the precipice...
FTSE 100,NDX100, DAX, DOW,and EURO.

FTSE broke minor uptrend within larger wedge, so possible move down to 4850/ 4800 on cards.  Key will be if when we get there DOES it break larger wedge?

EURO poised for a break of the large WEDGE...not YET broken..

NDX 100  has been the leader in the rally since March, and HAS already broken down through the major WEDGE formation...IMPORTANT keep eye on this...

DAX is poised on the edge of the wedge  leading index in EUROPE..very similar to NDX 100

DOW  has NOT broken the wedge yet...looks poised for a test approx 9500.

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