Quotes

Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius

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Tuesday, December 31, 2019

AAPL parabolic

Apple - bellwether stock - widely owned by individuals and funds, huge index weighting - so all index-linked funds have to be heavily invested - everyone knows it's a "great" company ;)..so what next?
Below is the quarterly chart, with a parabolic rise laid over the top.  "Parabolic up moves are exciting to ride, but there is the almost certain danger that the rocket will run out of fuel, resulting in a rapid collapse of prices. Trying to pick the final top for this kind of move could be hazardous to one's health, but being aware of the potential danger can be useful in managing positions."


Below the AAPL chart is the weekly silver chart which shows a parabolic move in 2011 and the subsequent collapse.  I'm not saying that the top is in AAPL - but care is needed. 





Friday, December 27, 2019

2019 draws to an end - what's the state of play?

OK, 2019 draws to an end - and markets are still in bull mode - now the bull has been running for over 10 years - is it about to run out of energy?

The usual suspects are still pushing -
Low rates - forces investors to seek returns in riskier assets - (equities etc)
Election year in the USA (2020)
China trade - (a deal! - BIG deal?)
Brexit on way to completion? (positive? )
Here's a video of our current PM - showing how "eloquent" he is





Looking at the charts
Starting with a look at the Fear and Greed index overlaid on the Dow Jones Industrial average. (can be found HERE)

At the moment it looks like we are in Extreme greed mode - probably some caution warranted into the New Year -
Below is NDX 100 with same overlay but on the weekly chart



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