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Mood!

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Possible bullish catalyst for year end rally?

Looking at JPM and GS ...

if they can break higher would give impetus to a new move higher...IF they break down, may stop the rally in it's tracks... 

Long with tight stop... possible reverse on a break down.


Sunday, December 13, 2009

Xmas charts..

FTSE

Looks like one more push up to 5670 level possible, especially with the predicted "father christmas" rally. If break the mini channel a move to the lower side of the channel, IF that breaks then rally is over for a while.

DAX

 
 

DAX is forming a clear triangle, a clean break above 5800/5840 targets 6200/6350 (61.8% retrace of fall from highs)  On the downside it looks like 5580/5530 is key, followed by 5250 (50 % retracement level, and resistance/support)


DOW

weekly
 

Weekly chart show we are still near some strong resistance 10500 level, a clean break above this can target 11200, possibly ending this rally.

daily


Daily chart shows a bit more detail..range bound for last few 10200 key on downside, 10500 key on upside.

Friday, November 27, 2009

DAX wedgie

Today the Dax has broken that wedge again..2nd time in 2 months..a sign that the trend is weakening even if we don't stay below it.  May just be the long awaited correction of the rally since March *bullish scenario) or the start of a new down leg (the bearish scenario).  A 10% correction probably would be healthy.


Once this leg down finished , probably right to get long..in bullish scenario new highs..in the bearish scenario a wave 2 up which could challenge the highs but not break them..

Thursday, November 26, 2009

EURO....

Still in up trend and making NEW highs since March..BUT....

the RSI seems to be lagging this move...bearish divergence.. watch 1.5230 level...


DAX 30 mins


4 days of gains GONE in a few hours..now what?  Chart shows we are near support and have bounced from these levels before..IF it fails looks like we target the blue line, which is the trend line of the wedge from March lows...IF THAT one breaks (convincingly) then we finally get our significant correction.. in the bullish case, or a drop to new lows, the bearish case.

USD JPY...target approaching...

Here's a link to a post a while ago ..target for USD JPY form bear flag 85 ish...

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9titM9yn4xw/STZL3-2XrEI/AAAAAAAAAD4/lKCATXqBrHw/s1600-h/USD_JPY+Spot.png

here's the latest...



Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Arrested for not paying a tip????

Nothing surprises me in the USA any more!!  What next?

College students arrested for not paying tip


http://www.pantagraph.com/news/weird-news/article_d6325aa6-d603-11de-9f7e-001cc4c002e0.html

USD index weekly

getting near a key level...will it hold..or will we break through and test the  70.80 level??


Blue arrows show previous support and resistance..

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

AUDUSD elliott wave count hourly

Still short and looking to add on a rally to 9225, if this is correct we should get a BIG move down soon ish

Thursday, November 19, 2009

AUDUSD again....weekly chart..

I can see some possible bearish divergence setting up...
todays move looks like this pair is weakening.. BUT still need a break through that up trend line.  HOWEVER the neg divergence is a possible early warning sign, LOOK at what happened in 08..


Tuesday, November 17, 2009

closer look at AUDUSD





Looks like may be turning...
short , stop at .9420.  Looking for a test of main trendline at around .9130 ..

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Another antipodean currency...


The NZDUSD looks to be ahead of the AUDUSD , in the break of the trendline.  Now re-testing that break.
RSI and MACD looking toppy..remember weekly chart so LONG term stuff..

Thursday, November 5, 2009

something to keep an eye on... AUDUSD

AUD USD  WEEKLY CHART Looking a little stretched..but still in uptrend...keep eye on

1. either a break of the trend line

2. or a signs of weakening rally..ie new high but not on RSI... (negative divergence)

3.  a break above horizontal line and USD is clinically dead!!


Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Leaders

In this rally from March 09 the leading indices have been the NASDAQ (USA) and the DAX (GERMANY)

BOTH of these have broken their rising trends in last few days..KEY now is what happens next...

A.  FALSE BREAK...prices recover enough to "get back" in the uptrend channel

B.  Prices recover and "Test" the underside of the broken trend, and THEN continue fall

C.  NO recovery from here, prices fall until next SUPPORT level

We should know soon enough!!

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Decision time!

With the big move on Friday, many markets are poised at the edge of the precipice...
FTSE 100,NDX100, DAX, DOW,and EURO.

FTSE broke minor uptrend within larger wedge, so possible move down to 4850/ 4800 on cards.  Key will be if when we get there DOES it break larger wedge?


EURO poised for a break of the large WEDGE...not YET broken..


NDX 100  has been the leader in the rally since March, and HAS already broken down through the major WEDGE formation...IMPORTANT keep eye on this...


DAX is poised on the edge of the wedge  leading index in EUROPE..very similar to NDX 100

DOW  has NOT broken the wedge yet...looks poised for a test approx 9500.









Friday, October 30, 2009

Short Dax and FTSE...looking for test of recent lows at min..

short DAX..

Looking for a test of the lows yesterday and even the blue dashed line...if it holds may be LONG entry..

OR a break back above 5625...brings bull trend into play..




FTSE similar...key levels on upside 5200

downside..5000...

Thursday, October 1, 2009

DAX...break or not...


Looks like DAX is soooo close to breaking that wedge (smaller one within the LARGE one from March lows)..if it can get below 5550..then good chance to head to 5350, and maybe 5200 (lowe boundary of larger wedge)

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Friday, September 25, 2009

cable....key level broken

looks like a classic head and shoulders pattern...target 1.52..

And the chart from June..looks like we are entering wave 5 down..so even further downside possible...test the lows? 1.35?
www.iberianviews.blogspot.com/2009/06/cable.html

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Shorts..even at the end of summer!


Looks like several things are topping out (or bottoming - depending on which way you look at it!!!!)

to name a few, cable (looks like it has formed a top), oil, see chart (top), dollar (bottom), euro (still forming top)..

euro strength looks to be the default trade...ie where do we go to?? Pound, dollar, yen???

short on strength ...see dax post earlier..

dow..now...


Here's the dow with comments from different political and industrial leaders basically pronouncing that the recession is "dead" and the recovery is "well on the way"...

to be revisited in 6 months see where we are???

dax hourly..short idea

short here or on a bounce..stop above the highs..5745..target 5365 from wedge breakdown

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Silver due a correction..if not more?


looks ike we tagged the upper line of the trend channel...good short , stop close by...at best head to lower trend channel line...OR maybe even further... A break above that uppe rline on good volume says get out of short!

Gold latest




Wednesday, September 16, 2009

intel weekly and daily...

Looks a low risk short on rally to 20.3....200 week MA... significant move above there and looks to be back in the range 19-25, BUT until then ....

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

eur usd..again..


EUR USd looks like nearing significant resistance..maybe one "overthrow" of the BLUE line...

if it trades significantly above that then something else is going on..and the picture for the euro remains bulish

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

euro dollar monthly...time to sell euro???


Looks toppy here..and a classic retest of a break of trend line...low risk high reward..remember MONTHLY chart so long term stuff....

Thursday, September 3, 2009

gbp jpy 8 hr


nearing support...a break above 151.5 and further rally to correct the decline since 163

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

L O N G hot summer... GOLD ready to break out???

Looks like GOLD is poised to "make a decision".. it has been in a triangle since FEB 09, today looks to be breaking out to the upside, watch the HIGHS, if it can clear those may be a good run.to the upside...

Friday, July 24, 2009

The BIG picture ..again...


getting close to trendline resistance on dow...9380 ish..will it hold or will we push through?

Still looks like only 3 waves down..so this could be fourth wave up in progress? Or is the bull back???

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

dollar index..too many bears????


seems like the world is bearish on the dollar....is that a contrarian sign? from 2002 it has fallen approx 40%...and end 2008 broke above descending trend line...is there still life in the dollar?

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