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Mood!

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Rangebound..wedges?



Olive pruning time...25 trees pruned...ready for next year...

On to markets..Equity markets look range bound...forming wedges (bearish patterns..) and looks like a few more weeks left to complete...THEN another leg down?

Meanwhile Xmas trading will be light and volatile...Santa Claus rally next week? ..though most peopel are EXPECTING one...will he be giving out pieces of COAL this year?

Oil tried to rally but failed....not good for the equity markets. Gold could be in period of consolidation after a nice run up, but as interest rates around the world head to ZERO, Gold becomes more attractive to investors.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Some more CRUDE thoughts

Crude oil and commodities generally have had a good rally over the last 2 days. Spotlight on crude..it has broken above 3rd descending fanline so we may have a push to 62 (65.3 is a 23.8 % retrace of fall from 150). Initial resistance at 48 (being tested today) then 55.5... this rally would tie in with the rally in equities and euro (also seems to have cleared resistance today).

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Possible reverse Head and shoulders DOW target 10040!

See chart...pull back to 8500 8450 level...BUY looking for 10040...stop 8125..risk 375 reward 1540...

LOOKS like shorter term trading the order of the day...for a while...Santa rally...
BUT on the daily looks like we need a close above 10500 for things to change to bullish longer term...

Look for commodities to confirm the und OIL GOLD etc etc...also a weaker dollar...if those are not there SUSPECT the rally!

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Yesterday's late rally..and other things




Yesterday's late rally in Dow looked like either PPT or BUY programs...OIL, GOLD and EURO did not follow...so looked like a classic bull trap...again..

Look at DOW chart above...

The KEY seems to be watch the YEN...a strong yen has been signal for continued selling...see JPY chart.

Any turnaround in markets should be signalled by weaker yen, stronger euro, and rising OIL...and other commodities...YES OIL is POSITIVELY correlated with stocks over the long term..ie OIL falls stocks fall, oil rises stocks rise. Look at any long term charts of oil and dow...

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Taking the red path (for now)



Look at charts in previous post...seems we are taking the red path for now..but we may be in process of setting up for a higher low and then a more sustained rally? The key will be the lows in November holding....Looking at various weekly charts..EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, OIL....all look oversold...however on daily charts most have formed flags....so another leg down may be on the cards.... see charts above...

This leg down may be short and sharp...final exhaustion...last of the sellers - at least for a while!!

Thursday, November 27, 2008

THANKS ! giving




WOW what a rally.....

Still seems a bear rally...very convenient before Thanksgiving...definitely for the govt better than falling before Thanksgiving. The US markets are given a lot of air time in USA so psychologically a big rally ahead of one of the MOST important shopping days in the calendar will definitely give some boost of confidence...how much? Probably not significant...WHO will be borrowing more money??

The best idea so far is from McHugh (www.technicalindicatorindex.com) rebate all taxes paid in last 10 years. This would give the "man on the street" MONEY in his pocket. Raise consumption taxes (VAT, IVA, sales tax etc), and let people DECIDE what to do with their money. Giving BILLIONS to banks will not solve anything...apart form keeping them in the manner they are accustomed to! By giving money to the BASE of the PYRAMID..it will pave a way for a more sustained recovery. NO MORE BAIL OUTS for badly managed companies...let them FAIL...let small to mid size companies take their place..in the future these will be the large companies of today...

The governments can then recoup some on consumption taxes (NOT income), and as the economy improves, so will tax revenues from corporations.

to the chart above

Dow testing the lower channel it broke down out of...so....if we break back in to the channel it may have been a FALSE break lower..and we may stay in channel ( probably need to get above 8930 )...upper line of channel is 10053 so we may get trading range of 8800-10100 for a while..

9600-9800 is RESISTANCE..

IF we break down from here ...WATCH OUT BELOW...

Look at the banking index chart as well..approaching resistance..if it gets through there may reach descending trendline....IF

Thursday, November 20, 2008

The final capitulation

Well we got the break in the DOW below 8k, very quickly to 7500...personally would be looking to buy something soon for the quick pop...

7k? Oil also down to interesting levels.... GOLD steady...

Looks like maybe one more BIG panic day down or two ..and then we rally...

HOWEVER... the more the govts feel obliged to intervene the lower we may go and the pops will be not so large!

Keep eye on dollar..one more move up vs other currencies...and then that may be it..will look to GBP near 1.40...

euro yen near 95-100

euro usd - 1.19

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Still the same picture...


Have a look at DOW chart..still the same picture. Some newsletters I read are slowly turning bullish - SHORT term only....but the picture seems to say we are just consolidating the recent sharp down move. Support at 8000 in DOW...is everybody bottom picking there? If so a move below that level decisively will put the targets mentioned in previous post in sight!

PPT? are they holding back the tide? Will the dam finally burst? Will the US carmakers get a bail out? If so - WHAT FOR? As with AIG, some banks, and in general badly run companies, they should be allowed to FAIL - free market forces. They are dinosaurs, make way for the small mammals !!

I am still waiting for the final capitulation....maybe it will be after one more rally to top of trend channel (see graph)...only a clear break above 9800 on good volume will change the picture medium term... let's get it over with SOONER rather than later!!

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Beware full Moon! November 13th...

Full moon Thursday 13th Nov...

full moon has known effects on behaviour of lots of animals (include humans in that category!)

Could be we get the panic day soon..the way the market is behaving today...(wednesday 12th) no mercy for "buyers", will they capitulate soon? And at what level....

7200-7600 DOW....best case 5600 worst case..

Gold and oil also being pulled lower..where will OIL be in 3 -5 years? Will Asia (China, India etc etc) stop wanting cars? Will we all be on electric cars? OIL will be a buy soon, however psychology is ruling the markets - be careful short term...

OR...

Will the full moon initiate full blown lunacy ? A HUGE rally from these levels? Who knows ? Trade what you see...

Friday, November 7, 2008

DAX "AFTER"

This is the "after" view ("before" is in previous post) Now what? Is this a correction of the recent rally ? OR will we head to new lows....difficult decisions...middle of the range....if short then stop would have to be above recent high, if long stop below the OCT lows...BIG range HIGH risk. PERSONALLY - MHO only !! I feel a test and possible break of October lows is on the cards...before we get the TRADEABLE rally (ie 3-4 months) and possibly 25-30 % up move...when will we get to the lows? over next 2 weeks...so whilst bearish for the short term will be looking at BUYS if we get the break of OCT lows. Other things I am looking at - GOLD a move to below 700 would have me put on buying boots again, and also as a LONG term play - OIL near 50 USD, I would start accumulating

Thursday, October 30, 2008

DAX time for a correction?


DAX has rallied 25 % off the low at 4000, too much too soon? On shorter term charts also showing a wedge formation (usually bearish), once we break below we should see a correction of this rally - if not new market lows...ALso volume has been falling on the rally...maybe a throwover of top line then - fall..

As I said in previous posts..we need to build a base for a longer term sustainable rally..

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

too much , too soon? or too much - too late?


Markets rally 10 % in ONE day !- mainly shorts covering positions, and the fact that markets are SEVERELY oversold SHORT TERM.. - so what does that mean? Mainly that long term investors have not had time to commit "new" money to the market...LONGER term problems have not been solved - expect more volatile trading and possibly one more LEG down..


so what would be ideal ? Another test of the lows and a few weeks trading near the lows - giving time to build a base the (maybe) we can move up over the medium term....

Quick moves like yesterdays are hot air - and when it cools down it all comes crashing down again -


Interest rates cut to 1% in US of A - will it really make a difference? to the main news headlines it will - and MAYBE add a little confidence to the market - BUT in reality the problems we face are caused by too much debt and too few savings...cutting to 1% hardly encouraging new savings! Plus with all the liquidity being given to banks interest rates are effectively already at 1 % or lower - but not to the MAN in the street....

Friday, October 24, 2008

END of dollar rally???




Talking heads keep saying dollar rally is "flight to safety" - RUBBISH...imho it is purely demand for dollars form US international funds being liquidated and repatriation of dollars to the US. HOW Long will it last? I'm sure we are close to a top for the dollar..look at the charts...extreme overbought/oversold (depends which currency you are looking from!)

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Rain

Been raining here on and off for a few weeks now..ground sodden. Managed to plant mange tout, self sown sweetcorn, and French beans still have aubergines, butter nut squash, and peppers. Next in the ground when it dries out a bit: cabbages, cauliflowers, broccoli, onions, broad beans. Olive harvest next for some nice virgin oil..

DOW JONES - bottom coming


Looking at the chart, looks like this steep descent must end soon (relatively speaking) could be another 1000 points away !! But worth bearing in mind...an all out panic/ washout - call it what you will - would be good for a start and a decent "tradeable" rally. Another plus would be when CNBC reporters stop trying to pick bottoms!!

BE NIMBLE!!

GOLD

What's happened to gold? Looks like the classic case of "throwing the baby out with the bathwater" Look at the longer term chart..self explanatory. Key levels..650 if broken then expect test of longer term uptrend at 550.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

BAIL OUT? Or time to BALE out?

After much arm bending and the scariness of last Mondays 700 point fall in the DOW, the US govt got their way!! (We knew they would) - the markets rallied ahead of the "expected" then fell on the news - the classic buy the rumour sell the news....

NOW WHAT?? Well...it doesn't REALLY solve anything fundamentally...the real problem is housing and falling prices...something everybody will just have to work through....however what does it mean for the markets?

MY own HO; we are close to a short term bottom..(1-2 weeks away)...then election fever will kick in, a bit of optimism following the initial negative reaction.

another few big down days will have me looking for longs in the markets..will post charts later

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