Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Groundhog Day !! DAX

From  October 17th post..

"bumping against resistance, 7440.7480 key levels.  A break above that opens way for much higher prices."

Well here we are again...

"Possible that we rally and fail at 7500, that would make for a more bearish case, but we would need to see a break below key levels below 7170.

Likelihood is a rally to test 7500 and then a retrace; BUY the dip (If nimble enough trade the short side but beware of sustained move higher)"

We moved a lot lower than expected touching 6950, so the market is shaking out longs and shorts, and has effectively stayed in a range with extremes 7470 and 6950.

NOW we are near 7500 again.  Will THIS time be different?

European markets are near highs
US markets are still between 4.5 and 7 % off highs.
EURO has been strong
Precious metals weak



1. broken out of bull flag, in which case a "test" of the red line is probable before heading higher.  The higher we go without a correction, the probability increase that we see a correction of at least 3 %, before heading higher.


2. The DAX is forming a right angle broadening TOP 
from Edwards and Magee " Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"
"..Right Angled Broadening formations carry bearish implications, regardless of which side is horizontal.."
".. A horizontal side indicates either accumulation or distribution at a fixed price, depending of course on which side is horizontal. And it follows, logically, that any decisive break through the horizontal side has immediate forceful significance. Thus if a Broadening price pattern with a flat top boundary develops after a good advance, and if prices finally burst through that top line on high volume and close above it to a conclusive extent (roughly 3%), then it is safe to assume that the preceding uptrend will be resumed and carried on for a worthwhile move.  This does happen, although it is rare.  The odds favour the opposite; i.e., the eventual victory of the forces of distribution which created the horizontal top and a break away into an extensive decline"

So a break above 7500 MUST 
be on HIGH volume
preferably a decisive close above that (suggested 3%)

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