Nasdaq leading the market...longer view

Nasdaq weekly chart....

alternative scenario in red....
either way ..7 weeks up...probabilities are INCREASING for the next significant move to be DOWN...
a higher low would put us in the red scenario. Then possible for rally to that long term down trend line

BKX revisited

BKX today

We are at crucial junction...which formation will win? The banks led this move up..a break below the wedge likely means the first rally is done...










BKX 15th April

crude

self explanatory...

weakness in crude = weak equity markets

another wdge

SAVED by central ..ankers

PARIS (Dow Jones)--There is a consensus amongst central bankers that there could be an economic recovery in 2010, Philippe Mastadt, president of the European Investment Bank and chairman of its board of directors.

Mastadt also said commercial banks are still having difficulties and problems remain with toxic assets in some European countries.

These are the same ..ankers who CLEARLY saw the problems we are now experiencing...

bear market rallies

reading through my BIBLE of technical analysis ( Technical Analysis of Stock Trends - Edwards and Magee)...

"Rising wedge typifies a situation which is growing progressively weaker in the technical sense"

"Once prices break out of a wedge downside, they USUALLY waste little time in retracing ALL of the ground gained within the wedge itself and sometimes more."

"Rising wedges are common in bear market rallies"

So yesterday we had the "break" of the wedge formation...the rally started well but since 23rd March the move up has been overlapping....look at previous bear flags/wedges..

SO looks like we retrace a good portion of the rally from march 9th lows IF NOT ALL and maybe more...

Banking index bear or bull......???

Bearish wedge forming...

or bullish head and shoulders...

either way looks like retest at 30 level (approx 10 % fall)...

IBM breaking down?

usd jpy

self explanatory..

weakness in dollar vs yen has signalled weakness in equity mkts in the past year..co this could be the long awaited correction of the 26% rally in equities since March

looks like bearish wedge broken to downside (within what may be a larger bearish flag)
1st target 96.7/97,

quick tips

Medicines...

We have tried to avoid using antibiotics over the last few years...and one of the best things we have found for prevention of colds is H2O2 (hydrogen peroxide)

We use 1 3% solution in the ears when we "feel" a cold coming on...

Also we gargle with it 3 times a day when we get that "tickly sore throat OH no I´m coming down with a cold sensation" !!!

here´s a good link for all the uses of H2O2..the ones the BIG pharma companies don´t want you to use!!

http://www.h2o2-4u.com/house.html

Also Apple cider vinegar has also helped warts, sinus infections, etc etc..google it for uses!!

step back and look from a distance

Just trawling charts...sometimes when the shorter term action is unclear it´s best to step back and look at longer term, ie weekly and monthly charts.. a bit like looking at a painting too closely, step back and it becomes clearer

NDX which has been strong in recent rally...

broken above horizontal resistance at 1234 and now testing next level at 1305..

weekly chart shows 3 waves down, (not an Elliott wave expert) but this shows we could be in wave 4 rally (at least in NDX) which should give choppy trading for a while..ie short term stuff...

EURO POUND

BIG TRIANGLE forming...

gut feeling is we break down, ie pound will get stronger... EUROPE perceived to be stronger than UK, but in reality I think they are behind ie the worst is still to come..UK most know that the situation is BAD!! And psychologically a lot of talk still about parity...


PLUS: Pound has been showing strength against the dollar...

still not there..

DOW despite the news STILL has not broken through the down channel...today COULD be the day...with the JOBS REPORT out...

charts S&P, DOW...

heavy resistance in S&P 850 -870 level...

S&P crossroads..

Here's how it looks to me:

The recent fall has broken the current up trend from the lows..

so PRIMARY TREND DOWN comes back into play..

1. yellow lines..one more push up to test the trendline 850 max, then a fall to 720 level..form a HIGHER LOW, and then attack recent highs again..

HOWEVER...

a break back below descending trend line 3 ..resumption of down trend and NEW lows possible..

2.we rally up through here and break 870 level..(major resistance).. then in for a longer up move but working through the CONGESTION LEVEL..up to 940.. CHOPPY.. above 940 then 1020


At the moment seems like a lot of people are going for a rally from here (ie from near 770 level) gut feel markets do the unexpected!!