reflective time...

An aside from the markets..

Now we are coming up to summer ..(at least in S Spain) and the clouds are clearing ..thank God !!...we are finally getting to the task of clearing the land..and need to get the vegetables in the ground..

With the weird weather across Europe and especially down here..it seems that we are in store for higher food prices..some early vegetables have been wiped out by waterlogged conditions and only now is it possible to plant.  the problem being that the plantlets will not have the "good" i.e. not too hot temperatures for very long so roots will be less developed.  The "heat" will arrive soon, which means a lot of plants  will not have developed bug enough root systems to carry them through the summer, and once it heats up here the top 3 inches or so turn to rock!!



If you are interested in a Southern Spanish holiday home click here .

Euro daily basing or consolidating?

Couple of possible scenarios.  For now looks like we will get a choppy rally up in  wave iv  before a wave v down..

IF the move down has finished we should see some good mini rallies to signal a change in trend

DAX daily

Whilst bullish sentiment is still rising..with the markets..the DAX seems to be lagging..

 We COULD be in the final move of an abc correction which when finished will herald a large move down..
The DAX has lagged other major indices, when usually it is LEADING the indices higher...

OF course all can change, but MAY be a WARNING against the decidedly bullish sentiment prevailing.

DAX..

4 hr chart of DAX

Why figures are meaningless!

 

Jobs figures are meaningless! As is most data from the govt or associated "independent" bodies. 

The figures today came out "better than expected"...BUT the fine print tells us that last month the data was WORSE than originally reported!

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." ..M Twain

DOW bull back..or pull back?

Looking at the rally from March 09 we can see 3 drives up.. a break of the up trend and now in a rally question is "Is this part of the correction of March 09 rally?"  OR  "is this the start of another leg up?"

BEAR CASE..
 

1.  We have 3 drives up, so would expect a "correction" at least
2. Current correction has not even retraced 23.6 % of the rally..normally would expect to at elast 38.2 % or 50 %.
3. Could be we have made an A  down, B up (currently), and next will be C down similar scenario to post here Dow Transport..clues


BULL CASE

1. retrace has been small so far..indicates "lack of selling"
2.  Close to making new highs for the current rally
3. Could be we have ALREADY made A B C correction...

EITHER way we should see resolution soon..maybe Friday NFP day (non farm payrolls)..

Dax  is still lagging FTSE and DOW