The markets are playing with US!
Breakouts to the upside - no follow-through
Breakouts to the downside - no follow-through
WEARING market participants out
Basically, the bus is slowly being emptied -
BOTH buses!
BEAR BUS
if you can trade a bear move and get it RIGHT - it can be exhilarating - Think rollercoaster ride
BULL BUS
Bull moves - slow and steady (generally) not as much adrenalin rush
What does this look like on a chart?
Nasdaq weekly
clear rising wedge (usually a bearish formation, although to really clear the bus, typically it will rally above the line (shorts will run for cover and bulls will load up), before a sharp reversal.
Conversely - if it breaks down, similarly it will fall sharply and then rally to re-test the break - catching many market participants out
With ALGO trading dominating the current market, the moves will be exaggerated
Step back to see the TREES!
Technical analysis of Major Markets, F/X, and anything that can be traded This is my diary for trading Views expressed in this are only for educational purposes. They ARE NOT recommendations to BUY or SELL anything!! ALL comments and criticisms welcome.
Quotes
Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.
— Marcus Aurelius
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Friday, October 18, 2019
Saturday, October 12, 2019
Still playing the markets
TRUMP changes mind
"Trump had said previously he would not be satisfied with a partial deal to resolve his effort to change China’s trade, intellectual property and industrial policy practices, which he argues cost millions of U.S. jobs. On Friday he said he had decided that a phased approach was appropriate."
So it looks like the back and forth of "deal or no deal" will be an ongoing theme for months and possibly years to come.
The markets were euphoric about the "latest deal" though the details were not released until after the market close on Friday -
So some scepticism to come for next week?
Charts :
easy money and trade optimism are pushing indices to new highs, bell-weather stock AAPL, also reached a new high on Friday.
DOW daily
Friday left what could be a shooting star (www.investopedia.com)
Warning that uptrend may fail..
"Trump had said previously he would not be satisfied with a partial deal to resolve his effort to change China’s trade, intellectual property and industrial policy practices, which he argues cost millions of U.S. jobs. On Friday he said he had decided that a phased approach was appropriate."
So it looks like the back and forth of "deal or no deal" will be an ongoing theme for months and possibly years to come.
The markets were euphoric about the "latest deal" though the details were not released until after the market close on Friday -
So some scepticism to come for next week?
Charts :
easy money and trade optimism are pushing indices to new highs, bell-weather stock AAPL, also reached a new high on Friday.
DOW daily
Friday left what could be a shooting star (www.investopedia.com)
Warning that uptrend may fail..
The key to this will be the price action on Monday.
Thursday, October 10, 2019
China v USA v Europe
Which one is which?
The world order is changing - and we are witnessing a LONG TERM shift in power from West to East which could last decades !
Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Dow Industrials
still in the throes of a trade war dominated environment - but longer-term NEWS doesn't matter?
Still looks like an ED; In August, it broke the lower uptrend line; and then consolidated for the month, then breaking higher - HOWEVER the rally failed at 27500 (possible DOUBLE TOP?)
Now threatening to test the lower trend line of the ED (wedge).
If the ED has completed - expect a breakdown of the lower trend line - followed by a more prolonged bear move - (correction of 2016 brally or even the 2008 rally)
If it HASN'T completed; expect a bounce and a rally to new highs (throw-over), and THEN a rapid retrace of the ED and breakdown as above.
If this is just a consolidation, a sustained break above the top of the wedge (ED) and then more prolonged bull move (pushed by lower rates, China trade deal)
Tuesday, October 1, 2019
NASDAQ daily
So longer-term the charts look like a topping pattern is in progress -click here for NDX LONG term - previous post
Looking at the daily chart - looks like what could be called and ENDING DIAGONAL in progress.
More information here: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliottwave/elliott-wave-theory-ending-diagonal/
IDEALLY - a new high (overthrow of upper trend line) and then a sharp fall
DAILY closer up
can see the bounces off the lower rising trend line
clear wedge forming
1 If it breaks down from here - there could be a sharp move down
2 if it rallies - could test the upper trend line and break temporarily higher..
On the 2 hour chart - we can see we the level closer; a break down below the trend line and likely quick fall and possibly a larger fall to finally correct the rally from 2008
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