copper..no decision yet....

Copper no decision yet...broke the up trend..but no follow through as yet...

eur yen..still a bearish case for equities

S&P 500 monthly

The more i look at the monthly charts..it seems that we are entering a wave 5 down..not an elliott wave expert but learning..

one thing I find is the closer you look the more confusing it is, constantly changing wave counts...
o

dax monthly

looks to me like we have started wave 5 down..whether we make a new low or just test the lows...we shall see...
On the monthly chart it seems so clear...!!

eur jpy and gbp jpy breakdown??

crude correction finished?

is crude due one more raly..or is the correction of the fall finished? Now heading down to new lows with equities?

dax

head and shoulders..also showing up in DOW and S&P...
too obvious or significant.?

Hot summer...

the last week has been above 42 deg C here..107 deg F..

Still looking at cable..looks to have found a short term top at 1.66, now in a retracement, possible one more move up once this is done...OR..we head straight down from here..

mirroring the equity markets....

the jury is still out on whether this is a "correction" of the rally from march lows...OR if the is the START of the next leg down...

Summer trading most people anticipate as "quiet"...maybe this one will be different..

dow charts...


plus for bulls..

dow still above that down trend channel ...

trading below that will bring the bears back out of hibernation..at least for a move to 7800 maybe 7500

cable...

To my untrained eye.. this looks like previous charts ..if right this could see cable test the lows again..and possibly lower

LONG TERM...

http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/2009/06/daily-and-monthly-view.html

so caution is warranted if long ..and sell any strength shorter term...

cable also strongly correlated with crude oil..and crude oil correlated with equity indices

FTSE not there YET!

Today's strong showing in European markets... (FTSE + 2%, DAX +2.2%)...but look at chart..NOWT has changed ..as yet..

FTSE needs to clear 4520 with some force, to avoid a false break higher...

DAX needs to clear 5170...

UNTIL then we are at the TOP of the recent range in the FTSE.....

DAILY and MONTHLY view

STEP BACK TO SEE A CLEARER IMAGE!!!!

DOW:Above 200 ma (just)...also above down trend channel

resistances at 9140, and 9460 (38.2 % retrace of fall from all time highs AND trend resistance from monthly..see below)..

INTERESTING on the monthly chart we can see CLEAR 3 waves ONLY...mostlooking at completed 5 waves so we couldget a wave 5 down to new lows.

FTSE: accumulation or distribution...??

Looks like even tho rally is getting long in the tooth one more burst up si possible before a meaningful correction of the rally from March lows...whether that means NEW lows we have to see...

DAX: Look at monthly charts, also LOOKS like we have had only 3 waves down so far....is the longer picture TELLING US SOMETHING?

euro gbp in for a big move?

BIG triangle..measured move from a break downside would be to 0.7660

about 1.30 € to pound...

good for pensioners and £ earning ex pats!

CONVERSELY a a failed break and a rally back up through the descending trendline may mean parity on the cards again...

GBP JPY ..short idea..

Self explanatory ..LOOK at charts!    

DAX 2 hour charts Diamond formation?

Extract from Edwards and Magee  "  Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"

 

"Diamond is not a common pattern. Since it's development requires fairly active markets, it RARELY occurs at bottom reversals.  It's "natural habitat" is Major Tops and high volume tops which precede extensive Intermediate reactions.  generally the new trend carries WELL beyond the minimum retracement. "

 

LET's see which way it breaks!!

Minimum targets....

on downside 4640

IF it breaks higher..5101 roughly

dow

 Also what about THAT big descending trendline?  A break above and THINGS become more BULLISH...IF we break

BKX again..!

Looks like H&S formation won over on the short term...

HOWEVER also looks like the bearish wedge is still valid....

from Edwards and Magee  "prices almost always fluctuate within the wedges confines for at elast 2/3 fo the distance from the base (beginning of convergence) to the apex...in many cases they rise clear to the apex and in some they actiually go a short distance beyond in a LAST GASP rally before collapsing"

link to previous BKX post

http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/2009/04/bkx-revisited.html

nasdaq

Finally a break through the uptrend since March lows...now will it follow through...??

1/3 correction 1306

1/2 correction 1239

Dow 1929 /1931 and NOW....

 DOW 1929..had a 49 % fall from the highs...then over 6 months recouped 50 % of the fall....

BUT then a down trend which lasted 2 yrs and 3 months..with  a total loss form the 1929 highs of 89%...

are WE going to see similar??  

comparisons abound with that era..history doesn't always repeat exactly...BUT human emotions are unchanged...so perhaps...

On the plus we may see a "bull" run for 6 months...but with world economied mired in debt, and joblessness the long run looks none too good...

DOW NOW... and possible paths...highlighted...in blue arrows

Nasdaq leading the market...longer view

Nasdaq weekly chart....

alternative scenario in red....
either way ..7 weeks up...probabilities are INCREASING for the next significant move to be DOWN...
a higher low would put us in the red scenario. Then possible for rally to that long term down trend line

BKX revisited

BKX today

We are at crucial junction...which formation will win? The banks led this move up..a break below the wedge likely means the first rally is done...










BKX 15th April