DAX FTSE spread..again

Well the spread went a little higher than anticipated...added to the position..but looks to be coming in now..
The negative divergence still in play, MACD turning down...

DAX monthly or L O N G T E R M ..!

DAX bumping up against some serious resistance around 7540 level..after breaking out of the 6440 level.  Longer term we may see test of that level (6440)..  shorter term support at 6950 and resistance around 7540...

Key levels to watch... so at 7440 good risk reward ( LONGER term) for a short...a break above 7540 and we test highs  @ 8000 !

SOME more negative divergence CABLE

Shorted at 16210 stop 16320 open target...

If we do break higher could be an IHS formation ..
best seen on weekly chart

Of course being weekly chart important to see a confirmed break out and retest of theneck line..to avoid false breaks.

FTSE DAX spread UPDATE.....

Following on form previous post...the spread got as high as 1270....now dropping back to 1187.  As can be seen on the chart this is setting up an even bigger negative divergence, so we may have a PROPER top in the spread and LONGER term looks like FTSE will outperform the DAX (unless of course it breaks out above that channel.. TA always has alternative scenarios, it's all about probabilities!)

The weekly chart also shows negative divergence.  If the spread narrows to 700, potential profit is 1000 pips per unit

FTSE DAX spread

Looking at this..
Selling DAX  simultaneously buying FTSE especially around 1200 spread....

IF markets start correcting FTSE has traditionally been more defensive than the DAX so in theory the spread should narrow as in previous market corrections/bear trends

FTSE follow up

Well the FTSE is retesting that broken trend line.  Now what?  Well the DOW is above 12k, DAX is still struggling against the highs, and actually any selling it seems to lose momentum pretty quickly....

SO  my guess is this may turn quite quickly if any selling hits the US mkts.  having said that am long FTSE from 5907 trailing stop now at around 5976, any sudden fall and I will be stopped out...

A good trade may be long FTSE short DAX....

FTSE topped or consolidating for another push up?

FTSE has broken the short term uptrend

Will it repeat the last down trend forming a BULL flag?  One month it took...action in yellow circles


OR has it topped..?  Likely test of the broken trend line at 5990 possible also a test of the highs...

HI hol Silver

Looks like silver is in final stages of a blow off top...(MAYBE !)

 

But looking at the monthly chart history seems to say that there will be better opportunities to go long silver...(LONGS look higher risk now)

When it turns it will be painful....for longs.  Timing a top on a parabolic move up is also tricky..!! 

FTSE broke through Resistance...where to?

  Looking at monthly...

If it keeps going 6500 looks like the target.... IF.....

FTSE near some tough resistance

FTSE rally hos now reached the down trend line from 2007 high best seen on weekly chart below:

FTSE WEEKLY

Also on the daily chart looks close to some strong horizontal resistance areas...is there a possible head and shoulders forming ?  ssshhhhh...

FTSE DAILY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seems like the probability is weighted in favour of a bear move from here, either the BIG one, OR (more likely IMHO) a move back into the rising channel with lower boundary at 5200 ish

CABLE...

Looks like cable is nearing significant resistance zone...

 

Could be one more move up to 1.65 if the USD carries on being sold..

Longer term view..MONTHLY Chart

has worked off the oversold condition at point 3 

RSI is now back to neutral level

IF wave count is correct longer term should revisit lows ie 1.30 level and possibly more

DAX breaking down from Diamond formation?

Looks like the Diamond Topping pattern is coming to fruition..with today's action (SO FAR!)
http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/2010/10/dax-diamond-formation.html

 6124 looks like temporary support, expect a possible retest of the breakdown level around 6200, if we get above 6230 ..back in the range and possible FAILURE of the DIAMOND.

If 6124 breaks , 6080/6060 level next support

LONGER TERM

 A break of 6060 brings 5850 into play...

DAX diamond formation?

"The diamond formation reversal pattern is found relatively infrequently. When it does form, however, it usually does so at market tops rather than at bottoms."

DAX topping or consolidation?

Dax has been in a range since Feb this year... UPPER BOUNDARY at 6360

 Could be an ascending triangle (bullish scenario) with a break above 6360 signalling new highs..OR could be part of a rising wedge (which if it breaks t the downside would be BEARISH).

Since we are near the TOP of the range got to be short here, looking for at least  a test of the lower boundary, or a decisive break lower (VERY BEARISH).

The weekly chart shows possible rising wedge, and the range bound formation, in relation to the all time highs

BACK.....

Kids BACK to school...

Wife BACK to work

BACK to looking at the markets...

Starting off with some LONG TERM charts...

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL ..The HEADLINE index (the one EVERY one watches, talks about etc)

The KEY level seems to be 11200 on the upside... 500 points away..
VOLUME doesn't SEEM to be confirming this move up.....

Many BEARS are DESPONDENT and some signs of CAPITULATION
Trading near the TOP of a channel..

DAILY CHART

Shows proximity to the monthly channel
Looking extended short term..pullback then a final move up to test that channel?

DAX MONTHLY

Also nearing RESISTANCE best seen on  WEEKLY and DAILY charts..


DAX WEEKLY & DAILY CHARTS

NO CHANGE!!

Am on holiday, and there is no change for the markets in my view...

This previous post sums it up...click on it to see

A move above this years high delays the eventual process, but only delays.
 
DAX fractals still there...

 Am in the UK and the noise on the ground is not good...companes looking to reduce staff further, house prices stalling again...

 where will DOW be in 10 years time?

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  20000+
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  15000+
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  10000+
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  5000+
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  less than 5000

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AUDUSD weekly..

Bear case..I like the 23 week ma moving below the 50 week ma ..just...waiting to see if we get a more decisive move down..or if this is consolidation for a move higher...

We could be forming a bear flag for the next move down in which case I expect a break of the "flash crash" lows around 80..

if we are in a bull run a move above 89/90 means new highs or at least a test of the old highs

FRACTALS

Looking at DAX weekly something caught my eye..maybe it's the heat!

The areas highlighted by rectangles look similar,,looks like one more thrust up to test resistance at 6340..then a pull back..one more test and ...F
                                             A
                                                 L
                                                    L


A break above 6340 (clear) means new highs probably due..

USDJPY

Seems like YEN strength vs dollar = weak equity markets, so here's the USDJPY weekly..

Looks like tracing out a triangle, and a break below the lower line could tie in with a BIG fall in equity markets. May be that we stay in the range for a while longer, as it is a weekly chart...but more warning signs??