Saturday, February 13, 2010

Dow weekly

Having a look at the DOW weekly and playing with some moving avgs (ma's)

200 week ma, 55 week ma and 34 week ma (the last 2 are Fibonacci numbers) Fibonacci numbers explained

On the bullish side it looks like we have had 3 waves up (Elliott Wave theory) and maybe one more up to complete a 5, maybe testing the 200 week ma?

On the bearish side we have 3 waves up (EW corrective wave of the fall from 2007, MACD has just turned lower.  Key levels may be the 9760 and 9000 area for a bounce in both bullish and bearish cases.

If bull then we get a new high, and then a wave 2 down, which may also be close to testing the lows in March 09

if bear then the next move up will not make a new high, and will be a wave 2 up...before a catastrophic wave 3 DOWN...

As can be seen in both bearish and bullish cases the moves are similar, that explains why trading can be so difficult, especially if you start off with pre-conceived ideas!! 

Here's another look at some monthly charts S&P monthly and DAX monthly both from JULY 09...

Here are the S&P and DAX monthly as of this week.

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