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Thursday, December 27, 2018

Does the 1000 point rally mean the bottom is in?

So a huge points rally on the first day of trading after Christmas day - is it significant?

1000 points IS a big move - BUT when looked at in PERCENTAGE terms - yesterday's move did NOT even make it in to the top 20 moves since 1900 !

For source click here : Percentage moves of Dow Jones Industrial

Now look at the daily chart:
1. after  a down trend of 16 days it is normal to have a reaction rally
2.  can be 4-7 days long
3. some upside targets 23231, 24284 ( Fibonacci levels)
4. Longer term down trend still intact until 26100 breached

So this kind of move will generate a lot of short covering - so volatility will still be a major feature of the markets.

Pick your moments to go long or re-short




What about other markets?
FTSE daily

No break of down trend


DAX daily
Again no break of down trend


Strategy:
Probably range bound until New Year -
Correction which will alleviate oversold conditions
Once this is done - one more move down the real panic wash out

DAX 10220
FTSE 6300 (BUT may be affected by currency moves)
DOW new target 20k

CAVEAT: Watch the down trend and especially the much higher levels for a change in trend


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