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Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius

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Thursday, January 3, 2019

2019 !

So a new year begins

looking at 2 long term charts - the DOW (headline index ) and the DAX (Germany - Europe's largest economy)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL monthly

!. This shows the decline at the end of 2018 and puts it into perspective related to the 2 rallies; from 2016 (Trump rally) and the 2008 rally.
2.  The rally on 2/1/19 failed to reach the 24200 target
3.  at the moment it looks like it can test the long term up trend (blue line) and there is horizontal support (look left)

will look at shorter time frames over the next dew days
Market view can change - but it seems that unless we get a trade deal out of Trump and China (and this may end up being a few days of euphoria before reality sets in ) then likelihood is DOW can head to 20k and possibly 18500




DAX monthly

Break of the up trend since 2011
Up trend from 2009  - trend line support 9100 and rising
LONG term trend line support 5900 and rising
horizontal support 10050 and 8066
Head and shoulders target minimum 10220


So 2 major markets seem to be in sync
 A trade deal with Trump (USA) and China would more than likely have a sharp rally so be wary - if short -
HOWEVER - in TA NEWS doesn't matter and if the primary trend is now down - this will re-assert itself

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