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Sunday, August 4, 2019

Longer term view Nasdaq

So although the sell-off at the end of the last week will be blamed on Trump tweets, in reality, news usually doesn't matter in the medium term.  so where next for the markets?

We can't predict this, but we can look at various scenarios, and assign a probability to them.

Nasdaq weekly chart

Technically - the negative divergence between price and RSI (price making new highs - RSI not) - usually a negative sign for the market
The bull market has lasted over 10 years to date

What are the scenarios?

1.  This fall is the start of a correction of the December 208 rally to new highs.  looking at Fib retracements 62 % is quite common but the correction could stop earlier than that.
This is the most BULLISH scenario - supported by uptrend still intact, interest rate outlook conducive to more risk.
2  The recent fall is the start of the Trump rally correction - this would be a deeper fall and targeting the lows in December

3 The bull market is ended and the correction/bear market will correct the rally from 2008

Scenario 1 is more likely at present; low-interest rates, an election year in USA 2020,; however if the falls become more pronounced or a rally fails to exceed the recent ATH - then should be on the look out for deeper corrections.



A quick look at the daily charts also shows the negative divergence.


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